Many forecasting methods have been used for forecasting rainfall data. Kalman Filter is one of the forecasting methods that could give better forecasts. To our knowledge, the Kalman Filter method has not been used to forecast rainfall data in Makassar, Indonesia. This study aims to provide more precise forecasts for rainfall data in Makassar, Indonesia by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman Filter methods. Rainfall data from January 2010 to December 2020 were used. The best model selection is based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The results showed that the best ARIMA model is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with MAPE is 111.48, while MAPE value by using the Kalman Filter algorithm is 47.00 indicating that Kalman Filter has better prediction than ARIMA model.
The transmission of Coronavirus diseases 2019 (Covid-19) grows continuously around the world. Although a number of researches of modelling Covid-19 cases have been conducted, there was limited research implementing the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model. Factors affecting the Covid-19 risk especially population density and distance to the capital city have been studied, but the results are inconsistent and limited research has been done in Indonesia. This study aims to assess the most appropriate Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux models and examine factors that affect the risk of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province. Data on the number of Covid-19 cases (19 March 2020 -31 January 2022), population density, and distance to the capital city were used for every 24 districts. Several criteria were used in choosing the most appropriate model. The results depict that Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux with hyperprior IG (1, 0.01) model with the inclusion of population density were preferred. It is concluded that a factor that significantly affects the number of Covid-19 cases is population density. There was a positive correlation between the population density and Covid-19 risk. Makassar city has the highest relative risk (RR) among other districts while Bone has the lowest RR of Covid-19.
Sulawesi Selatan memiliki banyak rekam jejak beragam dalam tindak pelaku kejahatan, diantaranya pencurian. Faktor penyebab kriminal selayaknya dideteksi dan ditemukan secara ilmiah untuk membantu secara profesional dan akademik semua pihak dalam mengurangi atau menghindari akibatnya ataupun bertambahnya. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk memodelkan kriminalitas (khususnya pencurian) di Sulawesi Selatan berdasarkan faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Model yang digunakan adalah analisis jalur yang mampu menentukan pengaruh langsung maupun tidak langsung. Data diperoleh dari BPS Sulawesi Selatan berupa jumlah penduduk, pendidikan, kemisikinan, pengangguran, kriminal. Dua model ditampilkan untuk memberikan rekomendasi solusi bahwa jumlah penduduk, pendidikan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran berpengaruh pada tingkat kriminalitas. Variabel yang dominan mempengaruhi kriminal secara langsung adalah Jumlah Penduduk sebesar 2,149 dan yang paling kecil pengaruhnya adalah pendidikan sebesar 0,158.
Kata Kunci: Analisis jalur, jumlah penduduk, pengangguran, kriminalitas
The purpose of this study was to determine whether people's interest in saving in Islamic banks, to determine whether promotion affects people's interest in saving in Islamic banks, and to find out whether religiosity affects people's interest in saving at Islamic banks. The data collection method was carried out through a questionnaire distributed to the community of Kp Kalong Sari, Kalong Sawah Village. Samples were taken as many as 50 respondents with a purposive sanpling technique. The data obtained were then processed using SPSS Version 21. The analysis included the reliability test, validity test, classical assumption test through the Ttest, Ftest test, and the coefficient of determinant (R2). The results of the Ttest test showed that promotion partially had a positive and significant effect on the community interest in Kp Kalong Sari, Kalong Sawah Village, amounting to 39.2%. The Ftest test shows that religiosity simultaneously has a significant effect on the interest of the Kalong Sari community in Kalong Sawah Village with an effect of 60.8%.
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