Manifestation of emergent properties in risk assessment of oil and gas companies

Khvostina, Inesa; Havadzyn, Nataliia; Yurchenko, Nataliy

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20196508001

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Oil and gas production enterprises of Ukraine have an extensive organizational structure and a complex technological and production process, which is characterized by significant risks to their activities [1].…”

Section: The Task Of Mass Service For the Organization And Managementioning

confidence: 99%

“… types and parameters of laws for the distribution of applications for crews and the duration of repair works for each well;  losses from well downtime per unit of time;  average annual maintenance costs for one crew;  the number of repair crews (the minimum number of crews is determined on the basis of condition (1) an then increases by one at each calculation cycle until the value of the objective function (5) begins to decrease);  the value  , the moment of completion of calculations.…”

Section: Solving the Problem Of Optimizing The Repair Work Usinmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Optimization of arranging of repair works at oil and gas enterprises through use of simulation modeling tools

Hobyr¹,

Babenko²,

Савко³

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the 2019 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System (MDSM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is substantiated the expediency of using the methods of the queuing theory for making managerial decisions in the face of uncertainty and risk. The model of organizing repair works at oil and gas companies has been improved, and its implementation ensures the optimization of the costs of maintaining repair crews and the reduction of losses from well downtime. Well repair by repair crews is considered as a multichannel queuing system in which the flow of service requests is the flow of repair applications, and the maintenance procedure consists of providing a repair crew according to applications in the order they are received. The maintenance procedure consists in the use of a repair crew according to the application, which is considered completed after the completion of the work of this crew at the facility, and the order of satisfying applications is carried out in the order they are received. Testing the proposed model of organizing repair works on the example of the fields of the three largest oil and gas companies in the Western region of Ukraine made it possible to establish that an increase in the failure rate requires an increase in the number of repair crews. However, such an increase is not always advisable, since the costs of maintaining the crews begin to exceed the losses from the downtime of the wells. The problem has been solved by the simulation method to optimize the elimination of failures of tubing (breaks) in the fields of the studied oil and gas producing enterprises, the process of which includes operations associated with the formation, transformation and implementation of random events, variables and processes that cause random changes in the state of such a system.

show abstract

Section: The Task Of Mass Service For the Organization And Managementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Solving the Problem Of Optimizing The Repair Work Usinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of arranging of repair works at oil and gas enterprises through use of simulation modeling tools

Hobyr¹,

Babenko²,

Савко³

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the 2019 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System (MDSM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is proved that estimation and determination the level of their influence on the economic situation of the company is a complicated multifunctional process. Even more complicated are the risks of oil and gas companies effects [6], methodological approach to their evaluation is considered in [7,8]. However, now there is no common methodology for assessing the level of risks effects on the oil and gas companies activity and ensuring their sustainability.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It should be noted that using formulas (6) and (7) it is possible to record a short-term effect. However, economic systems in the upstream segment are insensitive to such short-term results.…”

Section: The Seventh Information Situationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Approach to Risk-Controlling in Oil and Gas Company Management

Fadyeyeva¹,

Gryniuk²,

Mandryk³

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the 2019 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System (MDSM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The article is devoted to the development and improvement of methodology and implementation of riskcontrolling subsystem in the management system of oil and gas companies in under uncertainty conditions. It is proved, that the mathematical tool of Fuzzy Logic allows to reveal and take into account complicated nonlinear dependences between quantitative and qualitative indicators of risk-event probability estimation, and also mutual effect of risk forming factors. The six-level system of evaluation of risks of operating activities of oil and gas companies, based on fuzzy logic has been established. It allows to take into account the non-linear nature of the relationship between the risk forming factors and the resulting indicator. The logical inference model has been designed. It shows the dependence of the risk level on the meaning of linguistic rules about groups of risk forming factors in different risk groups and which is the basis for the risk assessment model. The conceptual model of management of oil and gas companies with the risk-controlling subsystem as a part of it, the main element of which is the fuzzy model of risk assessment and forecasting, has been proposed. The research concluded, that the implementation of the proposed model of management of oil and gas production enterprises will significantly improve the efficiency of the upstream segment enterprises and significantly reduce losses, caused by the occurrence of risk-events.

show abstract