Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Abstract

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state-of-the-art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

“…lost earnings due to illness and productivity costs. There are examples of such studies based in the Americas, 6,7,[19][20][21][22] Asia 8,23 and Europe. 24,25 Other models have added an estimated value of the intrinsic undesirability of nonfatal illness or of pandemic fear, as seen in the population response to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia.…”

“…Attempts to justify greater investment have mostly been based on estimates of the industrial and macroeconomic losses attributable to influenza pandemics. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11] We have recently extended the loss assessment to include a valuation of the lives lost as a result of the increases in mortality resulting from influenza-pandemic risk. 12 The inclusion of such a valuation increased the estimated loss attributable to modelled pandemic risk several fold.…”

The Pandemic and its Impacts

“…Influenza pandemics are characterised by a high incidence and fatality rate with 250,000-500,000 people deaths each year, rapid and wide-spread transmission (WHO 2004). Recent influenza pandemics have killed significant numbers of people worldwide, and contributed to an estimated 8,870-18,300 deaths in 2009-2010 (Prager, Wei, & Rose, 2016). For example, May 2009 saw the emergence from Mexico of a new H1N1 virus capable of humanto-human transmission (Verikios et al, 2015).…”

“…One of the main burdens is from the loss of earnings of those who have died. Prager, Wei et al (2016) have estimated that economic losses from a pandemic influenza in the USA would be USD 90 -220 billion, and of that, 80% would come from the value of expected future lifetime earnings of those who would die (Prager et al, 2016). McKibben and Sidorenko (2006) estimated that the economic cost of an influenza pandemic range from USD 374 billion for a mild pandemic to USD 7.3 trillion for a severe pandemic (MacKellarSource:, 2007).…”

“…For instance , Prager Wei et all (2016) estimate that the air transport industry would suffer a loss of almost 20% or USD 7.9 billion, if US residents cut down on travel. Thus, pandemics have both immediate and long-term effects that can damage the economic life of a nation for many years to come (Prager et al, 2016). The psychological and economic impacts of ineffective screening at airports were substantial affecting directly airport business in the 2003 SARS outbreak (Chung, 2015).…”