Introduction. There is actual development of scientific and methodological support for the formation of the evidence base of the negative impact of environmental factors on public health. Material and methods. The hygienic assessment of the air quality of the territory with the placement of aluminum production and the territory without similar sources of emissions was carried out, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk was estimated, chemical-analytical and clinical-laboratory examination of 235 children was carried out to study the negative effects of the influence of the studied risk factors on critical organs and systems. Results. In the conditions of the existing quality of the atmospheric air, conditioned by the economic activity of the enterprise producing aluminum, an unacceptable risk of developing non-carcinogenic effects for the central nervous system, bone system, respiratory system, blood system, liver, kidneys (HI to 33.4) is formed. Children in the zone of exposure to risk factors have an increased (up to 4.0 times) content both of manganese, nickel, chromium in blood, and as the aluminum as fluoride ion in urine (up to 5.5 times) relative to the indices in the comparison group. Children with an elevated content of these compounds in bio medias revealed reliable deviations of laboratory parameters relative to similar parameters in children in the comparison group: a 1.2-fold increase in serum glutamic acid, a 2.2-fold increase in eosinophilia in the nasal secretion, C-terminal telopeptides, total and direct bilirubin, ACAT in blood serum by 1.2 times, β2-microglobulin in blood serum - by 1.8 times. The established negative effects in children, proven to be associated with an increased content of toxic substances in the bio medias, are confirmed by the increased detectability of functional disorders of the autonomic and central nervous system (5.5 times more often), respiratory diseases (2.9 times), musculoskeletal diseases system (in 1.3-1.5 times). Substantiated indices of negative effects must be taken into account when conducting sanitary and epidemiological examinations and developing measures for the prevention of functional diseases of the central nervous system, bone system, respiratory system, liver, kidneys in children permanently residing in a residential building in the zone of emission sources of aluminum plants.
The article presents the result produced by predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth (LEB) of the RF Population. The predictions are based on scenario changes in social and hygienic determinants (SHD) identified by using an artificial neural network (ANN). This research is vital given the existing social strategies aimed at improving the medical and demographic situation in the Russian Federation. These strategies stipulate achieving targets set within the major national and federal projects. We identified an optimal ANN structure based on a four-layer perceptron with two inner layers containing eight and three neurons accordingly. This structure is able to produce results at the highest determination coefficient (R2= 0.78). Differences between actual LEB levels and predicted ones obtained by using the suggested model did not exceed 1.1 % (or 0.8 years). We established that average LEB in the RF would reach 75.06 years (by 2024) provided that the demographic situation in the country recovers in the nearest future, LEB level reaches its values detected in 2018–2019, and SHD values grow to their preset levels according to the target scenario. Therefore, the detected growth potential amounts to 3.0 years (1095 days) against 2018. “Lifestyle-related determinants” produce the greatest effects on the growth potential in LEB by 2024 (461 days). We also identified effects produced by such SHD groups as “Sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory” (212 days), “Social and demographic indicators” (196 days), “Economic indicators” (131 days), “Indicators related to public healthcare” (70 days). An indicator that shows “A share of population doing physical exercises or sports” is the most significant determinant producing the greatest effects on potential changes in LEB. If it grows up to 55.0 %, a potential growth in LEB amounts to 243.5 days. If we do not consider COVID-related processes and rely only on the trends that are being observed now when predicting changes in the demographic situation by 2030, we can expect a possible additional growth in LEB that equals 286 days. The developed algorithm for determining growth potential in population LEB can be used as an instrument for determining and ranking priority health risk factors.
Introduction. The city of Norilsk is included in the list of cities participating in the federal project “Clean Air.” The comprehensive action plan for protecting atmospheric air of substances provides a 75% reduction in emissions and a decrease in the level of pollution from “very high” to “high.” The aim of the study was to assess human health risk from chemicals that pollute the atmospheric air of the city of Norilsk before the implementation of a complex of air protection measures. Also, we planned to identify priority factors and sources of risk. Material and methods. The assessment of carcinogenic, acute, and chronic non-carcinogenic health risks was carried out at 1105 points of location of residential buildings in the city based on summary calculations of dispersion. The database of parameters of 2145 sources of pollutant emissions into the atmospheric air of the city was used. Results. Unacceptable, including high levels of risk to the health of citizens, have been established to be registered throughout the city. More than 181.8 thousand people live in high-risk zones. Risks occur both during short-term and long-term exposure to atmospheric pollution. The risk indicators for respiratory disorders diseases of the immune system and the blood system are ten or more times higher than the acceptable levels. There have been eleven priority pollutants contributing up to 90% to unacceptable risks (nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, copper, nickel, lead oxides, the sum of various types of industrial dust, etc.). Conclusion. In general, aerogenic health risks require urgent measures to reduce them. The planned measures to suppress sulfur dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxides, and dust in Norilsk are generally large-scale and adequate to the priority risk factors. At the same time, it is necessary to develop and implement measures to reduce emissions of heavy metal compounds. Until the levels of acceptable health risk are reached, measures of a medical and prophylactic nature are relevant as compensation measures provided for by current legislation.
