Analysis of producers' and intermediaries' livestock price expectations was used to describe the market in Quetta, the largest livestock market in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan, and to identify factors that determine price expectations of small ruminants. A total of 4800 expected prices for sheep and goats were collected from producers and market intermediaries at monthly intervals between January 1991 and December 1992. In addition to the expected price of the animal, liveweight, species, sex, breed, body condition (fatness), calendar day and month were recorded, and whether data were collected on a meat or meatless day. Monthly rainfall data were also collected. Models of goat and sheep price expectations were built to compare the similarity of the behaviour of producers and intermediaries.Results indicated that producers and intermediaries expected high prices from November to January and during religious holidays. They expected premiums and discounts related to animals' attributes. Liveweight and seasonality had the strongest effect on prices. Rainfall in the current and previous month was positively related to seller's expected prices suggesting that livestock are retained to take advantage of favourable grazing conditions. The models of priee expectations showed that producers adjusted expected goat prices (p s 0.10) for seasonality, liveweight, body condition, age, sex and breed, while they adjusted sheep prices for seasonality and liveweight only. High pay-offs could be expected if extension efforts focused on factors that determine sheep meat quality; however, the retail ceiling price of meat and the lack of grading are a disincentive to work in this direction.Seasonality of supply and demand is important in determining prices and this study provides baseline information for market scheduling; however, scheduling of sales of transhumant pastoralists may be difficult to achieve. Further investigation is justified to understand the gap in marketing knowledge between producers who sell in the villages and those who sell in Quetta.Livestock production and marketing constraints have been identified as the major factors that limit animal offtake in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan (Nagy et aI., 1991). * Corresponding author. Elsevier Science B.V. SSDl 0169-515 0(94)(J0020-3Research and extension services, when available, have focused on the biological aspects of production such as de-worming, vaccination, supplemental feeding and breeding. However, other aspects that affect animal offtake such as the grazing rights of pastoral and agro-pastoral production systems, the existence of a ceiling price on re-
!lOA. Rodriguez et al. / Agricultural Economics /2 (/995) [79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89][90]