A peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach is used to study trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) at a daily scale. Records from 52 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia with no missing data were available for the common period from 1958 to 2004. The POT approach was used because it is particularly effective at extracting information concerning true extreme events. A generalized Pareto distribution fit was made to the data involving time-dependent parameters to account for possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. These parameters were analyzed for trends in the return-level period, of importance for engineering purposes. A time-varying threshold was defined and an automatic declustering scheme was used to select independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. The results indicate a high variability of extreme events over the coastline of the IP, greater over the Mediterranean coast than over the Atlantic coast. The calculation of the trends for the 2-yr return level yielded a large proportion of negative trends for all three seasons considered: 58% for winter, 63% for spring, and 69% for autumn. The parametric approach also revealed an increase in the area with a positive trend of the 20-yr return level relative to the 2-yr return period, especially in autumn in the east of the IP.

The order Diatrypales (Ascomycota) contains one single family, the Diatrypaceae. To obtain insight in the phylogenetic relationships within this family, the complete sequences of the ITS region (ITS1, 5.8S rRNA gene and ITS2) of 53 isolates from the five main genera in the family (Diatrype, Diatrypella, Cryptosphaeria, Eutypa and Eutypella) were determined and aligned for phylogenetic reconstruction. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of tandem repeated motifs 11 nucleotides-long, placed in homologous positions along the ITS1 region. Parsimony analysis established the existence of nine monophyletic groups and one branch with a single isolate of Eutypella quaternata. The phylogenetic relationships established by parsimony analysis did not correlate well with classical taxonomic schemes. None of the five genera included in this study was found to be monophyletic. The genera Diatrype, Eutypa and Cryptosphaeria each were divided into two groups. Isolates of Diatrype flavovirens appeared in a clade separated from the one that grouped Diatrype disciformis and the rest of Diatrype species. The Eutypa strains appeared distributed into two clades, one grouping Eutypa lata and related species (Eutypa armeniacae, Eutypa laevata, Eutypa petrakii), and anoth

Abstract:The order Diatrypales (Ascomycota) contains one single family, the Diatrypaceae. To obtain insight in the phylogenetic relationships within this family, the complete sequences of the ITS region (ITS1, 5.8S rRNA gene and ITS2) of 53 isolates from the five main genera in the family (Diatrype, Diatrypella, Cryptosphaeria, Eutypa and Eutypella) were determined and aligned for phylogenetic reconstruction. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of tandem repeated motifs 11 nucleotides-long, placed in homologous positions along the ITS1 region. Parsimony analysis established the existence of nine monophyletic groups and one branch with a single isolate of Eutypella quaternata. The phylogenetic relationships established by parsimony analysis did not correlate well with classical taxonomic schemes. None of the five genera included in this study was found to be monophyletic. The genera Diatrype, Eutypa and Cryptosphaeria each were divided into two groups. Isolates of Diatrype flavovirens appeared in a clade separated from the one that grouped Diatrype disciformis and the rest of Diatrype species. The Eutypa strains appeared distributed into two clades, one grouping Eutypa lata and related species (Eutypa armeniacae, Eutypa laevata, Eutypa petrakii), and anothAccepted for publication September 22, 2003. 1 Corresponding author. E-mail: fernandopelaez@merck.com er with the remaining species of the genus. Eutypella (excluding Eutypella quaternaria) appeared as an unstable monophyletic group, which was lost when the sequence alignment was subjected to neighbor-joining analysis. The genus Diatrypella was not associated with any monophyletic group, suggesting that the multisporate asci character has appeared several times during the evolution of the group. Overall, our study suggests the need to revise many of the concepts usually applied to the classification of members of the family.

[1] Heat wave event trends over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are studied using extreme value theory, specifically the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. Summer (June-August) daily temperature records from 20 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia in places far from urban effects were available for the common period 1961-2010. Heat waves are defined as days occurring above the 95th percentile of the temperature distribution, considering both maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures. These events were identified using a "run declustering" scheme to select independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. Also, the dates of occurrence of the independent events were fitted to a Poisson process. Trends in the following parameters were studied: the scale parameter of the POT approach, the Poisson intensity, mean, return level period, and low (25th percentile) and high (75th percentile) values. The optimal trends in the Poisson intensity considering both T max and T min show a major increase in the occurrence of heat waves. Also, the rise in the return level trend was less than that in the mean of T min and T max , and the analysis of the values of T min and T max showed a greater increasing trend in the low values (25th percentile) than in the high values (75th percentile), especially for T max , leading to a decrease in the variance. Over the IP, temperature extremes are increasing but not as much as the mean because the variance is tending to decrease. This highlights the important role of variance in the evolution of extremes.

The study of the extreme weather space events is important for a technological-dependent society. Extreme value theory could be decisive to characterize those extreme events in order to have the knowledge to make decisions in technological, economic, and social matters, in all fields with possible impacts. In this work, the hourly values of the Dst geomagnetic index have been studied for the period 1957-2014 using the peaks-over-threshold technique. The shape parameter obtained from the fit of the generalized Pareto distribution to the extreme values of the |Dst| index leads to a negative value implying an upper bound for this time series. This result is relevant because the estimation of this limit for the extreme values leads to 850 nT as the highest expected value for this geomagnetic index. Thus, from the previous characterization of the Carrington geomagnetic storm and our results, it could be considered the worst-case scenario.

No abstract

No abstract

Extreme value theory was employed to study solar activity using the new sunspot number index. The block maxima approach was used at yearly (1700–2015), monthly (1749–2016), and daily (1818–2016) scales, selecting the maximum sunspot number value for each solar cycle, and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique was used after a declustering process only for the daily data. Both techniques led to negative values for the shape parameters. This implies that the extreme sunspot number value distribution has an upper bound. The return level (RL) values obtained from the POT approach were greater than when using the block maxima technique. Regarding the POT approach, the 110 year (550 and 1100 year) RLs were lower (higher) than the daily maximum observed sunspot number value of 528. Furthermore, according to the block maxima approach, the 10-cycle RL lay within the block maxima daily sunspot number range, as expected, but it was striking that the 50- and 100-cycle RLs were also within that range. Thus, it would seem that the RL is reaching a plateau, and, although one must be cautious, it would be difficult to attain sunspot number values greater than 550. The extreme value trends from the four series (yearly, monthly, and daily maxima per solar cycle, and POT after declustering the daily data) were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method. Only the negative trend of the daily data with the POT technique was statistically significant.