Current development trends of the global and national economies require a search for effective approaches to expand participation of small agribusiness entities in providing population with domestic livestock products. The article focuses on state support programs for family livestock farms and novice farmers in the framework of the national project “Creating a system of support for farmers and the development of rural cooperation.” Development trends of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry in the Rostov region—a large agricultural region of Russia - have been noted. A deep comprehensive economic analysis of the composition and structure of financing state programs to support small regional agribusiness entities in the livestock industry was conducted, and the ways for its further development have been determined. Regional authorities have been established to be able to identify and significantly expand priority areas for the development of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry, while consolidating state support measures regarding the distribution of grants to family farms and novice farmers. The need to develop industrial and economic relations of small business in the livestock sector of the region due to the system of consumer cooperation has been justified. A considerable potential for cooperation in the dairy industry has been noted. The methodology of the research on the problem was based on a system of general scientific and local methods and techniques. The information-analytical basis of the study was the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov Region and data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.
The purpose of the research is to substantiate the directions for improving program and target planning in the implementation of state programs based on the principles of project management. The article considers methodological aspects of development and implementation of program planning based on the principles of project management in agriculture in Russia. The article describes the domestic practice of program and target planning in the market conditions of management. The main drawbacks of the software planning tools used in the system of state regulation of agricultural production and development of rural territories are investigated. Special attention is paid to the target orientation of budget allocation. A model of program-target planning based on the principles of project management in agriculture has been developed, which includes a system of elements of strategic state planning. It is proved that the new management tools of state regulation of the agricultural sector, based on the project approach, will allow not only to focus the efforts of authorities at all levels on achieving specific results in the implementation of state programs, but also to transfer agricultural producers of various forms of management to the same level of development.
The research concept consists in the development of theoretical and empirical approaches for analysis and assessment of Russian agricultural production development trends in the context of exportoriented strategy implementation in the agro-industrial complex. The research is conducted using complex of methods of mathematical modeling in economics, including extrapolation methods (linear and non-linear trend models for analyzing the time dynamics of production and economic variables), scenario forecasting, Delphi approach. The projected parameters of the export potential of Russian agricultural production are developed and represented in the paper. Based on the data of 2009-2018, the development state is analyzed and trends become visible of the farm stock structure by farming categories in the Russian Federation and staple food production, including meat, milk, vegetables, potatoes, grain and sunflower. Three forecasting scenarios of staple food production per capita in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 are developed and proved (base case, best-case and worst-casescenarios).
The development of the agricultural sector and the entire national economy of Russia at the present stage is determined by the key realities of globalization trends and the mechanism of adaptation to them. The current confrontation of the interests of world powers under the influence of sanctions against Russia, which is a new form of global political and economic transformation, requires increased use of tools and mechanisms for state regulation of socio-economic processes, the main of which is strategic planning. The system of state planning has always been and remains the most important tool for justifying agricultural policy, both at the Federal and regional levels, which determines the search for the main trajectory of economic development of agricultural production sectors. The article deals with the deep causes of the protracted systemic crisis in the agricultural sector of the country’s economy. It is revealed that the lack of effective science-based tools of the state management system is becoming the main factor hindering the development of the country’s agricultural production sector. It is established that in the new Russian reality, state management of the agricultural sector of the economy should be based on its key function – strategic planning. The necessity of implementing a systematic campaign in planning is justified. Methodological aspects of the development and implementation of program-target planning in agriculture in Russia allowed us to identify the main shortcomings of the modern practice of planning and forecasting. The necessity of developing a strategy for the development of agriculture in the new macroeconomic conditions is justified. The developed model of a modern strategic planning system based on an integrated approach, including concepts, forecasts, economic orientation, plans, programs, excludes the possibility of fragmented planning and forecast management of the agricultural sector of the economy.
Purpose. The study consists in the development and substantiation of forecast scenarios for ensuring the food security of the region in the context of food affordability. Materials and methods. The research technique is based on the development of predictive econometric models of the food affordability, including trend, simulation modeling and paired non-linear correlation-regression models, which not only makes it possible to identify the impact on the consumption level of two multidirectional factors at the same time (price changes and income), but also reflects the real purchasing power of the monetary income of the population. The empirical basis for forecast calculations was an assessment of trends in ensuring food security in the region for the period 2007–2019. Results. The results of the study indicate that during the period of fundamental changes in the modern agro-food policy of Russia, including the adoption of the Food Security Doctrine, the implementation of accelerated import substitution measures, it was not possible to significantly improve the quality and living standard of the population. It is substantiated that the degree of differentiation of population of Rostov region in terms of income, together with the Engel coefficient, approaches a critical level and does not allow ensuring the food affordability at the proper level. Predictive scenarios of food affordability have been developed: basic (inertial) and pessimistic. It is argued that the existing mechanism for ensuring food security in the long term is insufficient to improve the quality of life of population. Conclusions. Difficult macroeconomic conditions in the country against the backdrop of sanctions confrontations and a pandemic can significantly aggravate food affordability. In particular, meat consumption by 2030 may reach 82.2 % of the rational consumption rate, milk and fruits 76.7 and 65.2 %, respectively. A methodology for predicting the economic food affordability within the framework of ensuring food security is proposed, which can be used by public authorities at all levels to adjust key areas of agrarian socio-economic policy.
