Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Abstract

This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems

“…Cagnin et al 2013;Duan et al 2014;Kajikawa et al 2008;Meade and Islam 2015), scenarios on their role in possible future energy systems (cf. Fortes et al 2015;IEA 2014;Schaeffer et al 2015;WWF and Ecofys 2011) and the policy implications they entail (Eom et al 2015;Gouvea et al 2013;Johnson et al 2015;Riahi et al 2013;Schwanitz et al 2015).…”

Interactive foresight simulation

“…This also includes the development of concepts and practices for thinking about the future -a 'foresight culture' [82] • Communication channels between CSA practitioners, stakeholders and policy makers • Trans-disciplinary cooperation by the means of CSA workshops, enabling the stakeholders, policy makers and foresight practitioners to undertake more interactive roles and create new configurations of scenarios and road mapping • Initiator skill development to use CSA to increase the number of new ideas and projects [83] • Opponent skill development to use CSA to challenge the new ideas and assumptions [83] Capacity building is closely related to awareness raising both in the sense of ensuring the effectiveness of the latter, and as a possible spin-off effect of awareness raising. The case company consisted of several departments with employees from all kinds of backgrounds, which emphasised the need for skill development and trans-disciplinary cooperation.…”

Identification of technology development trends based on subject–action–object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells

“…This combined method is usually processed by the computer-based method and supplemented by experts' knowledge. Nowadays, the intense technological changes and environmental uncertainties demand a forecast of technology development trends and the ability to make a timely response (Cagnin et al, 2013). Therefore, the TRM, as an essential forecasting tool, will play an increasingly important role in future.…”