This paper aims to make a proposal to govern the Peruvian State under the umbrella of management cybernetics, following the paths of the viable system model (VSM), proposed by Prof. Stafford Beer, enriched with other soft and hard systemic methodologies and technologies, to cover the soft and hard issues that are part of the complex Peruvian reality at different levels of recursion. For doing this, four defined perspectives were adopted to understand the complexity of Peru: the sectoral view, the regions view, the river basins view and the macroregions view. Peru is seen as a system in focus, defining, for each of these four perspectives, the five systems that VSM has. The application of the VSM in each perspective serves to apply it in two modes: diagnosis and design, according to the respective perspective. Then an integrative analysis and reflection is done considering the four perspectives, to analyze the viability of the VSM approach in the governance of the Peruvian State to establish some conclusions and recommendations in relation to the proposal, appearing at the end of the paper.
Este artículo surge del análisis de la problemática del abastecimiento de GLP en el Perú, a partir de diversos factores con un impacto significativo en su cadena de valor. Por la complejidad del análisis se hace necesario utilizar diferentes técnicas y metodologías, tal como la dinámica de sistemas empleada en este estudio, que, mediante un modelo propuesto, genera diversas hipótesis para explicar los patrones de comportamiento de la variable investigada y entender la lógica causal en el tiempo cuando interactúa con otras variables. Como resultado, se propone un modelo que genera posibles escenarios que ratifican la disminución de la producción de GLP en el tiempo ante la inacción respecto a la producción de gas natural y sugiere la necesidad de incentivar inversiones en exploración para el aumento de las reservas de gas natural. La investigación concluye que es necesario establecer políticas públicas para lograr las condiciones de mercado que aseguren el suministro de GLP.
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