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Flooding is a common problem that occurs in some regions of Indonesia, including Makassar city. In the planning of flood control, rainfall variables are very necessary as the frequency, intensity and duration of rainfall. The relationship of these variables can be expressed in a curve Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF). The objectives of this study are to identify the best fitting distribution of rainfall data of Makassar city and also to model the relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration and rainfall frequency that is described through IDF curves. The annual maximum daily rainfall data from Ujung Pandang rainfall station of Makassar is used in this study for the period 1986-2015. Data collection was performed at the Department of Water Resources Management in South Sulawesi province. Five distributions which are considered are Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Pearson type III (P3) distributions. The study result found that the probability distribution of rainfall data in Makassar city has a generalized extreme value distribution. Meantime, based on IDF curves shown that the longer the rainfall duration, the rainfall intensity decreases for various return periods. The results of this study are expected to be valuable information for designers of water management.

This study is aimed at building and analysing a SIRS model and also simulating the model to predict the number of dengue fever cases. Methods applied for this model are building the SIRS model by modifying the SIR model, analysing the SIRS model using the Lyapunov function to prove three theorems (the existence, the free disease, and the endemic status of dengue fever), and simulating the SIRS model using the number of dengue case data in South Sulawesi by Maple. The results obtained are the SIRS model of dengue fever transmission, stability analysis, global stability, and the value of the basic reproduction number R 0 . The simulation done for the dengue fever case in South Sulawesi found the basic reproduction number R 0 = 26.47609 > 1 ; it means that South Sulawesi is in the endemic stage of transmission for dengue fever disease. Simulation of the SIRS model for dengue fever can predict the number of dengue cases in South Sulawesi that could be a recommendation for the government in an effort to prevent the number of dengue fever cases.

Abstrak. Pada penelitian ini, tingkat vaksinasi dan tingkat treatment dibandingkan untuk melihat pengaruhnya pada penyebaran penyakit. Diperoleh tingkat vaksinasi minimum dan tingkat treatment minimum yang dibutuhkan agar penyakit dapat  menghilang dari populasi. Untuk tingkat vaksinasi dan tingkat treatment di atas vaksinasi minimum dan treatment minimum, semakin besar tingkat vaksinasi dan tingkat treatment menyebabkan proporsi jumlah individu Susceptible semakin kecil, artinya penderita penyakit kolera berangsur-angsur semakin berkurang dan penyakit akan menghilang dari populasi dan tidak terjadi endemik.Kata kunci: model SEIRS, kolera, vaksinasi, treatment.Abstract. In this study, the rate of vaccination and treatment than to see the effects on the spread of the disease. In this case, obtained the minimum vaccination and treatment level of the minimum needed for the disease can disappear from the population. For vaccination rates and treatment level above the minimum vaccination and minimum treatment, the greater the rate of vaccination and treatment levels cause the proportion of Susceptible individuals getting smaller, meaning that people with cholera gradually diminishing and the disease will disappear from the population and there is no endemic.Keywords: SEIRS model, cholera, vaccination, treatment

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Penelitian ini menerapkan metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton untuk menentukan solusi model Verhulst. Bentuk solusi yang diperoleh adalah estimasi hasil panen padi di Kabupaten Gowa dengan menggunakan persamaan berikut . Persamaan model Verhulst terlebih dahulu diselesaikan dengan metode Runge-Kutta orde-4 untuk mendapatkan solusi awal ; ; dan . Selanjutnya nilai awal disubstitusi pada persamaan Adam-Bashforth orde-4 untuk mendapatkan nilai prediksi, kemudian nilai prediksi yang diperoleh diperbaiki menggunakan persamaan korektor Adam Moulton orde-4. Pada iterasi ke-14 yaitu saat  menunjukkan tahun  diperoleh nilai prediktor  dan nilai korektor  sehingga estimasi hasil panen padi di Kabupaten Gowa pada tahun 2021 dengan menggunakan metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton saat  adalah  ton.Kata Kunci: Model Verhulst, Metode Runge-Kutta, Metode Adam Bashforth-Moulton This research applied Adam Bashforth-Moulton Method to determine the solution of Verhust Model. The form of the solution obtained is estimatation of rice harvest in Gowa Regency by using the following equation . Verhulst model equation firstly solved by using 4th order of Runge-Kutta method to get initial solutions of ; ; and                                 . Furthermore, the initial values subtituted on the 4th order of Adam-Bashforth equation to get the prediction value, then the prediction value obtained was corrected using the corrector equation of 4th order of Adam Moulton. On the 14th iteration that is when shows the year of 2021 retrieved the predictor value of  and corrector value of  so estimation of rice harvets in Gowa Regency in 2021 by using Adam Bashforth-Moulton method when         is  ton.Keywords: Verhulst Model, Runge-Kutta Method, Adam Bashforth-Moulton

Abstrak. Artikel ini membahas mengenai modifikasi model epidemik SIR pada penyebaran penyakit DBD di Kabupaten Bone dengan penembahan asumsi baru bahwa 20% penderita DBD yang sembuh akan kembali terinfeksi dan 80 % dari individu yang telah sembuh, tidak akan kembali menjadi rentan. Data yang digunakan adalah jumlah penderita DBD di Kabupaten Bone tahun 2016 dari Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Bone. Pembahasan dimulai dari penentuan titik equilibrium, stabilitas, bilangan reproduksi dasar  dan simulasi menggunakan Maple. Dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dua titik equilibrium dengan nilai reproduksi dasar . Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa penyakit DBD di Kabupaten Bone akan terus meningkat dan menjadi endemik.Kata Kunci: Titik Equilibrium, Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, DBD, Modifikasi Model SIR.  Abstract. The research discusses a modification of epidemic model SIR on the spreadof dengue fever disease in Bone District. With some addition of the assumption that 20% of patients who recovered will be re-infected and 80% of individuals who have recovered will not be susceptible. The data used in the number of dengue fever patients in Bone District in 2016 from Bone District Health Office. The discussion starts by the determination of equilibrium points, stability and basic reproduction numbers . In this study, we obtained that two equilibrium points and basic reproduktion value . This indicates that dengue fever disease in Bone District will increase and become endemic.Keywords: Equilibrium Point, Basic Reproduction Number, Dengue Fever, The Modification of SIR Model.