Este artículo surge del análisis de la problemática del abastecimiento de GLP en el Perú, a partir de diversos factores con un impacto significativo en su cadena de valor. Por la complejidad del análisis se hace necesario utilizar diferentes técnicas y metodologías, tal como la dinámica de sistemas empleada en este estudio, que, mediante un modelo propuesto, genera diversas hipótesis para explicar los patrones de comportamiento de la variable investigada y entender la lógica causal en el tiempo cuando interactúa con otras variables. Como resultado, se propone un modelo que genera posibles escenarios que ratifican la disminución de la producción de GLP en el tiempo ante la inacción respecto a la producción de gas natural y sugiere la necesidad de incentivar inversiones en exploración para el aumento de las reservas de gas natural. La investigación concluye que es necesario establecer políticas públicas para lograr las condiciones de mercado que aseguren el suministro de GLP.
Thisarticle contributessearchingfor a sustainable solution tothe supply of LPG. A little research has been done in Peru regarding the supply of LPG; it is focusedon the analysis of the energy matrix,LPG distribution for vehicles, Government pricing policy orsupply sources. The lack of studies that carry out an analysis of the causes or the interrelation between different factors can affect the normal supply of this fuel. An analysis of the problematic situation following the soft system dynamics methodology allows an adequate definition of the problem and events generating of risks that are presented in the LPG Supply. As a result of its application, defining the unstructured problematic situation has included the situation description where events and circumstances are observed without having any kind of structure, arising as the occurrence of the LPG shortage without having a clearidea of the real factors that cause it. On the other hand, defining the structured problematic situation has involved concatenating all the elements that integrate the situation describing and analyzing the whole system, considering historical records of past situations and collecting needs, aspirations and expectations of the different stakeholders, contributing to form an image of the situation that shows the structure, processes, relevant events and interrelations between all the elements involved.Thus, it is observed how the variables in the phases of the value chain of the LPG are related and interact affecting their supply.
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