Sanitary and hygienic analysis of drinking water quality was carried out and health risk assessment of the population living in the industrial areas of the Perm region and consuming drinking water with high content of organochlorine compounds (Tetrachloromethane to 3.7 MPC, chloroform to 2.8 MPC). In the conditions of oral exposure to COC in the population formed unacceptable non-carcinogenic risk of endocrine system pathology (HI = 1.72, due to the influence of chloroform (85.7 %). In exposed children with high concentrations of chloroform and Tetrachloromethane in the blood, endocrine system pathology was diagnosed 2,0–2,4 times more often, the relative risk of obesity (E66.0) and redundant power supply (E67.8) 2.4 times higher than the indicators of the comparison group. A reliable causeand– effect relationship between the development of metabolic disorders (obesity and overweight) and the consumption of drinking water with high content of chos (OR = 2,4; DI = 1,05–6,8) was established; the proportion of the explained variance was R2 = 0,3–0,34; 85,4 ≤ F ≥ 112,8; p < 0,001. As features of the development of metabolic disorders in the population for a long time consuming drinking water with high content of chos (Tetrachloromethane, chloroform) revealed a sharp disharmony of physical development, early formation of excess body weight and obesity, an increase of 1,4–1,6 times the level Of C-peptide and leptin in the blood, insulin resistance index HOMA-IR, (p < 0,05).
The current work supplements the results obtained in previous research on a relation between leading parameters of living conditions and life expectancy of the RF population; it dwells on the results obtained via analyzing a role played by sanitary and epidemiologic determinants. A sanitary-epidemiologic situation in certain RF regions is unfavorable and it makes our research truly vital; it is also necessary to work out and implement activities aimed at eliminating or minimizing adverse environmental factors that can produce negative effects on demographic situation in the country. Our primary goal was to study impacts exerted by sanitary-epidemiologic parameters on life expectancy in the RF and to obtain predicted values for its growth taking into account regional and sex differentiation. We examined domestic and foreign experience in researching relations between sanitary-epidemiologic welfare and life expectancy. All the RF regions were distributed into three clusters as per their sanitary-epidemiologic welfare. The third cluster that includes 11 regions is in much greater need for implementing activities aimed at reducing environmental contamination. Results obtained via regression and factor analysis revealed that should there be a scenario with an improvement in sanitary-epidemiologic parameters (by 10.0 %), the overall life expectancy for the RF population would increase by 140.39 days. An improvement in sanitary-epidemiologic situation taken as per sex differentiation indicated that a greater impact was expected on life expectancy growth among male population, as it would increase by 146.9 days (by 117.6 days for female population). We established that several parameters made the greatest contribution into life expectancy growth; they were "A share of population provided with high quality drinking water" (61.65 days); "Physical factors existing at workplaces" (35.83 days), "Sanitary-hygienic characteristics of objects under surveillance" (15.16 days), and "Sanitary-epidemiologic parameters of ambient air" (14.26 days). The current work does not cover extreme sanitary-epidemiologic situations related to pandemic spread of new infectious agents causing highly contagious diseases (Coronavirus infection).
On the basis of the system review, the relevance of the problem of the chloroform content in the drinking water of centralized drinking-water supply systems in the Perm Territory is confirmed. The comparative characteristic with the average Russian indices is presented. Insufficient volume of information containing data on the impact of the oral intake of chloroform on the blood system was established. There are presented results of the research content of chloroform in water samples from centralized drinking water supply in the cities of Perm region, as well as in the blood of the child population aged from 3 to 13 years living in these areas and consuming water under investigation in the period from 2011 to 2015. A long-term dynamics of the content of chloroform, contained in samples of drinking water and in bio-environments is described. A mathematical simulation of the dependence of the chloroform content in the blood as an exposure marker on the concentration of chloroform in water was carried out. As a result of the analysis of the prevalence rate of diseases of the blood system, hematopoietic organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism in the child population, there was established the relevance of differences between the territories of Permsky Krai with surface and underground water supply. The dynamics of the chloroform content in water and morbidity according to the class of blood diseases, hematopoietic organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism is presented and described. The association between the exposure to the oral intake of chloroform with drinking water with a morbidity on the class of diseases of the blood system was established on the basis of constructing a mathematical model. The conclusion about the legitimacy of information on the effect of the oral intake of chloroform on the blood system, hematopoietic organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism is presented.
The article presents the result produced by predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth (LEB) of the RF Population. The predictions are based on scenario changes in social and hygienic determinants (SHD) identified by using an artificial neural network (ANN). This research is vital given the existing social strategies aimed at improving the medical and demographic situation in the Russian Federation. These strategies stipulate achieving targets set within the major national and federal projects. We identified an optimal ANN structure based on a four-layer perceptron with two inner layers containing eight and three neurons accordingly. This structure is able to produce results at the highest determination coefficient (R2= 0.78). Differences between actual LEB levels and predicted ones obtained by using the suggested model did not exceed 1.1 % (or 0.8 years). We established that average LEB in the RF would reach 75.06 years (by 2024) provided that the demographic situation in the country recovers in the nearest future, LEB level reaches its values detected in 2018–2019, and SHD values grow to their preset levels according to the target scenario. Therefore, the detected growth potential amounts to 3.0 years (1095 days) against 2018. “Lifestyle-related determinants” produce the greatest effects on the growth potential in LEB by 2024 (461 days). We also identified effects produced by such SHD groups as “Sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory” (212 days), “Social and demographic indicators” (196 days), “Economic indicators” (131 days), “Indicators related to public healthcare” (70 days). An indicator that shows “A share of population doing physical exercises or sports” is the most significant determinant producing the greatest effects on potential changes in LEB. If it grows up to 55.0 %, a potential growth in LEB amounts to 243.5 days. If we do not consider COVID-related processes and rely only on the trends that are being observed now when predicting changes in the demographic situation by 2030, we can expect a possible additional growth in LEB that equals 286 days. The developed algorithm for determining growth potential in population LEB can be used as an instrument for determining and ranking priority health risk factors.
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