Current development trends of the global and national economies require a search for effective approaches to expand participation of small agribusiness entities in providing population with domestic livestock products. The article focuses on state support programs for family livestock farms and novice farmers in the framework of the national project “Creating a system of support for farmers and the development of rural cooperation.” Development trends of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry in the Rostov region—a large agricultural region of Russia - have been noted. A deep comprehensive economic analysis of the composition and structure of financing state programs to support small regional agribusiness entities in the livestock industry was conducted, and the ways for its further development have been determined. Regional authorities have been established to be able to identify and significantly expand priority areas for the development of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry, while consolidating state support measures regarding the distribution of grants to family farms and novice farmers. The need to develop industrial and economic relations of small business in the livestock sector of the region due to the system of consumer cooperation has been justified. A considerable potential for cooperation in the dairy industry has been noted. The methodology of the research on the problem was based on a system of general scientific and local methods and techniques. The information-analytical basis of the study was the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov Region and data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.
The purpose of the research is to substantiate the directions for improving program and target planning in the implementation of state programs based on the principles of project management. The article considers methodological aspects of development and implementation of program planning based on the principles of project management in agriculture in Russia. The article describes the domestic practice of program and target planning in the market conditions of management. The main drawbacks of the software planning tools used in the system of state regulation of agricultural production and development of rural territories are investigated. Special attention is paid to the target orientation of budget allocation. A model of program-target planning based on the principles of project management in agriculture has been developed, which includes a system of elements of strategic state planning. It is proved that the new management tools of state regulation of the agricultural sector, based on the project approach, will allow not only to focus the efforts of authorities at all levels on achieving specific results in the implementation of state programs, but also to transfer agricultural producers of various forms of management to the same level of development.
The research concept consists in the development of theoretical and empirical approaches for analysis and assessment of Russian agricultural production development trends in the context of exportoriented strategy implementation in the agro-industrial complex. The research is conducted using complex of methods of mathematical modeling in economics, including extrapolation methods (linear and non-linear trend models for analyzing the time dynamics of production and economic variables), scenario forecasting, Delphi approach. The projected parameters of the export potential of Russian agricultural production are developed and represented in the paper. Based on the data of 2009-2018, the development state is analyzed and trends become visible of the farm stock structure by farming categories in the Russian Federation and staple food production, including meat, milk, vegetables, potatoes, grain and sunflower. Three forecasting scenarios of staple food production per capita in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 are developed and proved (base case, best-case and worst-casescenarios).
The development of the agricultural sector and the entire national economy of Russia at the present stage is determined by the key realities of globalization trends and the mechanism of adaptation to them. The current confrontation of the interests of world powers under the influence of sanctions against Russia, which is a new form of global political and economic transformation, requires increased use of tools and mechanisms for state regulation of socio-economic processes, the main of which is strategic planning. The system of state planning has always been and remains the most important tool for justifying agricultural policy, both at the Federal and regional levels, which determines the search for the main trajectory of economic development of agricultural production sectors. The article deals with the deep causes of the protracted systemic crisis in the agricultural sector of the country’s economy. It is revealed that the lack of effective science-based tools of the state management system is becoming the main factor hindering the development of the country’s agricultural production sector. It is established that in the new Russian reality, state management of the agricultural sector of the economy should be based on its key function – strategic planning. The necessity of implementing a systematic campaign in planning is justified. Methodological aspects of the development and implementation of program-target planning in agriculture in Russia allowed us to identify the main shortcomings of the modern practice of planning and forecasting. The necessity of developing a strategy for the development of agriculture in the new macroeconomic conditions is justified. The developed model of a modern strategic planning system based on an integrated approach, including concepts, forecasts, economic orientation, plans, programs, excludes the possibility of fragmented planning and forecast management of the agricultural sector of the economy.
Purpose. The study consists in the development and substantiation of forecast scenarios for ensuring the food security of the region in the context of food affordability. Materials and methods. The research technique is based on the development of predictive econometric models of the food affordability, including trend, simulation modeling and paired non-linear correlation-regression models, which not only makes it possible to identify the impact on the consumption level of two multidirectional factors at the same time (price changes and income), but also reflects the real purchasing power of the monetary income of the population. The empirical basis for forecast calculations was an assessment of trends in ensuring food security in the region for the period 2007–2019. Results. The results of the study indicate that during the period of fundamental changes in the modern agro-food policy of Russia, including the adoption of the Food Security Doctrine, the implementation of accelerated import substitution measures, it was not possible to significantly improve the quality and living standard of the population. It is substantiated that the degree of differentiation of population of Rostov region in terms of income, together with the Engel coefficient, approaches a critical level and does not allow ensuring the food affordability at the proper level. Predictive scenarios of food affordability have been developed: basic (inertial) and pessimistic. It is argued that the existing mechanism for ensuring food security in the long term is insufficient to improve the quality of life of population. Conclusions. Difficult macroeconomic conditions in the country against the backdrop of sanctions confrontations and a pandemic can significantly aggravate food affordability. In particular, meat consumption by 2030 may reach 82.2 % of the rational consumption rate, milk and fruits 76.7 and 65.2 %, respectively. A methodology for predicting the economic food affordability within the framework of ensuring food security is proposed, which can be used by public authorities at all levels to adjust key areas of agrarian socio-economic policy.
The article considers transformation trends of conceptual approaches to planning and forecasting agricultural production in the context of the digitalization of the economy. The features of modern information and communication technologies applied in the farm production management have been studied. The implementation of “smart” technologies in Russian agriculture has been revealed to be not large-scale. It has been substantiated that digital technologies based on artificial intelligence, analysis of large data arrays, and a fundamentally new interaction interface—virtual and augmented reality—transform current methodological approaches to economic planning. Particular attention was paid to transformed conceptual approaches in the methodology of economic planning of domestic agricultural production. The Internet of Things and measuring elements equipped with microprocessors and sensors, as well as special platforms and applications for monitoring have been proved to change the prevailing concept of the organization of planning and forecasting activities in agriculture. Special attention was paid to the implementation of the departmental project “Digital Agriculture” that is creating a model for the transition of the strategic planning system to a digital format. The model reflects the integration trends of modern information and communication technologies with agribusiness and authorities.
The article presents scientific foundations for scheduling and forecasting methodology applicable to the agrarian sector of the economy. The purpose of the study was to summarize the experience of using the calculation and analytical tools for planning and forecasting in the development of main directions of the state agrarian policy in the context of a new economic reality and implementation of state programs. The practical relevance of the research lies in modern methodological approaches to the development and implementation of state programs for the development of agriculture, which were summarized in the article. Particular attention was paid to the design methods of program-target scheduling in the context of the Russian economic reality that open up new opportunities for certain priority areas of agricultural production.
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