Abstrak. Peramalan penjualan memungkinkan sebuah perusahan memilih kebijakan yang optimal untuk membuat keputusan yang sesuai dan mempertahankan efisiensi dari kegiatan operasional. Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul adalah salah satu usaha yang melakukan penjualan yakni penjualan bakso kemasaan/kiloan. Oleh sebab itu,. Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul sangat memerlukan peramalan penjualan untuk meningkatkan keuntungan dan menghindari terjadinya kelebihan atau kekurangan persedian bakso kemasaan/kiloan. Penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan dengan metode exponential smoothing. Adapun parameter atau a yang digunakan dalam meramalkan penjualan adalah a = 0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8, dan 0.9. Singel exponential smoothing melakukan perbandingan dalam menentukan nilai a, dengan mencari nilai a tersebut secara trial and error sampai menemukan a yang memiliki error minimum dengan pencarian menggunakan metode mean absolute error (MAE) dan metode Mean Squaered error (MSE). Sehingga dipilih a = 0.1 dengan nilai MAE = 6.23 dan nilai MSE = 58.32. berdasarkan hasil ini, dengan menggunakan metode singel exponential smoothing dan a =0.1 diperoleh hasil peramalan penjualan bakso bang ipul pada bulan juni 2018 sebanyak 48 kilogram.Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Metode Exponential Smoothing, Metode Singel Exponential SmoothingAbstract. Sales forecasting enables an optimal policy of the company had to make the appropriate decision and maintain the efficiency of operational activities. Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul is a business that sells packaged meatballs. Therefore, Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul is in need of sales forecasting to increase profit and avoid the occurrence or lack of supply of packaged meatballs. This research was conducted by the method of exponential smoothing forecasting. As for parameter or a used predicting sales is a = 0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8, and 0.9. single exponential smoothing do a comparison in determining the value of a, by searching for the value of such a trial and error to find a that has minimum error with search method using the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE). So that selected a = 0.1 with MAE value = 6.23 and MSE Value = 58.32. Based on these results, using the method of single exponential smoothing and retrieved results forecasting Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul in July 2018 as much as 48 kilograms.Keywords: Forecasting, Method of exponential smoothing, Method of single exponential smoothing.
Abstrak: Opsi adalah suatu kontrak yang memberikan hak (bukan kewajiban) kepada pemegang kontrak (option buyer) untuk membeli atau menjual suatu aset tertentu suatu perusahaan kepada penulis opsi (option writer). Apabila pada saat jatuh tempo (expiration date) pemegang opsi tidak menggunakan haknya, maka hak tersebut akan hilang dengan sendirinya. Dengan demikian opsi yang dimiliki tidak akan mempunyai nilai lagi. Monte Carlo adalah suatu metode yang menghendaki model simulasi yang mengikutsertakan bilangan acak dan sampel yang berbasis pada komputer. Prosedur simulasi melibatkan pembangkit bilangan acak dengan memberikan kepadatan probabilitas dan menggunakan hukum bilangan besar untuk mendapatkan rata-rata dari nilainya sebagai penaksir dari nilai harapan variabel acak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi harga opsi saham pada periode kedepannya dan sebagai bahan pertimbangan bagi pelaku perdagangan saham untuk mengambul keputusan untuk menjual atau membali opsi suatu saham dengan menggunakan software Matlab. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian terapan menggunakan metode Monte Carlo untuk mensimulasikan data saham. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa semakin banyak iterasi yang dilakukan maka nilai prediksi juga semakin baik dan konvergen ke suatu nilai. Nilai prediksi stabil pada iterasi ke-60000 dengan nilai error dari MAPE kurang dari 20% sehingga nilai prediksi dapat dikatakan baik.Kata Kunci: Opsi Asia, Monte Carlo, Black-Scholes, Matlab, MAPE.Abstract: Option is a contract that gives rights (not obligations) to the contract holder (option buyer) to buy or sell a certain asset of a company to the option writer (option writer). Monte Carlo is a method that requires a simulation model that includes random numbers and samples based on computers. The simulation procedure involves generating random numbers by providing a probability density and using the law of large numbers to get the average of its values as an estimator of the expected value of the random variable. This study aims to predict stock option prices in the future and as a material consideration for stock trading players to make a decision to sell or buy options for a stock using Matlab software. The type of research used is applied research using the Monte Carlo method to simulate stock data. The results show that the more iterations are carried out, the predictive value is also getting better and converging to a value. The predictive value is stable at the 60000th iteration with an error value of MAPE of less than 20% so that the predicted value can be said to be good.Keywords: Asia Option, Monte Carlo, Black-Scholes, Matlab, MAPE.
