The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links

Zhou, Xuanru; Zhang, Hua; Zheng, Shuxian; Xing, Wanli; Pei, Zhao; Li, Haiying

doi:10.3390/en15072395

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Guan (2016) took the number of trading partners of countries in the international crude oil unweighted nondirectional trade network in 2014 as the basis for predicting the potential international crude oil trade relationship and divided the relevant countries into different trade roles according to the crude oil import, export, and proven reserves, making the prediction more practical [24]. Zhou (2022) predicted the crude oil competition relationship on the basis of the global crude oil import and export competition network and link prediction method, combined with the analysis of geopolitical, economic, and social emergencies [25]. constructed an undirected weighted network of international trade of lithium carbonate by using complex network method and explored the potential cooperation relationship of lithium carbonate resources between small exporting countries and importing countries using the link prediction method based on local information proximity [26].…”

Section: Studies On International Trade Prediction and Its Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some scholars proposed that the traditional link prediction algorithm does not fully consider the influence of nodes in the network [31,32]. Zhou (2022) proposed a community adaptive network based on node centrality to measure the different contributions of nodes and their neighbors in the network, effectively utilizing the community structure in the network [33]. Hajarathaiah (2022) proposed the nearest neighbor trust ranking index based on the structural attributes of neighbor nodes to evaluate the importance of each node [34].…”

Section: Studies On International Trade Prediction and Its Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Jin¹,

Liu²

2022

Sustainability

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Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis.

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Section: Studies On International Trade Prediction and Its Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Studies On International Trade Prediction and Its Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Jin¹,

Liu²

2022

Sustainability

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“…In Zhou et al, 2022 [1], analyzed the trade competition networks and potential competing links and showed how the import competition is shifted away from Europe and America to Asia-Pacific region, mostly between the two large nations India and China. Also their work showed how the rise of new exporting nations have affected the export market and OPEC's control over the global oil prices.…”

Section: A Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Complex Network Analysis of the OPEC Crude Oil Trade Network

Roy,

2024

Preprint

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Quantification and analysis of global oil trade networks reveals deep insights into a nation's development and influence at a global scale. Further, it allows us to predict future trends and changes to adapt state policy as the crude oil market influences the balance of power among the developed and emerging economies alike as it is central for energy needs as well for industrial progress. In this paper we analyzed the crude oil export data from 2016 to 2022 from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) using complex networks in order to quantify and create a comparison metric between the exporting and importing nations to identify changes in the trade network. Our analysis revealed that that subsequent to the COVID-19 pandemic, even after sizable economic recovery, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unable to maintain pre-pandemic levels of trade due to multiple factors such as the rise of the USA as the leading oil exporter [14] [15], global financial sanctions on Russian federation resulting in influx of discounted oil in the markets [16], shift of world towards renewable energy [17] etc.As entering 2022 with the recovery of global oil trade the increase was 8.09% as compared to the loss of 12.35% on the onset of 2020. Our study also opens up possible research work in this direction about other major non-OPEC oil exporters and quantify how their control is increasing over the market.

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“…Zhang et al (30) developed an undirected weighted network for the international trade of lithium carbonate, and explored the potential cooperative relationship between small exporters and importers of lithium carbonate resources using the link prediction method based on local information proximity. Zhou et al (31) predicted the crude oil competition relationship using the global crude oil import and export competition network and link prediction method. Filimonova et al (32) established a directed network for international LNG trade in 2019, and used the link prediction method to find potential trade routes and provide decision support for countries and their governments.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Link Prediction Method for Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network Using Composite Index

Zhu,

Yang,

Jin

et al. 2023

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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The container shipping network has evolved with the development of trade, but the mechanism of its evolution is still not well studied. Link prediction model is one of the main methods used to study the network evolution. The classic indicators of the link prediction model only consider the structural characteristics of the network, but there are also real factors that can influence the evolution of the network. Therefore, this paper considers the structural characteristics of the network as an endogenous index, which includes common neighbors, Adamic–Adar, resource allocation, and so forth. Considering the factors that may affect the link between the ports, such as sailing distance, operation, economy, and political factors, this paper first develops different attractiveness models and determines an optimal attractiveness model in case analysis. After that, this paper proposes a composite index that combines endogenous and attractiveness indices. Taking the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) shipping network as an example, an optimal attractiveness index and then an optimal composite index are determined. It was found that the prediction accuracy under the composite index is improved compared with single indices, which confirms the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed index. Finally, from the perspective of the overall network, this paper discusses the possible future routes of the shipping network with the aim of providing a reference for the improvement of connectivity of the shipping network and planning new routes for shipping companies.

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The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links

Cited by 9 publications

References 44 publications

Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

A Complex Network Analysis of the OPEC Crude Oil Trade Network

Improved Link Prediction Method for Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network Using Composite Index

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