Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

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O ecoturismo é uma das atividades mais desenvolvidas em Parques Nacionais. A implementação de trilhas eco turísticas pode funcionar como atrativo turístico e favorecer empreendimentos locais, entretanto, podem causar impactos negativos diretos ao meio ambiente. Esses impactos podem ser minimizados através de estudos prévios para verificação de viabilidade na implementação das trilhas. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi apontar fragilidades e potencialidades socioambientais de um projeto de trilha para o uso turístico no Parque Nacional Serra da Canastra (PNSC), localizado no sudoeste de Minas Gerais, no bioma Cerrado. Para tanto, a partir de análise multicritério no software ArcGIS, foram elaborados os mapas de suscetibilidade à erosão e aptidão ao uso do turístico do entorno da trilha. A análise final foi realizada por meio da Matriz SWOT, que permitiu sintetizar as fragilidades e potencialidades socioambientais, evidenciando as forças e fraquezas (situação presente) e as oportunidades e ameaças (situação futura, caso a proposta de trilha seja efetivada). Os resultados mostram que mais de 80% da área estudada possui alta e muito alta aptidão ao ecoturismo, sendo suas principais potencialidades a proximidade a recursos hídricos e a estradas de acesso, a predominância de declividade moderada (3-8%) e a possibilidade de desenvolvimento do turismo local e de atividades de sensibilização ambiental. Por outro lado, as principais fragilidades apontaram para a ameaça de compactação do solo, a evasão de espécies endêmicas e o relevo escarpado encontrado em um trecho da trilha, mostrando que pequenas alterações no trajeto tornam viável a implementação da trilha proposta. Cerrado Biome: social-environmental weaknesses and potentialities of a trail project in the Serra da Canastra National Park ABSTRACTEcotourism is one of the most developed activities in National Parks. The implementation of eco-tourism trails can act as tourist attraction and favor local enterprises, however, they can cause direct negative impacts on the environment. These impacts can be minimized through previous studies to verify the feasibility of implementing the trails. Therefore, the objective of this work was to point out socio-environmental weaknesses and potentialities of a trail project for tourist use in the Serra da Canastra National Park (PNSC), located in the southwest of Minas Gerais, in the Cerrado biome. For that, using multicriteria analysis in the ArcGIS software, maps of susceptibility to erosion and aptitude for tourism use around the trail were elaborated. The final analysis was carried out using the SWOT Analysis, which made it possible to summarize the socio-environmental weaknesses and potentialities, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses (present situation) and opportunities and threats (future situation, if the  proposed trail is implemented). The results show that more than 80% of the studied area has high and very high aptitude for ecotourism, its main potential being the proximity to water resources and access roads, the predominance of moderate declivity (3-8%) and the possibility of development of local tourism and environmental awareness activities. On the other hand, the main weaknesses pointed to the threat of soil compaction, the evasion of endemic species and the rugged relief found in a stretch of the trail, showing that small changes in the path make the implementation of the proposed trail viable.Keywords: Protected areas; park trail; ecotourism; SWOT analysis.

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