Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO 2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations.It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution.

Psychological stress is an important factor for the development of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). More and more clinical and experimental evidence showed that IBS is a combination of irritable bowel and irritable brain. In the present review we discuss the potential role of psychological stress in the pathogenesis of IBS and provide comprehensive approaches in clinical treatment. Evidence from clinical and experimental studies showed that psychological stresses have marked impact on intestinal sensitivity, motility, secretion and permeability, and the underlying mechanism has a close correlation with mucosal immune activation, alterations in central nervous system, peripheral neurons and gastrointestinal microbiota. Stress-induced alterations in neuro-endocrine-immune pathways acts on the gut-brain axis and microbiota-gut-brain axis, and cause symptom flare-ups or exaggeration in IBS. IBS is a stress-sensitive disorder, therefore, the treatment of IBS should focus on managing stress and stress-induced responses. Now, non-pharmacological approaches and pharmacological strategies that target on stress-related alterations, such as antidepressants, antipsychotics, miscellaneous agents, 5-HT synthesis inhibitors, selective 5-HT reuptake inhibitors, and specific 5-HT receptor antagonists or agonists have shown a critical role in IBS management. A integrative approach for IBS management is a necessary.

Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO 2 emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO 2 concentration will not exceed 610 ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6 o C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's 2 climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic.

Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and technological innovation using a dynamic panel data model and regional-level data from China for the period 1995-2012. In contrast to previous studies, it examines the short and long-run bilateral relationship between technological innovation and energy consumption. The results show that in the short run, technological innovation leads to an increase in energy consumption, while energy consumption has no significant effect on technological innovation. In the long run, however, energy consumption is positively and bilaterally related to technological innovation. These findings suggest that although technological innovation does not directly lead to a reduction in energy consumption as mentioned in the extant literature, it could help achieve sustainability through improving energy efficiency and developing energy structure for developing countries.

This is an accepted version of a paper published in Energy Policy. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the published paper: Tang, X., Snowden, S., Höök, M. (2013) "Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK" Energy Policy, Access to the published version may require subscription. Abstract:Interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown. As a developed nation, the UK's economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer. Although the UK's energy consumption appears to have peaked, it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports. The UK has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the UK became a net energy importer in 2005. In this paper an input-output model is established to examine the impact of embodied energy from trade on the UK energy imports. The UK's embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997. UK embodied energy imports through the so-called 'Made in China' phenomena are the largest accounting for 43% of total net fossil energy imports. If net embodied fossil energy imports are considered, the gap between energy consumption and production in UK is much larger than commonly perceived, with subsequent implications to the UK's energy security.

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