. Pantai merupakan kawasan yang sering dimanfaatkan untuk berbagai kegiatan manusia, namun seringkali upaya pemanfaatan tersebut menyebabkan permasalahan pantai sehingga garis pantai berubah. Salah satu cara yang dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui perubahan garis pantai yaitu dengan membuat model matematika. Model perubahan garis pantai berbentuk persamaan diferensial parsial dapat diselesaikan secara analitik dengan menggunakan metode transformasi Elazki. Metode transformasi Elzaki merupakan salah satu bentuk transformasi integral yang diperoleh dari integral Fourier sehingga didapatkan transformasi Elzaki dan sifat-sifat dasarnya. Perubahan garis pantai pada penelitian ini dipengaruhi oleh adanya groin. Penyelesaian model perubahan garis pantai dengan metode transformasi Elzaki dilakukan dengan menerapkan transformasi Elzaki pada model perubahan garis pantai untuk memperoleh model perubahan garis pantai yang baru, kemudian menerapkan syarat batas, kemudian menerapkan invers transformasi Elzaki sehingga diperoleh solusi model perubahan garis pantai. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, diperoleh bahwa terdapat kesamaan antara pola grafik yang dihasilkan dari solusi model perubahan garis pantai dengan metode transformasi Elzaki dan solusi model perubahan garis pantai dengan metode numerik.Kata Kunci: Perubahan garis pantai, Groin, Analitik, Transformasi Elzaki.The beach is a region that is often used for various human activities, however often these utilization efforts cause beach problems so that the shoreline changes. One way that can be used to determine changes in shoreline is to make a mathematical model. The shoreline change model shaped of partial differential equation can be solved analytically by using the Elzaki transform method. The Elzaki transform method is a form of integral transform obtained from the Fourier integral so that the Elzaki transform and its basic properties are obtained. Shoreline change in this research were affected by groyne. Solution of shoreline change model using Elzaki transform method is carried by applying the Elzaki transform to the shoreline change model to obtain a new shoreline change model, then applying the boundary value, then applying the inverse of Elzaki transform so obtained a solution shoreline change model. Based on the research result, it was found that there was a similiarity between the graphic patterns generated from the solution of shoreline change model using Elzaki transform method and the solution of shoreline change model using numerical method.Keywords: Shoreline change, Groyne, Analitic, Elzaki transform
Many forecasting methods have been used for forecasting rainfall data. Kalman Filter is one of the forecasting methods that could give better forecasts. To our knowledge, the Kalman Filter method has not been used to forecast rainfall data in Makassar, Indonesia. This study aims to provide more precise forecasts for rainfall data in Makassar, Indonesia by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman Filter methods. Rainfall data from January 2010 to December 2020 were used. The best model selection is based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The results showed that the best ARIMA model is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with MAPE is 111.48, while MAPE value by using the Kalman Filter algorithm is 47.00 indicating that Kalman Filter has better prediction than ARIMA model.
Penelitian ini menerapkan metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton untuk menentukan solusi model Verhulst. Bentuk solusi yang diperoleh adalah estimasi hasil panen padi di Kabupaten Gowa dengan menggunakan persamaan berikut . Persamaan model Verhulst terlebih dahulu diselesaikan dengan metode Runge-Kutta orde-4 untuk mendapatkan solusi awal ; ; dan . Selanjutnya nilai awal disubstitusi pada persamaan Adam-Bashforth orde-4 untuk mendapatkan nilai prediksi, kemudian nilai prediksi yang diperoleh diperbaiki menggunakan persamaan korektor Adam Moulton orde-4. Pada iterasi ke-14 yaitu saat menunjukkan tahun diperoleh nilai prediktor dan nilai korektor sehingga estimasi hasil panen padi di Kabupaten Gowa pada tahun 2021 dengan menggunakan metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton saat adalah ton.Kata Kunci: Model Verhulst, Metode Runge-Kutta, Metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton This research applied Adam Bashforth-Moulton Method to determine the solution of Verhust Model. The form of the solution obtained is estimatation of rice harvest in Gowa Regency by using the following equation . Verhulst model equation firstly solved by using 4th order of Runge-Kutta method to get initial solutions of ; ; and . Furthermore, the initial values subtituted on the 4th order of Adam-Bashforth equation to get the prediction value, then the prediction value obtained was corrected using the corrector equation of 4th order of Adam Moulton. On the 14th iteration that is when shows the year of 2021 retrieved the predictor value of and corrector value of so estimation of rice harvets in Gowa Regency in 2021 by using Adam Bashforth-Moulton method when is ton.Keywords: Verhulst Model, Runge-Kutta Method, Adam Bashforth-Moulton
South Sulawesi province ranks sixth-highest in tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. Makassar ranks the highest in South Sulawesi. Spatio-temporal modelling can identify the areas with high risk as well as the temporal relative risk of disease. We analysed the tuberculosis cases data from Makassar City Health Office for 15 districts over seven years from 2012 to 2018. Seven models of Bayesian Spatio-temporal (BST) Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) were applied by using the measures of goodness of fit (GOF) namely, DIC and WAIC. The results showed that BST CAR localised model with G = 3 has the lowest DIC and BST CAR adaptive has the lowest WAIC. Based on the preferred model (Bayesian ST CAR localised with G=3), Panakukang district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2012, 2013, and 2014, while Makassar district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Mamajang had the highest relative risk of TB in 2018.
Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi (TIK) saat ini merupakan salah satu penunjang utama dalam membantu manusia untuk melakukan proses penginputan, pengolahan dan penyimpanan data yang diharapkan mampu untuk mempercepat proses pengelolaan data secara keseluruhan dibanding apabila menggunakan cara manual. Salah satu penerapan TIK dalam kehidupan sehari-hari berkaitan dengan pengolahan data adalah basis data. Basis data merupakan salah satu bagian yang memegang peranan penting dalam TIK karena merupakan panduan atau acuan dalam pengembangan sistem.. Pelaksanaan kegiatan pelatihan basis data meliputi pemberian konsep dasar mengenai basis data dan aplikasi penerapan basis data menggunakan Microsoft Access. Pelaksanaan PKM di pusatkan di SMK Negeri 1 Bantaeng. Peserta kegiatan sangat terbantu dengan adanya kegiatan ini karena peserta mendapatkan tambahan pengetahuan yang berkaitan dengan basis data.
The continuing relevance of thinking logically Keith S Taber Abstract. Every region in Indonesia, in the context of refferal vocational education development has the authority in determining the development policy of refferal vocational education program that suitable with the superior potential of each region. Refferal vocational education program is directed to produce a productive workforce or human resources and able to utilize the region economic potential so that in the long term will increase the independence of the region. Refferal vocational education function is also related to the provision of region economic driving force, where refferal vocational education is expected able to open broader thought for the graduates of refferal vocational education, so the graduates can develop their potential in producing and marketing the goods and services in accordance with the region potential. To achieve this objective, the mapping of the region potential needs to be done as an indicator in developing refferal vocational education where the determination of refferal vocational education skills program development needs to be considered and adjusted to the region potential. It is intended that the existence of refferal vocational education really useful for the region in advancing and developing its potential. The sectoral development approach that has improved the quality standard of Indonesian human resources to a certain extent, in the future needs to be followed by a development approach that takes into account the condition and aspirations of the region, not by a uniform approach. Human development strategies in the future should be able to identify the types of education and training that can place the workforce and educated graduates in job market that constantly demand skill improvement.
Abstrak. Model Space Time Autoregressive (STAR) merupakan data deret waktu yang mempunyai keterkaitan antar lokasi (space time). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendapatkan model STAR yang sesuai dengan data jumlah penderita penyakit DBD di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat serta memperoleh data hasil ramalan untuk beberapa bulan kedepan. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan penderita DBD di lima lokasi yaitu Kota Mamuju, Kabupaten Majene, Kabupaten Polmas, Kabupaten Mamuju Tengah, dan Kabupaten Mamuju Utara pada Januari 2014 sampai Juli 2016. Pendugaan parameter model STAR menggunakan metode kuadrat terkecil (MKT). Model STAR yang sesuai dengan data jumlah penderita penyakit DBD di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat adalah model STAR5(11). Pembobot yang digunakan merupakan bobot lokasi seragam. Pada hasil pengecekan parameter penduga dengan menggunakan bobot lokasi seragam didapatkan tiga model. Hal ini dilihat dari adanya pengaruh yang nyata terhadap lokasi yang berdekatan. Hasil ramalan dengan model STAR5(11) tentang jumlah penderita penyakit DBD di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat untuk dua bulan kedepan yaitu bulan Agustus sampai September 2016.Kata Kunci: Model STAR, ARIMA, Autoregressive, Deret WaktuAbstract. The Space Time Autoregressive (STAR) model is a time series data that has a link between locations (space time). The purpose of this study was to obtain a STAR model that was in accordance with the data on the number of dengue fever patients in West Sulawesi Province and also the forecast data for the next few months. Data in the form of DHF data in five locations, namely Mamuju City, Majene Regency, Polmas District, Central Mamuju Regency, and North Mamuju Regency from January 2014 to July 2016. STAR Estimation parameter model uses vertical squares (MKT) method. The STAR model that matches the data on the number of DHF patients in West Sulawesi Province is the STAR5 model (11). The weighting is a uniform location. In the estimator checking results using uniform location weight of three models. Things that happen between others. Forecast results with the STAR5 (11) model on the number of dengue fever patients in West Sulawesi Province for the next two months, namely August to September 2016, namely 9 people for Mamuju City and 12 people for Polman Regency.Keywords: STAR Model, ARIMA, Autoregressive, Time Series
Penelitian ini membahas mengenai solusi secara numerik dari model SIR pada penyebaran penyakit Hepatitis B dengan Metode Perturbasi Homotopi. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari penelitian Rosdiana (2015) yang berupa model SIR dan jumlah penderita Hepatitis B di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan tahun 2015 dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Pembahasan dimulai dari penentuan solusi umum dengan Metode Perturbasi Homotopi, penentuan parameter, simulasi dan analisis hasil. Setelah dilakukan analisis dari simulasi numerik terlihat bahwa Metode Perturbasi Homotopi dapat digunakan untuk melihat kecenderungan perlakuan penyakit Hepatitis B di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan dan menjadi bahan pertimbangan untuk tindakan pencegahan penyakit Hepatitis B. Dalam penelitian ini diperoleh grafik pergerakan dari model SIR dengan data riil.Kata kunci : Solusi Numerik, Model SIR, Hepatitis B, Metode Perturbasi Homotopi, PemodelanThis research aims to find out the numerical solustion from a SIR model on the spread of Hepatitis B by Homotopy Perturbation Method. This research used a secundary data from Rosdiana’s research (2015) focused on SIR model and number of Hepatitis B in South Sulawesi 2015 from Health Department of South Sulawesi. The discussion started by determining general solution with Homotopy Perturbation Method, parameter decision, simulation and result analyzis. After conducting an analyzis from numeric simulation it shows that the Homotopy Perturbation Method can be used to analyze the preference of Hepatitis B treatment in South Sulawesi also can be a consideration for preventing action of infectious disease of Hepatitis B. This research gets movement grafic and result analyzis from SIR model by riil data.Keywords : Numeric Solution, SIR Model, Hepatitis B, Homotopy Perturbation Method, Modeling
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