Pendekatan nonparametrik merupakan suatu pendekatan yang digunakan apabila bentuk hubungan antara variabel respon dan variabel prediktornya tidak diketahui atau tidak adanya informasi mengenai bentuk fungsi regresinya. Spline merupakan suatu teknik yang dilakukan untuk mengestimasi parameter dalam regresi nonparametrik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui model hubungan antara berat badan lahir rendah dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi berdasarkan model spline. Faktor-faktor tersebut adalah usia ibu, usia kehamilan, dan jarak kehamilan. Data tersebut diperoleh dari rumah sakit ibu dan anak siti Fatimah Makassar tahun 2017. Dimana untuk mendapatkan model spline terbaik langkah awal yang dilakukan adalah menentukan knot dengan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) yang minimum. Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan, dua variabel dinyatakan berpengaruh terhadap berat badan lahir rendah yaitu usia ibu, dan usia kehamilan. Model regresi nonparametrik dengan pendekatan Spline yang terbentuk memiliki koefisien determinasi sebesar 78,19%, serta nilai GCV dengan tiga titik knot yaitu 0.0117.Kata kunci: Regresi Nonparametrik, Spline, Berat Badan Lahir Rendah, Generalized Cross Validation The non-parametric approach is an approach that is used if the form of the relationship between the response variable and the predictor variable is unknown or the absence of information about the shapes of regression functions. The Spline is a technique performed to estimate the parameters in the nonparametric regression. This study aims to determine the model of the relationship between low birth weight and the factors that affect the based on the spline model. Such factors are maternal age, gestational age, and pregnancy distance. The Data is obtained from the mother and child hospital siti Fatimah Makassar 2017. Where to get a spline model best the initial step is to determine the knots with the value of the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) which is a minimum. Based on the research that has been done, the two variables stated effect against low birth weight, namely age of mother, and gestational age. Nonparametric regression Model with the approach of the Spline that is formed has a coefficient of determination of 78.19 to%, as well as the value of the GCV with a three-point knot that is 0.0117.Keyword : Nonparametric Regression, Spline, Low Birth Weight, Generalized Cross Validation
This paper describes a novel procedure for determining the standard value of acquisition distortion of fingerprint images. Knowledge about the standard value of acquisition distortion of the fingerprint images is very important in determining the method for improving image quality. In this paper, we propose a model to determine the standard value that can be used in classifying the type of distortion of the fingerprint images based on the image quality. The results show that the standard value of acquisition distortion of the fingerprint images based on the image quality have values of the local clarity scores (LCS) follows: dry parameter values are in the range of 0.0127-0.0149, neutral parameter values are less than 0.0127, and oily parameter values are greater than 0.0149. Meanwhile, the global clarity scores (GCS) are as follows: dry parameter values are in the range of 0.0117-0.0120, neutral parameter values are less than 0.0117, and oily parameter values are greater than 0.0120; and ridge-valley thickness ratios (RVTR) are as follows: dry parameter values are less than 7.75E-05, neutral parameter values are 7.75E-05-5.94E-05, and oily parameter values are greater than 5.94E-05.
Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun model penyebaran penyakit tuberkulosis tipe SEIRS (Susceptible- Exposed- Infected- Recovered- Susceptible) dengan menambahkan asumsi bahwa manusia yang pulih dapat rentan kembali terkena tuberkulosis. Model ini dibagi menjadi empat kelas yaitu, rentan, terinfeksi tapi belum aktif, terinfeksi, dan sembuh. Data yang digunakan adalah data jumlah penderita penyakit tuberkulosis dari Dinas Kesehatan Kota Makassar tahun 2017. Model matematika tipe SEIRS digunakan untuk menentukan titik equilibrium. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi model SEIRS diperoleh bilangan reproduksi dasar ( ) sebesar 0,312 berarti bahwa seseorang yang terinfeksi penyakit tuberkulosis tidak menyebabkan orang lain terkena penyakit tuberkulosis di wilayah Kota Makassar.Kata Kunci: Titik Equilibrium, Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, Tuberkulosis, Model SEIRS, Pemodelan.Abstract. This research aims to model of tuberculosis type SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery-Susceptible) by adding assumption that human that has been recovered can be suspected again by Tuberculosis. This model can be divided to four classes, those are suspected, exposed, infected, and recovered. The data that used is data on the number of tuberculosis sufferer from Health Department in Makassar City 2017. Mathematicsl model of SEIRS type is used to determine the equilibrium point. According to the simulation results of SEIRS model, obtained the base reproduction number ( ) is 0.312 means that people who infected by tuberculosis does not causes other people get tuberculosis in Makassat city.Keywords: Equilibrium Point, Basic Reproduction Numbers, Tuberculosis, SEIRS Model, modeling.
Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian terapan yang menggunakan algoritma Recursive Largest First (RLF) pada penjadwalan mata kuliah di salah satu program studi pada salah satu universitas di Makassar. Penjadwalan mata kuliah dilakukan dengan merepresentasikan masalah ke dalam bentuk graf berdasarkan data yang diperoleh dengan menganggap mata kuliah sebagai simpul dan dosen sebagai sisi. Dibentuk matriks ketetanggaan dari graf yang terbentuk, kemudian simpulya diwarnai menggunakan algoritma RLF, sehingga diperoleh jadwal kuliah. Penjadwalan mata kuliah menggunakan pewarnaan simpul graf dengan algoritma RLF digunakan VBA for Microsoft Excel 2016 sebagai alat bantu dalam pewarnaan simpul graf. Diperoleh 102 simpul dengan 25 warna yang menunjukkan bahwa dibutuhkan 25 waktu perkuliahan. Jumlah simpul yang diwarnai dengan warna yang sama 6 simpul artinya dalam setiap slot dibutuhkan maksimal 6 ruangan perkuliahan. Mata kuliah yang terjadwal dijamin bahwa tidak ada jadwal dosen yang bersamaan untuk setiap mata kuliah yang diajarkan.Kata Kunci: Graf, Recursive Largest First, Jadwal Kuliah This research discusses the colorization of graph vertex using algorithm of Recursive Largest First (RLF) in scheduling courses in one of the study programs at one of the universities in Makassar. Representation of problems in scheduling courses was done by making it in the shape of the graph assuming subjects as vertex and the presence of the same lecturers teach different courses as a side. The steps in solving a problem that was mapping the lectures data, representing the lectures data as a graph, forming adjacency matrix, coloring the graph vertex using algorithm of RLF, so that the schedule was retrieved. Scheduling of courses using the colorization of graph vertex with algorithm of RLF as well as the help of VBA for Microsoft Excel 2016 at Faculty of Animal Husbandry obtained 102 vertices with 25 colors indicates that it takes 25 of lecture schedules. The number of vertices that were colored with the same color ≤ 6 vertices meaning in every slot needed 6 lecture rooms in maximum. Scheduled courses are guaranteed that no schedule conflicts for each lecturer of courses taught.Keywords: Graph, Recursive Largest First, Lecture Schedules.
