The impact affected by the covid–19 pandemic influences various sectors in Indonesia, with no exception in agriculture sector. However, the agriculture sector still becomes a sustaining sector for other economic sectors because society's necessity is fulfilled by agriculture. Shallot is one of seven important commodities as basic needs for Indonesian and horticulture primadonna. Covid–19 pandemic presence influences shallot marketing indirectly from farmer till modern market. This research was conducted to analyze market efficiency of national shallot before and after covid–19 pandemic breaking out in Indonesia and used secondary data, which was approached through price data in farmers, wholesalers, traditional markets, and modern markets. This research would be analyzed using Ordinary Least Square approach on Ravallion Model. The research result showed that national shallot market was inefficient in the middle of a pandemic. Characteristic of shallot market was certainly volatile and had fluctuated prices, but it was more volatile in the middle of pandemic than before the pandemic broke out. It could be seen from market connection index and variance value. One of causes that is undeniable is distribution and information obstruction, which is caused by pandemic breaking. Besides, Large Scale Social Restriction rule caused shallot distribution disturbed.
Countries in Europe, China and USA are the main destination of Indonesia's CPO exports so that in order to avoid more significant declining in value and export volume because of trade war and the existance of CPO black campaign, Indonesia must take a diversified step, especially for export market diversification. This study illustrates the condition of Indonesian CPO competitiveness in non-traditional markets, measures the position of Indonesia CPO export market attractiveness, and analyzes factors influence CPO exports. Data used are secondary data obtained from various resources. The time series and cross sections data consecutively consist of variables from 2002 to 2017 and 11 nontraditional importing countries. Time series variables consist of volume export of Indonesia CPO, exchange rate, export price, Indonesia GDP, importers GDP, and economic distance. X–model product export potential and gravity model were used to address the objectives. Indonesian CPO has optimistic market development potential because Indonesia CPO has strong competitiveness and in a rising star position.The analysis result with gravity model showed the factors affecting Indonesian CPO export to nontraditional countries was exchange rate, Indonesia GDP, importers GDP, and economic distance. Government role is important to initiate a long term trade agreement which benefits both parties.
The importance of palm oil as Indonesia's main export commodity from the non-oil and gas sector makes a study about the price integration of crude oil and vegetable oils is conducted. The time-series data is used are monthly data from 2002:2 to 2019:4. Using the Vector Correction Model (VECM), this study aimed to analyze the price integration among Log of Crude Oil Price (LCOP), Palm Oil Price (LPOP), Soybean Oil Price (LSOP), Sun Flower Oil Price (LSFOP) and Rapeseed Oil Price (LROP). Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test results show that the time series for those data are stationary at first difference. Using the Pearson Correlation test among price data indicates that there is a high positive correlation among those price data. It reveals a high degree of short-run integration among oil price data. Based on the Johansen cointegration test, the result reveals the presence of long-run relationships among determinants. Knowing presence of cointegration among the data, a bivariate cointegration test was conducted in this study. The test showed that LCOP did not have long-run relationship with vegetable oil prices. The Engel Granger Causality test revealed that generally, LPOP have influence on the movement both LCOP and other vegetable oil prices.
One of the programs devoted to address the problem of low farmer regeneration rate was Japan internship program for young farmers. Although it had been launched since 1984, this program had not yet examined its impact on increasing income. Therefore, this study aimed to: 1) Identify the characteristics of program alumni; 2) Analyze the development of program implementation mechanisms; 3) Analyze the impact of the program; and 4) Analyze the policy implications for increasing income. This research was conducted in East Java Province, Indonesia from September to February 2021. In order to answer the research objectives, the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test was used. The results showed that most of the alumni had relatively good characteristics in terms of age, education, training and experience. Based on the recruitment mechanism, the internship program had undergone a transformation from 1984 to 2021. Wilcoxon test results showed that this program had an impact on increasing alumni income after they returned to Indonesia. The role of the government in the sustainability of this internship program is a necessity because this program appears as a manifestation of the government's concern in developing the agricultural sector in Indonesia by increasing the experience and knowledge of farmers through soft skills and technical skills supporting the sustainability of their business. In addition, there is a need for an up-to-date information system related to Japan internship alumni, so that the sustainability of the results of the internship program can be continue.
There are two variants of processed coffee, there are brewed coffee and instant coffee. Each coffee have their own consumers. The difference of consumer preference on coffee consumption led to research idea about factors that affecting consumer preference on coffee consumption. This research was conducted to determine factors that affecting consumer preference on consuming between brewed coffee and instant coffee by the case study was taken in Surabaya. Factors that affecting preference of coffee selection are gender, age, last education, coffee drinking experience, early age of coffee consumption, and number of family members. With number of respondents equal to 57 respondents, this research would be analyzed by using logistic regression to determine the opportunity of which coffee were preferred by consumers. Based on parameter estimation result, four variables had a significant effect, there were gender, last education, drinking coffee experience, and number of family members. The four independent variables could explain the model of coffee consumer preference around 51 percent. Opportunities of adult male, with high school education level; drinking coffee experience around 11 -20 years; and number of families were more than five, consumed instant coffee around 0.13. Unlike the female consumer who preferred consuming instant coffee with opportunities was around 0.81 to brewed coffee. Producers have to be able to see that the calculation is an opportunity for them to differentiate their owned coffee product. Coffee producers can compete by making product innovation which could be affordable to all consumers both male and female.
Indonesian meat consumption has 40 percent deficit which was covered by importing. Meat price in international market tend to fluctuate. The gap between domestic demand and supply meat also the imported price fluctuation causes instability of domestic price. This research is conducted to analyze the volatility of meat price which implicated to food security in Indonesia. ARCH-GARCH model is used to estimate meat price volatility in Indonesia. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and cointegration test have been used for testing the presence of unit root and cointegration in the series. Langrange multiplier has been utilized to detect the presence of autoregressive conditional effect. Daily meat prices used are national average price which obtained from the Indonesia Ministry of Trade. This study reveals that meat price in Indonesia has high volatility with increasing price over the research period. The empirical model also shows asymetry effect. The results recommend that Indonesia should apply comprehensive managed import such as not only import on fresh meat and ready to cut bovine but also on breeding bovine. By the fulfilling production and stock, meat price can be more stable. By the price stabilization, food security concept will be reached so that every layer society can consume meat.
That HET is considered too low to absorp farmer's rice so that rice processing industry becomes farmer's choice to sell rice and their product become choice on middle and upper class consumer, especially urban society. This research was conducted to analyze the HET policy by forecasting on rice price through study in East Java market during 12 months later (June 2019). This research got a monthly rice price in East Java during January 2014 -June 2018 which was obtained from SIKAPERBAPO Department of Industry and Trade East Java Province [13]. There were three kinds of rice which would be forecasted. They were Bengawan, Mentik, and IR64. The forecasting is conducted using ARIMA method. Based on ARIMA method, the best ARIMA to forecast the price and support the review that rice policy is unsuitable are ARIMA (4, 1, 2) for bengawan rice, ARIMA (3, 1, 2) for mentik rice, and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for IR64 rice. It is important to review again about policy of rice HET by considering supply and demand on rice maket. The indication of monopolistic behaviour on rice market could not be denied in line with the development of rice as consumer goods. If in this case BULOG (Logistic Affair Agency) takes a role on rice downstream, it is necessary to review again related to the determination of HET and supported facilities to improve rice brand of local farmer so that farmer share and bargaining position of farmer increases.
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