Nickel is a strategic mineral resource, with 65% of nickel being used in stainless steel. The situation in Ukraine starting in February 2022 has led to significant fluctuations in nickel prices, with prices of nickel products along the same chain affecting and passing through each other. Using systematic risk entropy and granger causality networks, we measure the volatility risk of trade prices of nickel products using the nickel industry chain trade data from 2000–2019 and explore the transmission patterns of different volatility risk prices from the industry chain perspective. The findings show that: (1) Nickel ore has the highest risk of import trade price volatility and a strong influence, but low risk transmission. Stainless steel has the highest trade price impact but is also subject to the strongest passive influence. (2) The Americas have a higher risk of trade price volatility but a weaker influence. The influence and sensitivity of trade prices is stronger in Asia and Europe. (3) Indonesia’s stainless steel export prices have a high rate of transmission and strong influence. Germany’s ferronickel export prices are highly susceptible to external influences and can continue to spread loudly. Russian nickel ore export prices are able to quickly spread their impact to other regions.
Cross-regional air pollutant spillovers aggravate air pollution in China. To mitigate air pollution, identifying and monitoring air pollution spreaders (APS) is a vital strategy that helps locate the source of air pollution and guides the Joint Prevention and Control of Air Pollution. In this paper, we define an APS as a city with a high spillover impact (CHSI) of air pollution and propose a transfer entropy network to investigate the APS from a multi-timescale analysis perspective. Taking the time series of PM2.5 concentration of 358 Chinese cities from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020 as the sample, they are decomposed into short, medium, and long timescales, corresponding to an average period of 12, 111, and 530 days, respectively. Then, we use transfer entropy networks to analyze APS’s spatial distribution and temporal variation patterns on each timescale. The results demonstrate that air pollution spillover widely exists in Chinese cities, and the short-term air pollution spillover dominates all spillovers. The CHSIs form large agglomeration areas in Central and East China on short and medium timescales, while the results of the undecomposed data show a more discrete distribution. In addition, the cities’ air pollution spillover impact is usually high in winter and spring and low in summer. Moreover, the spillover impacts of half of the cities have a lead-lag relationship between short and medium timescales. All results suggest that combining short-term controls and longer-term strategies helps China mitigate air pollution and develop sustainably.
In the context of the economic situation, international relations, and the consequences of COVID-19, the future competition pattern of crude oil trade is uncertain. In this paper, the crude oil international import competition and export competition networks are based on a complex network model. The link prediction method is used to construct a crude oil competition relationship prediction model. We summarize the evolving characteristics of the competitive landscape of the global crude oil trade from 2000 to 2019 and explore the reasons for the changes. Finally, we forecast the future potential crude oil import and export competition. The results indicate the following. (1) The crude oil import competition center is transferred from Europe and America to the Asia–Pacific region and it may continue to shift to developing regions. (2) At present, the competition among traditional crude oil exporters is the core of crude oil export competition, such as OPEC, Canada, and Russia. The United States has become the world’s largest crude oil exporter, which means that the core of crude oil export competition has begun to shift to emerging countries. The competition intensity of emerging crude oil exporters is gradually increasing. There is likely to be fierce export competition between traditional and emerging exporters. (3) In the future crude oil competition, we should pay attention to the trend of the United States, which may lead to the restructuring of the global oil trade pattern. Finally, this paper considers the exporters and importers and puts forward policy suggestions for policymakers to deal with the future global crude oil trade competition.
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