Linking narratives and energy system modelling in transport scenarios: A participatory perspective from Denmark

Abstract

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Contextualizing Scenarios to Explore Social-Ecological Futures: A Three Step Participatory Case Study for the Humboldt Current Upwelling System

“…Hence, in line with many other authors, we do not aim at forecasts or predictions, but see scenarios rather as plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key uncertainties and drivers of change (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [MA], 2005;Palomo et al, 2011;Hamann et al, 2012;Kebede et al, 2018;Saito et al, 2019). Scenario construction in this sense is based on the premise that the future cannot be predicted but rather shaped (Venturini et al, 2019) and that the exploration about what could happen might be a useful "rehearsal" for the future.…”

A pathway design framework for sectoral deep decarbonization: the case of passenger transportation

“…To address the above challenges, combined qualitative-quantitative participatory methods have been developed (Venturini et al, 2019), where scenarios build on the complementarity between qualitative narratives or storylines, and quantification of the pathways. Narratives, as coherent stories of the future, allow the collective creative process of investigating contrasted futures driven by alternative combinations of drivers and policies and identifying causal linkages and interdependencies (Banister and Hickman, 2013;Banister, 2018, 2017).…”

“…This framework should be based both on qualitative or semiquantitative language understandable by all stakeholders, and on comparable quantitative scenarios. While combined qualitative-quantitative participatory methods have been used to study transportation futures (Varho and Tapio, 2013;Venturini et al, 2019), a structured comparison framework informing all the main system transformations and public questions in the context of deep decarbonization is still lacking, as well as an analytical approach to structure and ensure a transparent policy debate.…”

Spatially-resolved urban energy systems model to study decarbonisation pathways for energy services in cities

“…As discussed in the literature review and from Table 1, at the time of writing, most urban energy systems modelling focuses on the provision of some energy service demands within heating, cooling, transport, and electricity for appliances; or uses coarse spatial resolutions such as integrated assessment models, which model national or regional scales (such as the MARKAL model [34], the ESME model [50] or the TIMES model [24]); or focus on specific technologies or on specific energy service demands (for example, Chiam, Easwaran, Mouquet, Fazlollahi, and Millás [51] optimise the operation of a district cooling network; del Hoyo Arce, Herrero López, López Perez, Rämä, Klobut, and Febres [52] model district heating and cooling; Pye and Daly [25] focus on urban transport; and Liu, Ho, Lee, Hashim, Lim, Klemeš, and Yee Mah [53] model distributed generation for supplying service demands for heat and electricity). No modelling framework exists that simultaneously includes the demand for heating, cooling, transport, and electricity for appliances, at a fine spatial resolution, and taking into account the trade-offs between supply, network infrastructure, and end-use technologies for all the aforementioned energy service demands simultaneously.…”

“…Gerboni, Grosso, Carpignano, and Dalla Chiara [23] stress the importance of linking energy and transport models to study energy systems and support policy decisions, highlighting that energy use in transport is one of the main demands of the overall energy system. Likewise, Venturini, Hansen, and Andersen [24] study the integration of the buildings and transport sectors' narratives for studying transport scenarios. They generate a model in TIMES-DK which incorporates quantitative and qualitative methods for the transport scenario, concluding on the importance of system's integration and the use of mixed methods for building coherent storylines.…”