The article proposes the methodological tool and comprehensive indicator for assessing the food security of the regions. The index of food security is determined on the basis of the systematic groups of indicators. In the distribution of food products, the following indicators are analyzed: the indexes of food prices, the magnitude of the change in real incomes of the population, the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum. Among the indicators in the distribution of food products the volume of food consumption in accordance with rational consumption rates, the share of food expenditure in the structure of household consumption expenditures are considered. In the field of production the indexes of production of various types of agricultural products in the region are considered. The ranking of the Southern Federal District (SFD) regions by selected groups of indicators made it possible to determine the leaders in food security among the regions. In 2017, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Adygea and Rostov Region were among these regions. On the basis of the analysis performed, the authors established risks and threats in food supply of the SFD regions: imbalance of the consumer ration; decrease in real incomes and purchasing power of population; a high proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum in the region. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in the possibility of justifying the choice of priority measures to optimize agrarian policy, taking into account the need to maintain an acceptable level of food provision in the regions of Russia.
The article discusses methodological approaches to the problem of assessing the level of food security based on cognitive mathematical modeling. The feasibility of integrated accounting in the context of import substitution primarily of the production and consumption of agricultural products by the population, as well as the volume of their imports and stocks, taking into account rational consumption standards, is substantiated. It is shown that the solution to the problem of ensuring food security is possible using economic and mathematical modeling based on fuzzy production cognitive maps. It is also necessary to develop and improve methods for the intellectual analysis of relevant statistical data to predict the integral level of food security.
The article assesses the food security of the Volgograd region in 2016. For this, the author's methodology for calculating food security at the regional level is used based on the integral index -the food security index of the region. The following parameters are analyzed: the level of food independence (self-sufficiency) of the region, the degree of satisfaction of the physiological needs of the population in basic food products and the level of economic accessibility of food. It was found that in 2016 the food security of the region under study was at an acceptable level. The deviation of the food safety index of the region from the optimal value was due to insufficient volumes of production of such important food products as milk and meat, a significant degree of differentiation of the population's incomes and a high proportion of food expenditures in the structure of household consumption expenditures.
Анализ продовольственной безопасности, как правило, проводится на уровне государства, в соответствии с показателями и рекомендациями, установленными в Доктрине продовольственной безопасности Российской Федерации. Однако формируется продовольственная безопасность прежде всего на региональном уровне, что позволяет обеспечить в масштабах страны национальную продовольственную безопасность. Для оценки продовольственной безопасности экономики региона на сегодняшний день не существует достаточно разработанной комплексной методики, что и определяет актуальность проводимого исследования.Статья посвящена обоснованию авторской методики анализа продовольственной безопасности на региональном уровне экономики и ее апробации на примере Южного Федерального округа (ЮФО). Цель автора заключалась в разработке комплексной универсальной методики анализа региональной продовольственной безопасности. Для достижения поставленной цели потребовалось: разработать систему показателей оценки продовольственной безопасности; определить критерии оценки; синтезировать модель анализа и оценки продовольственной безопасности региона. В статье представлен алгоритм поэтапного применения методики оценки региональной продовольственной безопасности.Разработана модель, основанная на универсальной методике оценки продовольственной безопасности на региональном уровне экономики, отличительными особенностями которой от существующих является ее комплексность и универсальность, позволяющая проводить сравнительный анализ уровня продовольственной безопасности по регионам страны и предлагать корректирующие меры в рамках агропродовольственной политики с учетом требований ВТО. Теоретическая значимость заключается в содержательном дополнении исследований моделей и инструментов анализа продовольственной безопасности на региональном уровне экономики с точки зрения обоснования показателей и критериев оценки продовольственной безопасности региона в условиях участия России в ВТО. Практическая значимость состоит в разработке и апробации предложенной методики на основе оценки показателей продовольственной безопасности ЮФО.Работа выполнена при финансовой поддержке РГНФ и Администрации Волгоградской области, проект № 15–12–34006 «Оценка эффективности агропродовольственной политики на региональном уровне».
The food security of the state must be sustainable. This actualizes the problem of assessing food security and its sustainability. To assess the sustainability of food security, a methodology based on a dynamic, multivariate assessment model is recommended. The proposed model allows considering the influence of systematized factors that form food security in production (P), distribution (D), consumption (C), and import substitution of food products (I). A comprehensive indicator for assessing the sustainability of food security has been developed - the food security sustainability index (Ifs), which sets a functional relationship between the influence of the analyzed factors and the achieved level of food security. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the development of a new original methodology and methodological toolkit to assess the provision of the population with food and the sustainability of food security.
The article assesses the food security of the Volgograd Region in 2015. For this, the author's methodology for calculating food security at the regional level is applied. It analyzes the following parameters: the level of food selfsufficiency, the degree of satisfaction of the physiological needs of the population and the degree of economic access to food.
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