Impacts on the U.S. Macroeconomy of Mandatory Business Closures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Walmsley, Terrie; Rose, Adam; Wei, Dan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3570117

Cited by 28 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…In total, 127 valid responses were collected as classified in Table 3. While Shortage of labor (Borland and Charlton, 2020;Tredinnick and Laybats, 2020;Costa Dias et al, 2020;Walmsley et al, 2020;McGann et al, 2020;Fana et al, 2020;Sen et al, 2020;Menon, 2020;Sanderson and Brown, 2020;Sheptak and Menaker, 2020;Araya, 2021; interview) P03…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical analysis of pandemic impact on AEC organizations: the COVID-19 case

King

Rahman

Fauzi

et al. 2021

JEDT

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Purpose This study aims to investigate the interrelationships between COVID-19 pandemic impact and architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) organizations. To achieve that aim, the objectives are to: identify the critical pandemic impact (CPI) of COVID-19 on AEC organizations; compare the CPI between the different organization characteristics; and analyze the interrelationships between the CPI. Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review of 519 articles and in-depth interviews with 40 AEC practitioners were carried out, yielding 12 COVID-19 impacts. Then, data on the 12 impact’s criticality were collected through a survey among AEC practitioners. In total, 127 valid responses were received and analyzed using mean ranking analysis, analysis of variance and Spearman’s correlation. The findings were also compared with pandemic impacts from prior works. Findings Five CPI exist among the 12 impacts, namely, “reduced construction productivity,” “reduced foreign investment in the construction industry,” “reduced demand on construction-related works,” “disruption in the supply chain” and “reduced number of public projects.” “Reduced foreign investment in the construction industry” and “reduced demand on construction-related works” significantly impact small-medium enterprises than large enterprises. Also, “disruption in the supply chain” and “reduced construction productivity” are recurring impacts in all countries compared. Finally, moderate relationships exist between “reduced foreign investment in the construction industry” and “reduced demand on construction-related works” and “disruption in the supply chain” and “reduced construction productivity.” Originality/value The findings can be used to prioritize available resources in developing short-term responses for COVID-19. Also, action plans can be developed to mitigate the CPI from recurring.

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Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical analysis of pandemic impact on AEC organizations: the COVID-19 case

King

Rahman

Fauzi

et al. 2021

JEDT

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“…CGE models have the advantage of characterizing the economy as a set of interconnected supply chains. These models have been applied successfully to examine economic impacts of health threats, such as influenza pandemics (see, e.g., Dixon et al 2010Dixon et al , 2020Prager et al 2017;Walmsley et al 2020). In particular, we use the ImpactECON Supply-Chain Model Minor 2016, 2020a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

Walmsley

Rose²,

Wei³

2020

EconDisCliCha

Self Cite

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We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.

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“…The problem of a pandemic is actually a threat to almost all countries. The threat of this pandemic cannot be denied to cause a variety of new problems in various aspects of life, such as economic and social aspects (Walmsley, Rose, and Wei, 2020;Malawani et al 2020). The pandemic in general is not only a severe public health problem but an initial trigger for the emergence of catastrophic economic and political crises in infected countries (Bartik et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia

Prawoto¹,

Purnomo²,

Zahra³

2020

IJEBA

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Purpose: The purpose of this article is to examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on social and economic mobility occurring in Indonesia. The research illustrates that the effects of the pandemic are strongly felt in mobility in the socioeconomic sectors. Design/Methodology/Approach: To give answer to the research question whether COVID-19 pandemic has impact on socioeconomic mobility in Indonesia, firstly, we review the literature to find out what different scholars have found in recent researches concerning this subject as well as the current issue and the methods and models used in collecting, processing, and analyzing data. The processing of the data of the above-mentioned reports has been done by SPSS software program, specifically using regression. Findings: The possible impacts caused a decrease in socioeconomic activities and reduced community income. The results of the correlation analysis showed that there was a strong relationship between a pandemic tested positive for COVID-19 and mortality rates with socioeconomic conditions with an average correlation coefficient above 0.80. Practical Implications: This paper will provide a detail analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on socioeconomic mobility, with this impact, government policies relating to human life, economic policies to increase state expenditure (government expenditure), and tax incentives must be made. Furthermore, monetary policy that can accelerate the increase in production by reducing the cost of production through the cost of capital and reduce energy prices becomes an essential choice. Originality/Value: This research paper highlights an empirical analysis based on real data of socio economy mobility in Indonesia.

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Impacts on the U.S. Macroeconomy of Mandatory Business Closures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cited by 28 publications

References 7 publications

Critical analysis of pandemic impact on AEC organizations: the COVID-19 case

Critical analysis of pandemic impact on AEC organizations: the COVID-19 case

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia

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