Современная трансформация сельскохозяйственного производства, обусловленная переходом к цифровым технологиям и масштабным обновлением материальнотехнической базы, влечет за собой необходимость разработки научно обоснованной методики планирования потребности аграрного производства в рабочей силе и ее адаптации к новым вызовам. Статья посвящена разработке методики планирования кадрового потенциала аграрного сектора экономики в условиях цифровых технологий. Разработан алгоритм планирования кадровой потребности отрасли на среднесрочную перспективу. Ключевыми показателями плановой работы по определению потребности в кадровом обеспечении согласно методике должны выступить контрольные цифры приема в образовательные учреждения и создание условий по обеспечению трудоустройства выпускников. С целью обоснования прогноза ежегодной дополнительной потребности аграрного сектора экономики в кадрах предложен расчетно-аналитический инструментарий с применением технологий стратегического форсайтинга, который позволяет в условиях формирования аграрной экономики инновационного типа сформировать новую парадигму прогнозирования кадровой потребности для сельскохозяйственного производства, демонстрирующую переход от сценарного (вариативного) подхода к подходу «тройная спираль». Подход «тройная спираль» не только позволит прогнозировать качественную динамику кадрового потенциала сельского хозяйства, учитывающую изменение условий труда, тенденции масштабной модернизации производственных фондов, применение современных технологий, достигнув максимального соответствия между ресурсным потенциалом отрасли и ее ежегодными кадровыми потребностями, но и будет способствовать созданию системы объективного государственного регулирования общего профессионального и дополнительного аграрного образования на региональном уровне. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в разработке организационно-экономического механизма государственного регулирования вопроса кадрового обеспечения на основе проектных методов управления в сельском хозяйстве, позволяющего сбалансировать ситуацию на аграрном рынке труда. The modern transformation of agricultural production, due to the transition to digital technologies and large-scale modernization of the material and technical base, entails the need to develop a scientifically based methodology for planning the needs of agricultural production in the labor force and its adaptation to new challenges. The article is devoted to the development of a methodology for planning the personnel potential of the agricultural sector of the economy in the context of digital technologies. An algorithm for planning the personnel needs of the industry for the medium-term perspective has been developed. The key indicators of the planned work to determine the need for personnel support according to the methodology should be the control figures for admission to educational institutions and the creation of conditions for ensuring the employment of graduates. In order to justify the forecast of the annual additional demand for personnel in the agricultural sector of the economy, a calculation and analytical tool is proposed with the use of strategic foresight technologies, which allows, in the conditions of the formation of an innovative agricultural economy, to form a new paradigm for predicting the personnel need for agricultural production, demonstrating the transition from a scenario (variable) approach to the «triple helix» approach. The «Triple Helix» approach will not only predict the qualitative dynamics of the human resource potential of agriculture, taking into account changes in working conditions, trends in large-scale modernization of production assets, the use of modern technologies, achieving maximum compliance between the resource potential of the industry and its annual human resource needs, but will also contribute to the creation of a system of objective state regulation of general professional and additional agricultural education at the regional level. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of an organizational and economic mechanism for state regulation of the issue of labor security on the basis of project management methods in agriculture, which allows to balance the situation in the agricultural labor market.
The article considers transformation trends of conceptual approaches to planning and forecasting agricultural production in the context of the digitalization of the economy. The features of modern information and communication technologies applied in the farm production management have been studied. The implementation of “smart” technologies in Russian agriculture has been revealed to be not large-scale. It has been substantiated that digital technologies based on artificial intelligence, analysis of large data arrays, and a fundamentally new interaction interface—virtual and augmented reality—transform current methodological approaches to economic planning. Particular attention was paid to transformed conceptual approaches in the methodology of economic planning of domestic agricultural production. The Internet of Things and measuring elements equipped with microprocessors and sensors, as well as special platforms and applications for monitoring have been proved to change the prevailing concept of the organization of planning and forecasting activities in agriculture. Special attention was paid to the implementation of the departmental project “Digital Agriculture” that is creating a model for the transition of the strategic planning system to a digital format. The model reflects the integration trends of modern information and communication technologies with agribusiness and authorities.
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