Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Abstract

Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

Mangrove forests under climate change in a 2°C world

“…For example, the pace at which available accommodation space becomes filled in minerogenic systems is primarily a function of sediment supply. within regions; under 2 C warming South American mangroves may experience a 150 mm per year precipitation increase above preindustrial levels (central coast of Brazil) delivered in more extreme pulses, or a 150 mm per year decrease (Caribbean coast of Colombia, Venezuela) (Torres et al, 2022).…”

Analyzing the Societal Cost of Electric Roads Compared to Batteries and Oil for All Forms of Road Transport

“…The transportation industry accounts for approximately 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions [5], one of the largest contributors to pollution in the world. The average temperature of Earth is increasing and there is talk of reaching the 2 • C limit-if the average temperature of the earth exceeds this figure, the side effects will be very noticeable [6]. By reducing the use of petrol-powered cars, CO 2 emissions are reduced [7].…”

Machine-learning ensembled CMIP6 projection reveals socio-economic pathways will aggravate global warming and precipitation extreme

“…There are different results of global warming and precipitation extreme from these two phases, in which it seems more aggravative in CMIP6 than CMIP5 according to the results from this study. Torres et al (2022) projected temperature for South America and stated that the years related to 1.5 ℃ and we have noted that Asia will experience an increasing of 4.32 ℃ under RCP4.5, which is more intensive than the tendency under SSP2-4.5 in the mid-21st century. Moreover, Ongoma et al (2018) estimated an increasing in temperature at 2.8 °C and 5.4 °C over East Africa under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios until 2100, respectively.…”