Stochastic Modeling of Short‐Term Cattle Operations

Rodríguez, Abelardo; Taylor, R. Garth

doi:10.2307/1241982

Cited by 18 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…In making optimal decisions under rainfall and price variability, early sales was an important factor in whether the stocker operation was to avoid negative returns. These findings agreed with those of other authors such as Garoian et al (1990), Schroeder and Featherstone (1990), and Rodriguez and Taylor (1988). When all 15 optimal policies were compared, rainfall had more effect on the timing of sales than price.…”

Section: / Conclusionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In these type of models, the optimal solution depends on the level of control applied to the system level of production, input costs, and price variability. Fisher (1985), Rodriguez and Taylor (1988). Lambert (19X9), Garoian et al (1990), and Schroeder and Featherstone (1990) incorporated production and price variability into dynamic optimization models.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of these previous efforts concentrated in obtaining optimal marketing policies for cow-calf and cowcalf/yearling operations. With the exception of Rodriguez and Taylor (1988), no research efforts have looked into the development of intra-seasonal optimal marketing policies for stocker operations in the presence of rainfall and price risks at different stocking rates.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Optimization of Rangeland Management Strategies under Rainfall and Price Risks

Carande¹,

Barlett²,

Gutierrez³

1995

Journal of Range Management

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Dynamic programming was used to obtain optimal management and marketing policies for stocker operations in Southeastern Colorado under different stocking rates, rainfall, and price scenarios. Simulated steer liveweights at low, moderate, and high stocking rates were incorporated with simulated steer prices to masimize the present value of net returns from the sale of 0,50, and 100% of the steer inventory in July, August, September, or October. Two low-risk, 1 moderate-risk, and 2 high-risk scenarios were considered. The 2 low-risk scenarios were favorable rainfall-optimistic price and favorable rainfall-pessimistic price. The moderate-risk scenario was average rainfallaverage price. The 2 high-risk scenarios were unfavorable rainfall-optimistic price and unfavorable rainfall-pessimistic price. The highest net returns from the low-risk and moderate-risk scenarios were obtained at the high stocking rate with sales in September and October. The highest net returns from the highrisk scenarios were obtained at the moderate stocking rate with sales in September and October. Risk-averse operators who are not prepared to handle sales before October will be better off using a low stocking rate. Risk-taker operators will obtain higher net returns than risk-averse operators using a high stocking rate providing they are prepared to sell half of the herd in July if cumulative rainfall up to June is below 149 mm. If this high stocking rate is maintained beyond July, operators should sell in September independently of the amount of rainfall or the level of prices in August.

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confidence: 91%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Optimization of Rangeland Management Strategies under Rainfall and Price Risks

Carande¹,

Barlett²,

Gutierrez³

1995

Journal of Range Management

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“…Dillon and Burley, 1961; Hildreth and Riewe, 1963). Subsequently, more sophisticated models that capture the impact of grazing pressure on rangeland productivity were developed, for instance by Karp and Pope (1984) and Rodriguez and Taylor (1988). Some recent rangeland models encompass both dynamics and stochasticity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficient versus Sustainable Livestock Grazing in the Sahel

Weikard¹,

Hein²

2010

J Agricultural Economics

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To date, there is no consensus on optimal stocking rates in the semi‐arid Sahel. We develop a model for livestock management based on a detailed analysis of ecosystem dynamics, and we apply it to calculate optimal and sustainable livestock stocking rates in a Sahelian rangeland. The general model accounts for stochastic rainfall and the long‐term impact of grazing on rangeland productivity. For the case study area, the model shows that the optimal stocking rate is higher than the sustainable stocking rate. Hence, with current prices, it is optimal for the pastoralist society to deplete their resource base. In our case study, we also find that the current stocking rate exceeds the optimal stocking rate, which adds to soil depletion.

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“…Often, however, researchers have used a modeling approach to address the issue of production and/or market risk in grazing systems. Examples of studies which have modeled the stocking decision using either bayesian decision analysis, simulation, dynamic programming, or optimal control include White and Eidman (1971), Curl1 (1978), Rodriguez and Taylor (1988), Riechers et al (1989), Huffaker and Wilen (1991), Hart (1989), Tore11 et al (1991), and Carande et al (1995). Given the complexity of grazing systems and the stocking decision, Scarnecchia (1994) suggests that in order to "advance research on the multiple relationships of livestock grazing, computer based analyses.…”

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confidence: 99%

Stocking Rate Risk for Pasture-Fed Steers under Weather Uncertainty

Parsch¹,

Popp²,

Loewer³

1997

Journal of Range Management

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ResumenA biophysical model, GRAZE, is used to simulate beef forage performance for stocker steers pastured on common bermudagrass. Eight alternative stocking rates, ranging from low to high grazing intensity, are simulated over 14 'states of nature" using historical weather data The impact of weather variability on animal weight gain and economic performance is Assessed and empirical cumulative distributions of net returns are developed. The risk efficient stocking rate strategies are identified for alternative decision-maker risk attitudes using generalized stochastic dominance. Under improved pasture conditions in Arkansas, results show that (a) expected weight gain per head is hugely independent of grazing intensity until a critical stocking rate (6 hd/ha) is attained; (b) the highest expected net return per hectare is achieved under a lower stocking rate (10 hd/ha) than one which results in highest expected weight gain per hectare (12 hd/ha); and, (c) an increase in the stocking rate is accompanied by greater production (weather) risk which is reflected in increased variance of weight gain and net returns as well as a higher frequency and magnitude of economic losses.

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Stochastic Modeling of Short‐Term Cattle Operations

Cited by 18 publications

References 17 publications

Optimization of Rangeland Management Strategies under Rainfall and Price Risks

Optimization of Rangeland Management Strategies under Rainfall and Price Risks

Efficient versus Sustainable Livestock Grazing in the Sahel

Stocking Rate Risk for Pasture-Fed Steers under Weather Uncertainty

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