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In postoperative hypovolaemic patients, lactated Ringer's solution can significantly improve haemodynamics at the end of volume loading, but this effect completely disappears at 120 min. Ten millilitres per kilogram of colloid bolus (especially HES) improved the haemodynamics at 120 min; however, this was by only 5-25% compared with baseline. The colloids caused significantly larger AUCs than lactated Ringer's solution, but only in the cardiac index, GEDVI and DO2I, plus human albumin in the SVV.

Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions.

This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

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Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-systems (IPGSs) of the national innovation system. Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We identify key features of FLAs and IPGSs and explore hypotheses on the likely 'fit' between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is contribute to a more refined theory building concerning the role and Ebben a tanulmányban a NIR egyik fontos alrendszerére, az innovációpolitika irányítási rendszerére (IPIR) gyakorolt lehetséges hatásokat vizsgáljuk, mivel még e viszonylag szűk területről is meglehetősen keveset tudunk. Különböző FLA-módszerek terjedtek el az egyes országokban, és az IPIR is sokféle lehet. Ezért először az FLA-módszerek és az IPIR fontos jellemzőit emeljük ki, majd egyes FLA-módszerek és eltérő IPIR-ek illeszkedésére vonatkozó hipotéziseket vizsgálunk meg. Három nemzeti előretekintési programot -a görögöt, a magyart és a németet -részletesebben is elemzünk, ezeken keresztül mutatjuk be a javasolt elemzési keret érvényességét. Ez az elemzési keret elméleti és gyakorlati célokat is szolgálhat. Egyrészt hozzájárulhat ahhoz, hogy pontosabb, megalapozottabb elméletet alkossunk az FLA-módszerek szerepéről és várható hatásairól. Másrészt segítheti a megfelelő FLA-módszerek kiválasztását a lehetséges fejlődési folyamatok feltárására és befolyásolására irányuló tevékenységek tervezése során, illetve az ilyen tevékenységek hatásainak utólagos értékelését, s ezzel a hatásosabb szakpolitikai intézkedések kidolgozását.

Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.