Estimating the Economic Consequences of a Port Shutdown: The Special Role of Resilience

Rose, Adam; Wei, Dan

doi:10.1080/09535314.2012.731379

Cited by 200 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…First, because both versions are fundamentally at odds with one another, implying that if the one version is a good representation of reality, by definition, the other version is not (Oosterhaven, 1996). Only a sophisticated case-specific combination of both models may provide a solution (see Oosterhaven, 1988, for the basic idea; and Rose and Wei, 2013, for a recent extensive application).…”

Section: Alternative Approaches To Capture the Wider Economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model

Oosterhaven

2017

Economic Systems Research

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This note shows that the inoperability input-output model (IIM) estimates only a part of mainly the negative indirect economic impacts of disasters, whereas it neglects most of the positive indirect impacts. This means that the IIM is not suited to prioritize industries for policy interventions that aim at reducing the negative impacts of such disasters. Besides, this note shows that the application of the IIM is problematic and tends to overestimate the subset of impacts that the model is able to quantify. Finally, we identify two approaches that much better capture the variety of different disaster impacts. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Alternative Approaches To Capture the Wider Economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model

Oosterhaven

2017

Economic Systems Research

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“…Presently, a more or less plausible measurement of the economy-wide impacts of an exogenous supply shock requires many additional assumptions and/or information as regards the adaptation behaviour of up-and downstream industries, as in Oosterhaven (1988), Hallegate (2008), and Rose and Wei (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

Oosterhaven

Többen

2017

Spatial Economic Analysis

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Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre-and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional inputoutput models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses. aux graves inondations survenues en Allemagne méridionale et orientale, en 2013. Nous modélisons les tentatives, par des acteurs économiques, de poursuivre, le plus possible, leurs activités normales en minimisant les gains d'informations du modèle de transactions économiques de l'économie présente entre la période précédent la catastrophe et celle qui lui fait suite. Les résultats montrent que l'assistance du gouvernement à la demande finale locale réduit dans une grande mesure les pertes indirectes dues aux inondations, alors qu'en plaçant une catastrophe en haut du cycle des affaires, on les augmente. Nous notons également que l'hypothèse de parts fixes de l'origine des échanges et de parts fixes du secteur industriel, comme dans tous les modèles d'entrée / sortie plurirégionaux, donne lieu à des estimations anormalement élevées des pertes indirectes. KEYWORDS MOTS CLÉSanalyse des désastres; commerce inter-régional; tableau offre -utilisation plurirégional; gains d'informations RESUMEN Repercusiones económicas más amplias por las fuertes inundaciones en Alemania: un enfoque de programación no lineal. Spatial Economic Analysis. En este artículo seguimos desarrollando una nueva metodología para calcular las repercusiones amplias e indirectas de desastres importantes que ponemos en práctica con la fuerte inundación de 2013 del sur y el este de Alemania. Modelamos, lo más cerca posible, los intentos de los actores económicos de continuar sus actividades habituales, por lo que minimizamos la ganancia de información entre el patrón antes y después de la catástrofe de las transacciones económicas de la economía a mano. Los resultados muestran que el apoyo gubernamental a la demanda final de ámbito local reduce considerablemente las pérdidas indirectas causadas por las inundaciones, mientras que sufrir una catástrofe en la cima del ciclo comercial las aumenta. Además, observamos que si suponemos cuotas fijas de origen comercial y cuotas fijas de mercado de la industria, al igual que en todos los modelos de entradas y salidas multirregionales, llegamos a estimaciones absurdamente grandes de las pérdidas indirectas. PA...

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“…Some of them focus on direct/indirect loss of an actual disaster from the perspective of case studies, including before-and-after macroeconomic (Albalabertrand, 1993), input-output (IO) models (Okuyama and Santos, 2014;Akhtar and Santos, 2013;Rose and Wei, 2012;Lin et al, 2012;Haimes et al, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade

Yang

Shi

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world more interconnected. International trade is an important approach linking the world. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked the global supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact of large-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world and faces frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravity model for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances and estimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partner countries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and trading partner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show the following: (1) China's natural disasters have a positive impact on exports but have no significant impact on imports; (2) trading partner countries' natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports; (3) both development level and land area of the partners are important in determining the intensity of natural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findings suggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, which demand further study.

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Estimating the Economic Consequences of a Port Shutdown: The Special Role of Resilience

Cited by 200 publications

References 26 publications

On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model

On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade

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