Soybean yield in future climate scenarios for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Abstract

-The objective of this work was to estimate the yield potential and the water-limited yield of soybean (Glycine max) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in two future climate scenarios, SRES A1B and RCP4.5, using the SoySim and Cropgro-Soybean simulation models. In both models, three maturity groups (4.8, 5.5, and 6.0) and six sowing dates (09/01, 10/01, 11/01, 12/01, 01/01, and 02/01) were considered in the SRES A1B-CMIP3 and RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenarios. The analyzed variable was grain yield at 13% moisture ). Soybean yield potential in Rio Grande do Sul should increase up to the end of the 21 st century, according to both scenarios. Water-limited yield of soybean also increases up to the end of the 21 st century, by the SRES A1B-CMIP3 scenario; however, it will decrease in future periods, by the RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenario because of limited soil water.Index terms: Glycine max, climate change, Cropgro-Soybean model, RCP4.5, SoySim model, SRES A1B. Produtividade de soja em cenários climáticos futuros para o Rio Grande do SulResumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a produtividade potencial e a produtividade com limitação de água em soja (Glycine max), no Rio Grande do Sul, em dois cenários climáticos futuros, SRES A1B e RCP4.5, por meio dos modelos agrícolas de simulação SoySim e Cropgro-Soybean. Consideraram-se, em ambos os modelos, três grupos de maturação (4.8, 5.5 e 6.0) e seis datas de semeadura (01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/01 e 01/02), nos cenários SRES A1B-CMIP3 e RCP4.5-CMIP5. A variável analisada foi a produtividade de grãos de soja a 13% de umidade (Mg ha -1 ). A produtividade potencial de soja no Rio Grande do Sul deve aumentar até o final do século XXI, de acordo com ambos os cenários. A produtividade de soja com limite de água também aumenta até o final do século XXI, pelo cenário SRES A1B-CMIP3; porém, ela decrescerá nos períodos futuros, pelo cenário RCP4.5-CMIP5, em razão do estresse hídrico no solo.Termos para indexação: Glycine max, mudanças climáticas, modelo Cropgro-Soybean, RCP4.5, modelo SoySim, SRES A1B.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the economy in different regions of Brazil

“…More recently, several studies have emerged in Brazil with an agronomic approach or under a partial equilibrium economic approach, which tried to estimate the direct impact that the climate changes projected for the rest of this century will have on the productivity of the main agricultural crops in the country (for example, Féres et al, 2009;Santos et al, 2011;Marin et al, 2013;Araújo et al 2014;Walter et al, 2014;Assunção & Chein, 2016;Pires et al, 2016;Cruz et al, 2016;Verhage et al, 2017;Cera et al, 2017;Tavares et al, 2018). These studies have, although in a very incipient way, allowed the first investigations of the impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture, based on the general equilibrium approach, using as inputs these agricultural productivity projections -instead of losses of apt areas -similarly to what has been done for some time in the international literature.…”

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

“…To date, several studies have highlighted that the impacts of climate change on agricultural and forest crops are highly complex and they are dependent on species, sowing dates, and may be site‐specific. Some studies have indicated that temperatures increases, as observed in South America, have a negative effect on crops, whereas CO 2 increases could be beneficial for changes in water availability (Cera et al ., 2017; Ramirez‐Cabral et al ., 2017; Pirovani et al ., 2018; Florêncio et al ., 2019; Elli et al ., 2020; Reis et al ., 2021). However, the level of uncertainty in the CO 2 results has been consistently high in all studies (Hao et al ., 2014; Ramirez‐Cabral et al ., 2017).…”

Climate risk zoning for gladiolus production under three climate change scenarios

“…The quality of flowers is the most important factor that must be taken into account in the production of ornamental crops, unlike other field crops in which studies aim to find alternatives to improve productivity (Rio et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2015a, b). Most ornamental crops, unlike gladiolus, are grown in greenhouses, where the air temperature is modified (Moccaldi & Runkle, 2007), so studies on the effect of climate change scenarios are commonly performed for field crops (Bhattarai et al, 2017;Cera et al, 2017).…”