Breeding new crop varieties with resistance to the biotic stresses that undermine crop yields is tantamount to increasing the amount and quality of biological capital in agriculture. However, the success of genes that confer resistance to pests induces a co-evolutionary response that depreciates the biological capital embodied in the crop, as pests evolve the capacity to overcome the crop's new defences. Thus, simply maintaining this biological capital, and the beneficial production and economic outcomes it bestows, requires continual reinvestment in new crop defences. Here we use observed and modelled data on stripe rust occurrence to gauge changes in the geographic spread of the disease over recent decades. We document a significant increase in the spread of stripe rust since 1960, with 88% of the world's wheat production now susceptible to infection. Using a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model we estimate that 5.47 million tonnes of wheat are lost to the pathogen each year, equivalent to a loss of US$979 million per year. Comparing the cost of developing stripe-rust-resistant varieties of wheat with the cost of stripe-rust-induced yield losses, we estimate that a sustained annual research investment of at least US$32 million into stripe rust resistance is economically justified.

The emergence of widely virulent pathotypes (e.g., TTKSK in the Ug99 race group) of the stem rust pathogen (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) in Africa threatens wheat production on a global scale. Although intensive research efforts have been advanced to address this threat in wheat, few studies have been conducted on barley, even though pathotypes such as TTKSK are known to attack the crop. The main objectives of this study were to assess the vulnerability of barley to pathotype TTKSK and identify possible sources of resistance. From seedling evaluations of more than 1,924 diverse cultivated barley accessions to pathotype TTKSK, more than 95% (1,844) were found susceptible. A similar high frequency (910 of 934 = 97.4%) of susceptibility was found for the wild progenitor (Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum) of cultivated barley. Additionally, 55 barley lines with characterized or putative introgressions from various wild Hordeum spp. were also tested against pathotype TTKSK but none was found resistant. In total, more than 96% of the 2,913 Hordeum accessions tested were susceptible as seedlings, indicating the extreme vulnerability of the crop to the African pathotypes of P. graminis f. sp. tritici. In total, 32 (1.7% of accessions evaluated) and 13 (1.4%) cultivated and wild barley accessions, respectively, exhibited consistently highly resistant to moderately resistant reactions across all experiments. Molecular assays were conducted on these resistant accessions to determine whether they carried rpg4/Rpg5, the only gene complex known to be highly effective against pathotype TTKSK in barley. Twelve of the 32 (37.5%) resistant cultivated accessions and 11 of the 13 (84.6%) resistant wild barley accessions tested positive for a functional Rpg5 gene, highlighting the narrow genetic base of resistance in Hordeum spp. Other resistant accessions lacking the rpg4/Rpg5 complex were discovered in the evaluated germplasm and may possess useful resistance genes. Combining rpg4/Rpg5 with resistance genes from these other sources should provide more durable resistance against the array of different virulence types in the Ug99 race group.

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This study provides a bio-economic assessment of the global climate suitability and probabilistic crop-loss estimates attributable to wheat leaf rust. We draw on a purpose-built, spatially-explicit, eco-climatic suitability model for wheat leaf rust to estimate that 94.4% of global wheat production is vulnerable to the disease. To reflect the spatio-temporal variation in leaf rust losses, we used a probabilistic approach to estimate a representative rust loss distribution based on long-term, state-level annual U.S. loss estimates. Applying variants of this representative loss distribution to selected wheat production areas in 15 epidemiological zones throughout the world, we project global annual average losses of 8.6 million metric tons of grain for the period 2000-2050 based on a conservative, base-line scenario, and 18.3 million metric tons based on a high-loss scenario; equivalent to economic losses ranging from US$1.5 to US$3.3 billion per year (2016 U.S. prices). Even the more conservative base-line estimate implies that a sustained, worldwide investment of US$50.5 million per year in leaf rust research is economically justified.

Sulfur, an essential mineral element for animals, mainly exists in the form of organic sulfur-containing amino acids (SAAs), such as cystine, methionine, and cysteine, within the body. The content, form, and structure of sulfur play an important role in determining the wool fiber quality. In addition, keratin-associated proteins, one of the most crucial wool fiber components, are rich in SAAs. However, sulfur metabolism from the blood to the skin and hair follicles remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed high-sulfur protein gene and sulfur metabolism genes in the cashmere goat and explored the effects of melatonin on their expression. In total, 53 high-sulfur protein genes and 321 sulfur metabolism genes were identified. We found that high-sulfur protein genes were distributed in the 3–4 and 144M regions of chromosome 1 and the 40–41M region of chromosome 19 in goats. Moreover, all year round, allele-specific expression (ASE) is higher in the 40–41M region of chromosome 19 than in the other regions. Total of 47 high-sulfur protein genes showed interaction with transcription factors and cofactors with ASE. These transcription factors and cofactors were inhibited after melatonin implantation. The network analysis revealed that melatonin may activate the sulfur metabolism process via the regulation of the genes related to cell energy metabolism and cell cycle in the skin, which provided sufficient SAAs for wool and cashmere growth. In conclusion, our findings provide a new insight into wool growth regulation by sulfur metabolism genes and high-sulfur protein genes in cashmere goats.

Based on more recent science spending developments in countries such as China, Korea, India and Brazil, there is a growing sense that the world’s scientific deck of cards is in the midst of a major reshuffle. But it is not clear if this reordering is limited to just the top spenders, or, indeed, how these changes have been playing out over the longer term. The new, more comprehensive research and development (R&D) spending estimates presented and discussed here reveal that we are in the midst of a possibly game-changing, albeit partial and perhaps irregular, reshuffle of the global R&D deck. These changes have potentially profound domestic and international economic development implications over the medium to long term. Notably, the fortunes of many of the world’s poorer countries continue to look bleak. Using the evolving structure of past R&D spending to project forward, and absent marked changes in science policies and spending priorities, we foresee a continuing and substantial shift in the geography of R&D towards parts of Asia, along with a continuing large, and in many respects growing, gap between the world’s scientific haves and have-nots.

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We assembled 3,175 geo-tagged occurrences of fall armyworm worldwide and used that data in conjunction with information about the physiological requirements of the pest to spatially assess its global climate suitability. Our analysis indicates that almost the entire African maize crop is grown in areas with climates that support seasonal infestations of the insect, while almost 92% of the maize area supports year-round growth of the pest. In contrast, rich-country maize production largely occurs in temperate areas where only 2.3% of the area may allow the pest to survive year-round, although still subject to worrisome seasonal risks. This means the African maize crop is especially susceptible to damaging infestation from fall armyworm, on par with the risk exposure to this pest faced by maize producers throughout Latin America. We show that the maize grown in Africa is also especially vulnerable to infestations from a host of other crop pests. Our multi-peril pest risk study reveals that over 95% of the African maize area deemed climate suitable for fall armyworm, can also support year-round survival of at least three or more pests. The spatial concurrence of climatically suitable locations for these pests raises the production risk for farmers well above the risks posed from fall armyworm alone. Starkly, over half (52.5%) of the African maize area deemed suitable for fall armyworm is also at risk from a further nine pests, while over a third (38.1%) of the area is susceptible to an additional 10 pests. This constitutes an exceptionally risky production environment for African maize producers, with substantive and complex implications for developing and implementing crop breeding, biological, chemical and other crop management strategies to help mitigate these multi-peril risks.