Interactive foresight simulation

Abstract

The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation with which the strategies can be continuously developed. The contribution of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gapbetween strategic, tactical and operational levels of an organisation. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to work proactively with both the breadth and depth of strategies using a Danish knowledge intensive company as an example.

Linking narratives and energy system modelling in transport scenarios: A participatory perspective from Denmark

“…Thus, the use of driving forces can ensure the coverage of the most relevant parameters for each case. The definition of key driving forces can arguably raise awareness (Hansen et al, 2016) and inspire mutual learning (Soria-Lara & Banister, 2018;Baumann & White, 2015) among both stakeholders and scientists, when identifying the relevant drivers and cause-effect relationships for the future transport system. Particularly, during the first brainstorming phase, the construction of influence chains allowed to find associations between the various parameters, for instance the links between demography, consumer behaviour and urban planning.…”

“…Moreover, some foresight exercises explicitly apply the Story and Simulation (SAS) approach (Alcamo, 2008) as an overarching framework for the organization of the scenario planning process (O'Mahony, 2014;Kämäri et al, 2008;European Environment Agency, 2007). Under this framework, researchers describe the translation and dialogue between narrative storylines and numerical models as an intricate and challenging step (Trutnevyte et al, 2014;Fortes et al, 2015), due to e.g., the difficulty in providing quantitative estimates to highly uncertain drivers (Varho & Tapio, 2013); presence of implicit information in the qualitative descriptions (Hansen et al, 2016;Fortes et al, 2015); and time-consuming exercises with hard to grasp concepts, as fuzzy set theory (Kok et al, 2015) or multi-criteria analysis (Hickman et al, 2012).…”

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“…Rohrbeck et al (2007) define technology intelligence, political environment foresight, competitive intelligence, and consumer foresight as the main elements of strategic foresight. People, organisation, networks, culture, and information usage are further dimensions defined by various other authors (Hansen et al 2015, Joneidi Jafari and NiliPourTabataba'i 2017, Ryu and Lee 2016. According to…”

“…Many authors underline the importance of the general involvement of management in any foresight process: their commitment and responsibility to investment in strategic foresight on the one hand, and on the other hand their participation in accordance with their capacity (Jarratt and Stiles 2010, Peter and Jarratt 2015, Rohrbeck 2011, Westley 1990). Highlighting the importance of involving stakeholders, such as employees, partners, customers, or any other actors in the close environment of the organisation, has been recognised by various authors (Berkhout and Hertin 2002, Duin and Graaf 2010, Hansen et al 2015. Finally, for analysing, evaluating and assessing the importance of future trends, expert interviews help to identify the core driving forces (Abadie et al 2010, Hansen et al 2015, Holopainen and Toivonen 2011, Sarpong and Meissner 2018.…”

“…Highlighting the importance of involving stakeholders, such as employees, partners, customers, or any other actors in the close environment of the organisation, has been recognised by various authors (Berkhout and Hertin 2002, Duin and Graaf 2010, Hansen et al 2015. Finally, for analysing, evaluating and assessing the importance of future trends, expert interviews help to identify the core driving forces (Abadie et al 2010, Hansen et al 2015, Holopainen and Toivonen 2011, Sarpong and Meissner 2018.…”