Breeding new crop varieties with resistance to the biotic stresses that undermine crop yields is tantamount to increasing the amount and quality of biological capital in agriculture. However, the success of genes that confer resistance to pests induces a co-evolutionary response that depreciates the biological capital embodied in the crop, as pests evolve the capacity to overcome the crop's new defences. Thus, simply maintaining this biological capital, and the beneficial production and economic outcomes it bestows, requires continual reinvestment in new crop defences. Here we use observed and modelled data on stripe rust occurrence to gauge changes in the geographic spread of the disease over recent decades. We document a significant increase in the spread of stripe rust since 1960, with 88% of the world's wheat production now susceptible to infection. Using a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model we estimate that 5.47 million tonnes of wheat are lost to the pathogen each year, equivalent to a loss of US$979 million per year. Comparing the cost of developing stripe-rust-resistant varieties of wheat with the cost of stripe-rust-induced yield losses, we estimate that a sustained annual research investment of at least US$32 million into stripe rust resistance is economically justified.
The emergence of widely virulent pathotypes (e.g., TTKSK in the Ug99 race group) of the stem rust pathogen (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) in Africa threatens wheat production on a global scale. Although intensive research efforts have been advanced to address this threat in wheat, few studies have been conducted on barley, even though pathotypes such as TTKSK are known to attack the crop. The main objectives of this study were to assess the vulnerability of barley to pathotype TTKSK and identify possible sources of resistance. From seedling evaluations of more than 1,924 diverse cultivated barley accessions to pathotype TTKSK, more than 95% (1,844) were found susceptible. A similar high frequency (910 of 934 = 97.4%) of susceptibility was found for the wild progenitor (Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum) of cultivated barley. Additionally, 55 barley lines with characterized or putative introgressions from various wild Hordeum spp. were also tested against pathotype TTKSK but none was found resistant. In total, more than 96% of the 2,913 Hordeum accessions tested were susceptible as seedlings, indicating the extreme vulnerability of the crop to the African pathotypes of P. graminis f. sp. tritici. In total, 32 (1.7% of accessions evaluated) and 13 (1.4%) cultivated and wild barley accessions, respectively, exhibited consistently highly resistant to moderately resistant reactions across all experiments. Molecular assays were conducted on these resistant accessions to determine whether they carried rpg4/Rpg5, the only gene complex known to be highly effective against pathotype TTKSK in barley. Twelve of the 32 (37.5%) resistant cultivated accessions and 11 of the 13 (84.6%) resistant wild barley accessions tested positive for a functional Rpg5 gene, highlighting the narrow genetic base of resistance in Hordeum spp. Other resistant accessions lacking the rpg4/Rpg5 complex were discovered in the evaluated germplasm and may possess useful resistance genes. Combining rpg4/Rpg5 with resistance genes from these other sources should provide more durable resistance against the array of different virulence types in the Ug99 race group.
This study provides a bio-economic assessment of the global climate suitability and probabilistic crop-loss estimates attributable to wheat leaf rust. We draw on a purpose-built, spatially-explicit, eco-climatic suitability model for wheat leaf rust to estimate that 94.4% of global wheat production is vulnerable to the disease. To reflect the spatio-temporal variation in leaf rust losses, we used a probabilistic approach to estimate a representative rust loss distribution based on long-term, state-level annual U.S. loss estimates. Applying variants of this representative loss distribution to selected wheat production areas in 15 epidemiological zones throughout the world, we project global annual average losses of 8.6 million metric tons of grain for the period 2000-2050 based on a conservative, base-line scenario, and 18.3 million metric tons based on a high-loss scenario; equivalent to economic losses ranging from US$1.5 to US$3.3 billion per year (2016 U.S. prices). Even the more conservative base-line estimate implies that a sustained, worldwide investment of US$50.5 million per year in leaf rust research is economically justified.
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