From political economy to economic policy: The neo-developmentalism and the Lula administration. This article critically reviews the design of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the first half of the last decade, and their relationship with the economic policies of the Lula administration after 2006. Paradoxically, the neo-developmentalist policies were implemented jointly with the main (neoliberal) macroeconomic policies which had been introduced earlier. The article reviews the relevant literature, and examines the contradictory nature of this 'inflection' of economic policy. So far, this combination of policies has achieved an unquestionable -though provisional -success, despite the persistence of the structural macroeconomic problems due to the continuity of the neoliberal policies.Keywords: Brazilian macroeconomics; new developmentalism; Lula administration.JEL Classification: B52; N16; O11; O54.
INTROduçãONo início do primeiro governo Lula, economistas de diversas orientações teó-ricas fora do mainstream foram surpreendidos por suas políticas macroeconômicas, que mantiveram inalteradas aquelas introduzidas pelo governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)) após a crise do real, em 1999. Essas políticas eram baseadas no paradigma neoliberal e, tipicamente, inspiradas pela abordagem dos mercados * Câmara dos deputados, Brasília.
This article reviews the emergence of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the early 2000s, as a heterodox alternative to neoliberalism. These policies were implemented in the second Lula administration (2006–10), and continued under Dilma Rousseff. However, neo-developmentalism has not simply replaced neoliberalism; rather, these prima facie incompatible policy frameworks have been combined, and the ensuing policies have achieved significant successes despite the intrinsic fragilities and limitations of this hybrid structure. The article examines the achievements and limitations of these policies, and the (limited) scope for their continuation in Dilma’s Rousseff’s administration.
RESUMO Este artigo analisa o desempenho da economia brasileira durante os anos 90, à luz da mudança de política neomonetarista implementada de maneira desigual, mas incremental, ao longo desta década. O artigo mostra que essa mudança de política foi associada a, e contribuiu para, uma mudança na estrutura da indústria de transformação, a deterioração financeira do setor público, o aperto da restrição da balança de pagamentos e o aumento da dependência econômica externa. Essas mudanças estruturais foram em grande parte responsáveis pela crise cambial de 1999. As medidas políticas subsequentes falharam amplamente em lidar com essas fraquezas da economia brasileira.
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