South Sulawesi province ranks sixth-highest in tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. Makassar ranks the highest in South Sulawesi. Spatio-temporal modelling can identify the areas with high risk as well as the temporal relative risk of disease. We analysed the tuberculosis cases data from Makassar City Health Office for 15 districts over seven years from 2012 to 2018. Seven models of Bayesian Spatio-temporal (BST) Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) were applied by using the measures of goodness of fit (GOF) namely, DIC and WAIC. The results showed that BST CAR localised model with G = 3 has the lowest DIC and BST CAR adaptive has the lowest WAIC. Based on the preferred model (Bayesian ST CAR localised with G=3), Panakukang district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2012, 2013, and 2014, while Makassar district had the highest relative risk of TB in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Mamajang had the highest relative risk of TB in 2018.
AbstrakPenelitian ini menjelaskan sebuah prosedur baru untuk menentukan nilai standar distorsi berminyak pada akuisisi citra sidik jari berdasarkan skor kejelasan dan rasio ketebalan ridge-valley. Citra sidik jari dikuantisasi ke dalam blok berukuran 32 x 32 piksel. Setiap blok dihitung orientasi garis yang tegak lurus terhadap arah ridge. Bagian tengah blok sepanjang arah ridge, vektor dua dimensi V 1 dengan ukuran 32 x 13 piksel diekstraksi dan ditransformasi ke vektor vertikal dua dimensi V 2 . Regresi linier diterapkan pada vektor satu dimensi V 3 yang merupakan rata-rata dari V 2 untuk menghasilkan determinant threshold (DT 1 ). Area yang lebih kecil dari DT 1 adalah ridge, sebaliknya adalah valley. Ujicoba kejelasan dilakukan dengan menghitung luasan citra yang tumpang tindih dari distribusi tingkat keabuan ridge dan valley yang telah dipisahkan. Ukuran rasio ketebalan ridge terhadap ketebalan valley dihitung per blok, ketebalan ridge dan ketebalan valley diperoleh dari nilai tingkat keabuan per blok citra dalam arah normal ke arah ridge, nilai ratarata rasio diperoleh dari luas keseluruhan citra. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai standar distorsi berminyak pada akuisisi citra sidik jari dikatakan berminyak apabila citra memiliki nilai skor kejelasan lokal (LCS) antara 0,01446-0,01550, skor kejelasan global (GCS) antara 0,01186-0,01230, dan rasio ketebalan ridge-valley (RVTR) antara 6,98E-05-7,22E-05. AbstractDetermining the Standard Value of the Oily Distortion of Acquisition the Fingerprint Images. This research describes a novel procedure for determining the standard value of the oily distortion of acquisition the fingerprint images based on the score of clarity and ridge-valley thickness ratio. The fingerprint image is quantized into blocks size 32 x 32 pixels. Inside each block, an orientation line, which perpendicular to the ridge direction, is computed. The center of the block along the ridge direction, a two-dimension (2-D) vector V 1 (slanted square) with the pixel size 32 x 13 pixels can be extracted and transformed to a vertical 2-D vector V 2 . Linear regression can be applied to the onedimension (1-D) vector V 3 to find the determinant threshold (DT 1 ). The lower regions than DT 1 are the ridges, otherwise are the valleys. Tests carried out by calculating the clarity of the image from the overlapping area of the gray-level distribution of ridge and valley that has been separated. Thickness ratio size of the ridge to valley, it is computation per block, the thickness of ridge and valley obtained from the gray-level values per block of image in the normal direction toward the ridge, the average values obtained from the overall image. The results shown that the standard value of the oily distortion of acquisition the fingerprint image is said to oily fingerprint when the images have local clarity scores (LCS) is between 0.01446 to 0.01550, global clarity scores (GCS) is between 0.01186 to 0.01230, and ridge-valley thickness ratio (RVTR) is between 6.98E-05 to 7.22E-05.
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