The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21 st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region's urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species.We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urb...
Stopover habitat relationships of landbirds are not well known and this constitutes a shortcoming in conservation plans for migratory birds. We compared migrant use of mature upland and riparian forests during spring in an urbanizing landscape within central Ohio. We surveyed stopover migrants along 250-m transects, and quantified both local- and landscape-level habitat characteristics (percent urban and forest land). During spring stopover, migrant abundance was 86% and 118% higher in upland forests for Nearctic-Neotropical transient (long-distance migrants) and temperate transients (short-distance migrants), respectively. Of 27 transient species, 22 species differed in their use of riparian and upland forests, and 20 of those were most abundant in upland forest (e.g., Blue-headed Vireo [Vireo solitarius], Least Flycatcher [Empidonax minimus], Swainson's Thrush [Catharus ustulatus], Nashville Warbler [Vermivora ruficapilla], Magnolia Warbler [Dendroica magnolia], Bay-breasted Warbler [D. castanea], and Ovenbird [Seiurus aurocapillus]). Species richness was 58% and 75% higher in upland forests relative to riparian forests for Neotropical transient and temperate transient groups, respectively. Percent urbanization within 1 km was unrelated to abundance of Neotropical transients and temperate transients. Abundance of Neotropical transients and temperate transients was unrelated to percent forest cover within 1 km. Mature upland and riparian forests differed in that riparian sites had lower percentage of shrub cover, higher percentage of canopy cover, and different species composition of trees. Abundance of Neotropical transients was positively associated with mean canopy height; temperate transients were positively associated with mean number of trees >38 cm DBH and mean percentage of shrub cover. Our data indicate that mature upland forests were more heavily used by migrating landbirds than riparian forests within an urbanizing Midwestern landscape and may represent valuable habitats for the conservation of migratory landbirds within highly fragmented landscapes. Uso de Bosques Riparios y de Llanuras por Aves Terrestres como Hábitats de Paradas Migratorias en un Paisaje Urbano Resumen. Las relaciones de los hábitats que sirven como paradas migratorias para las aves terrestres no están bien conocidas, y esto constituye una deficiencia en los planes de conservación de las aves migratorias. Comparamos el uso de bosques maduros de llanuras y de bosques riparios por parte de aves migratorias durante la primavera en un paisaje que está siendo urbanizado en Ohio central. Registramos aves migratorias en las paradas de migración a lo largo de transectos de 250 m y cuantificamos las características del hábitat tanto a nivel local como a nivel del paisaje (porcentaje de cobertura urbana y de bosque). Durante la parada migratoria de primavera, la abundancia de las aves migratorias en bosques de llanura fue un 86% mayor para las aves transitorias del Neártico-Neotrópico (aves migratorias de larga distancia) y un 118% mayor para las aves transitorias templadas (aves migratorias de corta distancia). De 27 especies transitorias, 22 especies se diferenciaron en su uso de bosque ripario y de llanura, y 20 de éstas fueron más abundantes en bosques de llanura (e.g., Vireo solitarius, Empidonax minimus, Catharus ustulatus, Vermivora ruficapilla, Dendroica magnolia, D. castanea, Seiurus aurocapillus). La riqueza de especies en bosques de llanura con relación a el bosque ripario fue un 58% mayor para los grupos de aves transitorias Neotropicales y un 75% mayor para las aves transitorias templadas. El porcentaje de cobertura de urbanización en un radio de 1 km no se relacionó con la abundancia de aves transitorias Neotropicales ni con las transitorias templadas. La abundancia de las aves transitorias Neotropicales y templadas no se relacionó con la cobertura de bosque dentro de un radio de 1 km. Los bosques maduros de llanura y los bosques riparios se diferenciaron en que los sitios de bosque ripario tuvieron menor cobertura de arbustos, una mayor cobertura de dosel y una composición de especies de árboles diferente. La abundancia de las aves transitorias Neotropicales se relacionó positivamente con la altura promedio del dosel, mientras que las aves transitorias templadas se relacionaron positivamente con el número promedio de árboles con DAP >38 cm y con la cobertura promedio de arbustos. Nuestros datos indican que los bosques maduros de llanuras fueron utilizados con mayor intensidad por aves migratorias terrestres que los bosques riparios en un paisaje urbanizado del medio-oeste, y que estos bosques pueden representar un tipo de hábitat valioso para la conservación de las aves migratorias terrestres en un paisaje altamente fragmentado.
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