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We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand to biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway.Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multi-structured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

We document an increase in oak and hickory advance regeneration, depending on landscape position, in the sixth year following mechanical thinning and repeated prescribed fires in southern Ohio, USA. Oak-dominated communities provide a multitude of human and natural resource values throughout the eastern United States, but their long-term sustainability is threatened throughout the region by poor regeneration. This study was established to assess regeneration following midstory thinning (late 2000) and prescribed fire application (2001 and 2005) at two sites in southern Ohio. Each of the four 20+ ha treatment units (two thin and burn, two untreated controls) were modeled for long-term moisture regime using the integrated moisture index (IMI), and a 50 m grid of sampling points was established throughout the units. Vegetation and canopy openness were sampled at each gridpoint before and after treatments, in 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006. The thin and burn treatment generally resulted in more advance regeneration (>50 cm height) of oak and hickory. The second fires in 2005 created additional landscape heterogeneity by causing variable tree mortality, and thus canopy openness, across the IMI gradient. The drier landscape positions generally had more intense fires, more canopy openness, and more oak and hickory advance regeneration; several other tree species also exhibited marked landscape variation in regeneration after treatments. Though advance regeneration of several competing species became abundant after the initial treatments, the second fires reduced the high densities of the two major competitors, Acer rubrum and Liriodendron tulipifera. Two simple models were developed: (1) a model of oak ''competitiveness'' based on the plot data related to advance regeneration of oaks and competitors and (2) a model estimating the probability of a plot becoming 'competitive for oak' based on canopy openness, IMI class, and number of oak and hickory seedlings present. For dry or intermediate sites with at least 5000 oak and hickory seedlings/ha, opening the canopy to 8.5-19% followed by at least two fires should promote oak and hickory to be 'competitive' over about 50% of the area. However, no appreciable oak and hickory regeneration developed on mesic sites. Overall, these results suggest promise for partial harvesting and repeated fires as a management strategy to reverse the accelerating loss of oak dominance in the central hardwoods region. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Cover PhotoMontane ecosystems, as seen from Mount Jefferson on the White Mountain National Forest. These ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Photo by Toni Lyn Morelli, U.S. Geological Survey.

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