Tendências climáticas e produção de uva na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe

Abstract

Resumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar tendências nas séries climáticas e nos índices agroclimáticos para o cultivo da videira na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe, em Santa Catarina. A região apresenta clima mesotérmico úmido. Foram utilizados dados de temperatura máxima e mínima do ar, do período de 1924 a 2010, e de precipitação pluvial, de 1955 a 2010. O teste de Mann-Kendall foi utilizado para avaliar a tendência nas séries, cuja magnitude foi estimada pela declividade mediana determinada pelo teste de Theil-Sen. Foi observada tendência de aumento nas séries de temperatura mínima do ar, em escala anual, bem como nas estações do ano. Quanto à temperatura máxima, somente houve tendência de aumento na série de verão. Em relação aos índices agrometeorológicos, foi observada tendência de diminuição do número de geadas, diminuição do período entre a brotação e a colheita, aumento da soma térmica e dos índices de Huglin e de frio. Foram evidenciadas tendências de aumento da precipitação pluvial total anual e da precipitação no período de crescimento da videira, bem como aumento do número de dias, com chuva igual ou superior a 20 mm, e aumento na temperatura mínima e noturna.Termos para indexação: aquecimento global, climatologia, índice de frio, mudanças climáticas, precipitação pluvial, soma térmica. Climate trends and production of grapes in the Region of Goethe Grape Valleys, BrazilAbstract -The objective of this work was to evaluate the trends in climate series and in agroclimatic indices for growing vines in the Region of Goethe Grape Valleys, in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The Region has a mesothermal humid climate. Maximum and minimum air temperatures, from the years 1924 to 2010, and rainfall data from 1955 to 2010 were used. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to evaluate the series trend, whose magnitude was estimated by the median slope determined by the Theil-Sen test. An increase trend was observed in the series of minimum air temperature, at the annual scale, as well as in the seasons of the year. For the maximum air temperature, there was a significant increase trend only in in the summer series. For the agrometeorological indices, a significant trend of decrease in the number of frost events was observed, reduction of the time between sprouting and harvesting, and increase trends in thermal summation and on the Huglin´s and cold indexes. Increase trends were evidenced for the annual total rainfall and for rainfall during the vine growth period, as well as for the number of days with rain equal to or higher than 20 mm, and for the minimum and night temperatures.

Climate trends in a non-traditional high quality wine producing region

“…These three temperaturebased indices were selected due to their previous use in studies that address the effect of regional climate conditions on the general wine style (Anderson et al, 2012;Back et al, 2012;2013;Tonietto and Carbonneau, 2004). Also, the use of these three temperature-based indices relies on the fact that the air temperature is one of the most important factors affecting the quality of vinegrapes production (Hall and Jones, 2010).…”

“…Initially proposed by Tonietto and Carbonneau (2004), the HI (Equation 2; Table 1) is largely used in viticulture studies (Anderson et al, 2012;Back 2012;2013;Orlandini et al, 2009). The HI and GDD equations are similar to each other (Anderson et al, 2012) but, the HI gives more emphasis to the effect of the Tmax on the crop development.…”

“…The Mann-Kendall test (MK; Kendall and Stuart, 1967;Mann, 1945) is a non-parametric test widely used to detect trends in meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological time series (Back et al, 2012;2013;Blain, 2013, among many other). Positive (negative) MK values indicate the presence of increasing (decreasing) trends.…”

“…The TSA is a robust non parametric estimate of the slope of the trend frequently used in (agro/hydro) metorological studies (Back et al, 2012;2013, among many others). All statistical tests were performed at the 5% significant level.…”

“…According to these authors, this increase on the air temperature patterns may put pressure over some grapevine producing regions of the World (Jones et al, 2005). Back et al (2012) assessed the significance of trends in meteorological series as well as in agrometeorological parameters obtained from grapevine producing region of Goethe Grape Valley, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. These authors detected significant warming trends in the minimum air temperature series and a significant shortening in the length of the period between pruning and harvest.…”