Systemic methodology for risks evaluation and management in the energy and mining sectors (SYSMEREM-EMS) using bayesian networks

Rodriguez-Ulloa, Ricardo

doi:10.1080/12460125.2018.1468157

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“… In System 4, systemic methodologies like system dynamics (SD) (Sterman and Sterman 2000 ; Forrester 1961 ; Lyneis 1988 ) soft system dynamics methodology (SSDM) (Rodriguez-Ulloa et al 2011 ), agent based modeling (ABM) (Wilensky 2011 ), and dynamic balanced scorecards ( DBSC ) (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2010 ) can be embedded within VSM. In System 3, soft systems methodology (SSM) (Checkland 1981 ; Wilson and van Haperen 2015 ), soft-business process management (Soft-BPM) (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2020 , 2021 ), systemic methodology for risk evaluation and management ( SYSMEREM ), (Rodriguez-Ulloa, 2018 ), robotic process automation (Tripathi 2018 ), and intelligent chatbots (Sabharwal 2020 ) can be applied. In System 2, multicriteria and multiattribute analysis with the support of expert systems (Bohanec and Rodriguez-Ulloa 2014 ) can be applied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In System 3, soft systems methodology (SSM) (Checkland 1981 ; Wilson and van Haperen 2015 ), soft-business process management (Soft-BPM) (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2020 , 2021 ), systemic methodology for risk evaluation and management ( SYSMEREM ), (Rodriguez-Ulloa, 2018 ), robotic process automation (Tripathi 2018 ), and intelligent chatbots (Sabharwal 2020 ) can be applied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since more than two decades, IAS belongs to the International Federation for Systems Research (IFSR) . 3 Diverse systemic methodologies have been created at IAS, among them the following can be mentioned: soft system dynamics methodology—SSDM (Rodriguez-Ulloa 1995 , 2002 ; Rodriguez-Ulloa and Paucar Caceres 2005 ; Rodriguez-Ulloa et al 2011 , 2021 ); systemic methodology for dynamic balanced scorecards—DM (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2010 ); systemic methodology for risk evaluation and management—SYSMEREM (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2018 ), soft-business process management methodology—Soft-BPM (Rodriguez-Ulloa 2020 , 2021 ).…”

Section: A Brief History Of the System Thinking And Cybernetics Intro...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cybernetic governance of the Peruvian State: a proposal

Rodriguez-Ulloa

2022

AI & Soc

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This paper aims to make a proposal to govern the Peruvian State under the umbrella of management cybernetics, following the paths of the viable system model (VSM), proposed by Prof. Stafford Beer, enriched with other soft and hard systemic methodologies and technologies, to cover the soft and hard issues that are part of the complex Peruvian reality at different levels of recursion. For doing this, four defined perspectives were adopted to understand the complexity of Peru: the sectoral view, the regions view, the river basins view and the macroregions view. Peru is seen as a system in focus, defining, for each of these four perspectives, the five systems that VSM has. The application of the VSM in each perspective serves to apply it in two modes: diagnosis and design, according to the respective perspective. Then an integrative analysis and reflection is done considering the four perspectives, to analyze the viability of the VSM approach in the governance of the Peruvian State to establish some conclusions and recommendations in relation to the proposal, appearing at the end of the paper.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Brief History Of the System Thinking And Cybernetics Intro...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cybernetic governance of the Peruvian State: a proposal

Rodriguez-Ulloa

2022

AI & Soc

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“…The methods for risk monitoring and early warning research focus on various algorithmic models such as indicator systems [25][26][27], neural networks [28,29], Bayesian networks [30][31][32], support vector machines [33], and evidence theory [34][35][36]. However, outbreaks are often sudden, and the source of risk is affected by many uncertain factors.…”

Section: Methods For Risk Monitoring and Early Warningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring and Early Warning of SMEs’ Shutdown Risk under the Impact of Global Pandemic Shock

Xie

Jin

Wei

et al. 2023

Systems

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The COVID-19 outbreak devastated business operations and the world economy, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). With limited capital, poorer risk tolerance, and difficulty in withstanding prolonged crises, SMEs are more vulnerable to pandemics and face a higher risk of shutdown. This research sought to establish a model response to shutdown risk by investigating two questions: How do you measure SMEs’ shutdown risk due to pandemics? How do SMEs reduce shutdown risk? To the best of our knowledge, existing studies only analyzed the impact of the pandemic on SMEs through statistical surveys and trivial recommendations. Particularly, there is no case study focusing on an elaboration of SMEs’ shutdown risk. We developed a model to reduce cognitive uncertainty and differences in opinion among experts on COVID-19. The model was built by integrating the improved Dempster’s rule of combination and a Bayesian network, where the former is based on the method of weight assignment and matrix analysis. The model was first applied to a representative SME with basic characteristics for survival analysis during the pandemic. The results show that this SME has a probability of 79% on a lower risk of shutdown, 15% on a medium risk of shutdown, and 6% of high risk of shutdown. SMEs solving the capital chain problem and changing external conditions such as market demand are more difficult during a pandemic. Based on the counterfactual elaboration of the inferred results, the probability of occurrence of each risk factor was obtained by simulating the interventions. The most likely causal chain analysis based on counterfactual elaboration revealed that it is simpler to solve employee health problems. For the SMEs in the study, this approach can reduce the probability of being at high risk of shutdown by 16%. The results of the model are consistent with those identified by the SME respondents, which validates the model.

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Problem Structuring Methods: A Review of Advances Over the Last Decade

Júnior

Schramm

2021

Syst Pract Action Res

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Systemic methodology for risks evaluation and management in the energy and mining sectors (SYSMEREM-EMS) using bayesian networks

Cited by 7 publications

References 4 publications

Cybernetic governance of the Peruvian State: a proposal

Cybernetic governance of the Peruvian State: a proposal

Monitoring and Early Warning of SMEs’ Shutdown Risk under the Impact of Global Pandemic Shock

Problem Structuring Methods: A Review of Advances Over the Last Decade

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