This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input-output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13 billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state-of-the-art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.

We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.

Targeting cytocidal vectors to tumors and associated vasculature in vivo is a long-standing goal of human gene therapy. In the present study, we demonstrated that intravenous infusion of a matrix (i.e., collagen)-targeted retroviral vector provided efficacious gene delivery of a cytocidal mutant cyclin G1 construct (designated Mx-dnG1) in human cancer xenografts in nude mice. A nontargeted CAE-dnG1 vector (p = 0.014), a control matrix-targeted vector bearing a marker gene (Mx-nBg; p = 0.004), and PBS served as controls (p = 0.001). Enhanced vector penetration and transduction of tumor nodules (35.7 +/- 1.4%, mean +/- SD) correlated with therapeutic efficacy without associated toxicity. Kaplan-Meier survival studies were conducted in mice treated with PBS placebo, the nontargeted CAE-dnG1 vector, and the matrix-targeted Mx-dnG1 vector. Using the Tarone log-rank test, the overall p value for comparing all three groups simultaneously was 0.003, with a trend that was significant to a level of 0.004, indicating that the probability of long-term control of tumor growth was significantly greater with the matrix-targeted Mx-dnG1 vector than with the nontargeted CAE-dnG1 vector or PBS placebo. The present study demonstrates that a matrix-targeted retroviral vector deployed by peripheral vein injection (1) accumulated in angiogenic tumor vasculature within 1 hr, (2) transduced tumor cells with high-level efficiency, and (3) enhanced therapeutic gene delivery and long-term efficacy without eliciting appreciable toxicity.

Background-131 I-Metaiodobenzylguanidine ( 131 I-MIBG) provides targeted radiotherapy for children with neuroblastoma, a malignancy of the sympathetic nervous system. Dissociated radioactive iodide may concentrate in the thyroid, and MIBG is concentrated in the liver after MIBG therapy. The aim of our study was to analyze the effects of 131 I-MIBG therapy on thyroid and liver function.

For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy's ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of mandatory business closures in the U.S. and many other countries in order to control the spread of the COVID-19. The analysis is based on the application of a modified version of the GTAP model. We simulate mandatory closures in all countries or parts of countries that had imposed them as of 7 April for three-month and sixmonth cases. For the three-month scenario, we estimate a 20.3% decline of U.S. GDP on an annual basis, or $4.3 trillion. The employment decline of 22.4% in the U.S. for the three-month closure represents 35.2 million workers for that period. If the mandatory closures are extended to six months because of a second wave, these negative impacts would slightly more than double. The employment impacts are slightly greater in percentage terms than the GDP impacts because most service sectors, which are generally more labour-intensive, are more negatively impacted by the closures than are 'essential' sectors. Our results should be considered upper-bound estimates given such assumptions as businesses laying off workers no longer paying them wages or salaries. Note also that the article examines the mandatory closures alone and does not factor in any countervailing fiscal or monetary policies.

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