A questão da continuidade da política macroeconômica entre o governo Cardoso e Lula (1995-2006)

Novelli, José Marcos Nayme

doi:10.1590/s0104-44782010000200014

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…An additional explanation for the sharp rise in cropland prices in 2003 is associated with 2002's electoral process, in which Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the opposition candidate at the time, was elected. According to Novelli (2010), economic agents were fearful of potential alterations to the country's economic policy, a fact that led to the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions (the rise of Brazil's country-risk, inflation, currency devaluation, etc.). due to the increasing uncertainty and the pursuit of safer investments, i.e., investments whose l component is relatively larger, agents invested resources in the land market, causing prices to rise.…”

Section: Development Of Crop Pasture and Forest Land Prices In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

2016

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RESUMO: O presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar culturas, pastagens e os preços das terras florestais no Brasil, entre 1994 e 2010, à luz da teoria pós-keynesiana. Os resultados fornecem evidência de que a terra, mais do que apenas um simples fator de produção, deve ser concebido como um ativo econômico. Na verdade, o preço da terra rural é determinado não apenas pela rentabilidade esperada decorrente das atividades agrícolas, mas também pelas expectativas dos agentes quanto à sua futura valorização e liquidez em um ambiente econômico permeado de incertezas. Neste contexto, como um objeto de especulação, a terra tem sido particularmente importante como uma reserva de valor. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: preço da terra; pós-keynesiano; economia brasileira.ABSTRACT: The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.

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Section: Development Of Crop Pasture and Forest Land Prices In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

2016

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“…A divisão principal se dava entre aqueles que consideravam essa continuidade como produto da fraqueza ideológica do governo Lula, que tinha escolhido trocar de valores ao chegar ao poder (Cardim de Carvalho, 2003;Paulani, 2003), e aqueles que defendiam ser tal continuidade fruto de uma situação contingente de correlação de forças políticas, que impunha o abandono das propostas petistas de administração do Estado professadas antes das eleições (Barbosa e Souza, 2010;Morais e Saad-Filho, 2005;Novelli, 2010;Sallum Jr. e Kugelmas, 2004).…”

Section: As Críticas à Continuidade Das Políticas Neoliberaisunclassified

Da economia política à política econômica: o novo-desenvolvimentismo e o governo Lula

Morais

Saad‐Filho

2011

Rev. Econ. Polit.

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From political economy to economic policy: The neo-developmentalism and the Lula administration. This article critically reviews the design of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the first half of the last decade, and their relationship with the economic policies of the Lula administration after 2006. Paradoxically, the neo-developmentalist policies were implemented jointly with the main (neoliberal) macroeconomic policies which had been introduced earlier. The article reviews the relevant literature, and examines the contradictory nature of this 'inflection' of economic policy. So far, this combination of policies has achieved an unquestionable -though provisional -success, despite the persistence of the structural macroeconomic problems due to the continuity of the neoliberal policies.Keywords: Brazilian macroeconomics; new developmentalism; Lula administration.JEL Classification: B52; N16; O11; O54. INTROduçãONo início do primeiro governo Lula, economistas de diversas orientações teó-ricas fora do mainstream foram surpreendidos por suas políticas macroeconômicas, que mantiveram inalteradas aquelas introduzidas pelo governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)) após a crise do real, em 1999. Essas políticas eram baseadas no paradigma neoliberal e, tipicamente, inspiradas pela abordagem dos mercados * Câmara dos deputados, Brasília.

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“…In turn, inflation affects land prices, generally positively, as it reflects the risk of capital losses which can be avoided by investing in property. Political risk has similar consequences; an example is the situation in Brazil following the 2002 elections, when the danger arose of a worsening of economic results, leading to an increase in prices of agricultural land (Novelli, 2010).…”

Section: The Neoclassical Approach: Advantages and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers for farmland value revisited: adapting the returns discount model (RDM) to the sustainable paradigm

Czyżewski

Kułyk

Kryszak

2019

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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In recent studies many researchers have identified non-agricultural attributes of land that significantly contribute to its value. They claim that the increasing proportion of the value of land may now be explained by environmental amenities in rural areas. On the other hand, mainstream economics says that farmland values are determined by the discounted stream of returns (present value model). The main aim of this work was to adapt neoclassical concept of the Returns Discount Model (RDM) of Saphiro-Gordon type to the case of a land market in Poland. We introduced a modified RDM (i.e. the multilevel variance component model) to answer whether it remains applicable to the valuation of farmland in the context of sustainable agriculture. It was found that in spite of the growing role of non-productive functions of agriculture the improved RDM continues to perform well as a tool to assess changes in land prices.

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A questão da continuidade da política macroeconômica entre o governo Cardoso e Lula (1995-2006)

Cited by 14 publications

References 2 publications

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

Da economia política à política econômica: o novo-desenvolvimentismo e o governo Lula

Drivers for farmland value revisited: adapting the returns discount model (RDM) to the sustainable paradigm

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