The article proposes the methodological tool and comprehensive indicator for assessing the food security of the regions. The index of food security is determined on the basis of the systematic groups of indicators. In the distribution of food products, the following indicators are analyzed: the indexes of food prices, the magnitude of the change in real incomes of the population, the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum. Among the indicators in the distribution of food products the volume of food consumption in accordance with rational consumption rates, the share of food expenditure in the structure of household consumption expenditures are considered. In the field of production the indexes of production of various types of agricultural products in the region are considered. The ranking of the Southern Federal District (SFD) regions by selected groups of indicators made it possible to determine the leaders in food security among the regions. In 2017, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Adygea and Rostov Region were among these regions. On the basis of the analysis performed, the authors established risks and threats in food supply of the SFD regions: imbalance of the consumer ration; decrease in real incomes and purchasing power of population; a high proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum in the region. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in the possibility of justifying the choice of priority measures to optimize agrarian policy, taking into account the need to maintain an acceptable level of food provision in the regions of Russia.
The article discusses methodological approaches to the problem of assessing the level of food security based on cognitive mathematical modeling. The feasibility of integrated accounting in the context of import substitution primarily of the production and consumption of agricultural products by the population, as well as the volume of their imports and stocks, taking into account rational consumption standards, is substantiated. It is shown that the solution to the problem of ensuring food security is possible using economic and mathematical modeling based on fuzzy production cognitive maps. It is also necessary to develop and improve methods for the intellectual analysis of relevant statistical data to predict the integral level of food security.
The article assesses the food security of the Volgograd region in 2016. For this, the author's methodology for calculating food security at the regional level is used based on the integral index -the food security index of the region. The following parameters are analyzed: the level of food independence (self-sufficiency) of the region, the degree of satisfaction of the physiological needs of the population in basic food products and the level of economic accessibility of food. It was found that in 2016 the food security of the region under study was at an acceptable level. The deviation of the food safety index of the region from the optimal value was due to insufficient volumes of production of such important food products as milk and meat, a significant degree of differentiation of the population's incomes and a high proportion of food expenditures in the structure of household consumption expenditures.
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