The boreal and boreo-nemoral forests in Europe, which occur in northern and northeastern Europe, are dominated by 2 coniferous species, Norway spruce Picea abies (L.) Karst. being economically the most important one. Forestry is of major economic importance in this region. Forestry planning and climate change scenarios are based on similar (long-term) timescales, i.e. between 70 and 120 yr. Within the EU project 'Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes' (MICE), we have used 'present day ' runs (1961-1990) and future scenarios (2070-2100, emission scenarios A2 and B2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES]) of the HadRM3 regional climate model to study and model direct and indirect effects of changing climate on Norway spruce in Sweden and northern Europe. According to our results, extreme climate events like spring temperature backlashes and summer drought will increase in frequency and duration. In combination with a raised mean temperature, climate extremes will negatively precondition trees (i.e. increase their susceptibility) to secondary damage through pests and pathogens. Decreased forest vitality also makes stands more susceptible to windthrow. Storm damage is discussed based on a 100 yr storm damage record for Sweden. Marginally increased frequencies and windspeeds of storms may cause disproportionate increases in windthrow. Increased economic hazards can be expected from a combination of the increased volumes of wind-thrown timber, and a greater likelihood of additional generations of spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (further encouraged by the increase in fallen timber), as a result of a changing climate with warmer summers.

Translating policies about sustainable development as a social process and sustainability outcomes into the real world of social–ecological systems involves several challenges. Hence, research policies advocate improved innovative problem-solving capacity. One approach is transdisciplinary research that integrates research disciplines, as well as researchers and practitioners. Drawing upon 14 experiences of problem-solving, we used group modeling to map perceived barriers and bridges for researchers’ and practitioners’ joint knowledge production and learning towards transdisciplinary research. The analysis indicated that the transdisciplinary research process is influenced by (1) the amount of traditional disciplinary formal and informal control, (2) adaptation of project applications to fill the transdisciplinary research agenda, (3) stakeholder participation, and (4) functional team building/development based on self-reflection and experienced leadership. Focusing on implementation of green infrastructure policy as a common denominator for the delivery of ecosystem services and human well-being, we discuss how to diagnose social–ecological systems, and use knowledge production and collaborative learning as treatments.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0372-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities undertaken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled "Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes" (MICE) -a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes -the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions).

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