Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

A transition management framework to stimulate a circular phosphorus system

“…Both modern industrialized and developing societies are confronted with such complex and unstructured problems (e.g., healthcare, climate change, agriculture, energy, mobility) for which long-term solution strategies need to be developed at the societal level (Loorbach, 2010). Given the possibility of multiple equilibria, the focus of complexity literature has been to show how technological biases, institutional barriers, and path dependencies may lock a system into a suboptimal or undesired equilibrium, similar to what has been exhibited in the current P management system (Weber & Rohracher, 2012;Hoppe et al, 2016;Sarvajayakesavalu et al, 2018;El Bilali, 2020;Nedelciu et al, 2020).…”

“…Yet attempts to address these P scarcity and food insecurity challenges over the last decade have remained fragmented and disconnected from contemporaneous incidents of eutrophication due to inefficient use of P on soils, which increasingly threaten our aquatic ecosystems and public health (Brooks et al, 2016;Hoppe et al, 2016;Pick, 2016;Shen et al, 2019). To address this societal problem, we need sustainable solutions to improving P use efficiency along the whole food chain, and specifically within agricultural systems since farming is the main driver of the global P cycle (Nedelciu et al, 2020;Nesme & Withers, 2016;Sarvajayakesavalu et al, 2018).…”

“…As our experience with the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed, we must take heed of early warning signs-as these call for rapid coordinated action across sectors-before critical thresholds are crossed. These disruptive hazards cause P-deficient regions to be more vulnerable when the global or regional food trade is interrupted, which can be catastrophic for regions already impacted by food insecurity (Laborde et al, 2020;Nedelciu et al, 2020;WFP, 2020). Our paper is motivated by the urgent imperative for P sustainability through the transformation of the current-mostly linear P system-to a more circular system, where there is greater coordination among the actors and where P is recycled and maintained within regional systems for beneficial reuse.…”

Synergy between a shallow root system with a DRO1 homologue and localized P application improves P uptake of lowland rice

“…Large amounts of mineral P fertilizer have been continuously applied to overcome low P-use efficiency and achieve high grain yields. Given the finite nature of the P fertilizer resource and increasing ecological concerns about the excess use of P in agricultural systems 2 – 4 , it is vital to investigate sustainable crop production strategies that facilitate the efficient utilization of applied and available P in soils. Such strategies are also critical for the food security of resource-poor farmers with low fertilizer inputs in developing countries 5 .…”

Synergy Between a Shallow Root System With a DRO1 Homologue and Localized P Application Improves Rice P Uptake 

“…Large amounts of mineral P fertilizer have been continuously applied to overcome low P-use e ciency and achieve high grain yields. Given the nite nature of the P fertilizer resource and increasing ecological concerns about the excess use of P in agricultural systems 2,3,4 , it is vital to investigate sustainable crop production strategies that facilitate the e cient utilization of applied and available P in soils. Such strategies are also critical for the food security of resource-poor farmers with low fertilizer inputs in developing countries 5 .…”