Contextualizing Scenarios to Explore Social-Ecological Futures: A Three Step Participatory Case Study for the Humboldt Current Upwelling System

Abstract

In the face of global change, the exploration of possible futures of marine socialecological systems (MSES) becomes increasingly important. A variety of models aims at improving our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and complexities by assessing how systems react to internal and external drivers of change. However, these models are often built from a natural-science perspective through a reductionist and top-down knowledge production process that does not engage with the interests, concerns and knowledge of stakeholders. Our work explores different futures of the Peruvian MSES tied to the Humboldt Current Upwelling System (HCUS) through a sequential integrative participatory scenario process. The methodology used opens novel ways to explore, at different contextual levels, the uncertainties of the future and, in doing so, to include diverging world views of different actors. This approach implies a broader social processing of scientific projections about the future and encourages the articulation of different notions of sustainability. We thereby contribute to current scientific discussions on scenario planning in MSES by exploring potential futures through the analysis of narratives, a process that helps to identify plausible future development pathways that can inform different types of ecosystem modeling or policy making.

Planning for Livelihoods Under Hydrosocial Uncertainty in Periurban Pune

“…First, as a planning tool, it supports adaptive decision-making under uncertain conditions (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010), broadens the perception of possible developments (Wulf et al, 2013) and thus allows dynamic future designs to be explored (Rikkonen et al, 2006;DasGupta et al, 2019). Second, as a social learning tool, it facilitates understanding contexts and identifying and developing adaptive future paths and coping mechanisms and permits an informed selection and execution of broader strategies with full awareness of the consequences of actions (Rikkonen et al, 2006;Giaoutzi et al, 2012;Wulf et al, 2013;Galafassi et al, 2018;Garteizgogeascoa et al, 2020). Giaoutzi et al (2012) consider it an interactive instrument to facilitate engagement in change processes and theory-to-practice translation for policy makers, stakeholders, and the public.…”

“…Second, we therefore complement the political ecology perspective with a scenario-based planning approach in a normative, inclusive, solution-oriented way (Oteros-Rozas et al, 2015). Scenario-building enhances co-productive social learning, through which socio-ecological complexities and corresponding adaptation measures are participatorily developed to inform decision-making (Oteros-Rozas et al, 2015;Galafassi et al, 2018;Garteizgogeascoa et al, 2020).…”

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in Latin America: Knowledge Gaps and the Urgency to Translate Science Into Action

“…Bio-Environmental baselines and time series represent global trends and local pressures that can be evaluated against natural variation for policy and decision-making at many levels (Muelbert et al, 2019). Integrative scenarios, combining environmental, socioeconomic and health sciences, such as the Nexus method (Howells et al, 2013), has been successfully applied to climate and fisheries in the Humboldt Current System (Garteizgogeascoa et al, 2020), in the assessment of climate vulnerability in Brazil (Araujo et al, 2019), and in the International Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) programs described in Muelbert et al (2019) and detailed for LAC in Table S2.…”

Intertwined realities — hybrid institutions in the Peruvian fisheries and aquaculture sectors

“…Enhancing the institutional regulation of marine resources in favor of sustainable fisheries and aquaculture practices is a fundamental objective for national and international governance bodies (FAO 2015 ). In this regard, countries rich in marine resources, such as Peru, have been prompted to adopt existing legal frameworks and develop new ones to regulate fisheries and aquaculture production, and establish protected areas to prevent resource depredation (Garteizgogeascoa et al 2020 ). However, political factors and economic development models have shaped the way these policies have been designed and enforced in each country.…”