Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Peters, Matthew P.

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06803.x

Cited by 42 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…More thorough assessments are available for both Michigan (Hoving et al 2013) (Matthews et al 2011a). Results from this work suggest that resident bird species are projected to fare better under a changing climate than are species that migrate over greater distances, which is consistent with recent observations of change (Chapter 3).…”

Section: Wildlifesupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Results from this work suggest that resident bird species are projected to fare better under a changing climate than are species that migrate over greater distances, which is consistent with recent observations of change (Chapter 3). Additionally, changes in suitable habitat of various bird species in the future are closely tied to changes in forest conditions (Matthews et al 2011a). …”

Section: Wildlifementioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Janowiak¹,

Iverson²,

Mladenoff³

et al. 2014

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Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 9 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce, quaking aspen, and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Upland spruce-fir, lowland conifers, aspen-birch, lowland-riparian hardwoods, and red pine forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. White pine and oak forests were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forestdependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning. ABSTRACT Cover PhotoLake of the Clouds in western Upper Michigan. Photo by Scott Pearson, used with permission.

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Section: Wildlifesupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Wildlifementioning

confidence: 99%

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Janowiak¹,

Iverson²,

Mladenoff³

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Previous studies examining the impacts of climate change on bird distributions in the United States and Canada have tended to focus on a single season and have either used a subset of available species (Peterson, 2003;Hitch & Leberg, 2007;Matthews et al, 2011;Stralberg et al, 2009) or coarse occurrence data based on range maps (Jetz et al, 2007;Lawler et al, 2009;Şekercioğlu et al, 2012). This is the first study to simultaneously predict the potential impacts of climate change on avian species in the United States and Canada across seasons, at a relatively fine spatial scale, for nearly all species for which standardized survey data are available.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biotic interactions are also thought to play an important role in shaping the distributions of some species, but are rarely captured explicitly within bioclimatic models (but see Stralberg et al, 2009;Matthews et al, 2011). This may pose serious problems for species distributions models that are generated from climate information alone, especially if characterisitcs of species interactions shift in response to climate change ( Van der Putten et al, 2010;Berg et al, 2010;Yang and Rudolph, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter survival of female American Black Ducks in Tennessee, USA

et al. 2016

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“…Thus, also the response time to changes in climate and land cover varies between species and between species groups. For some species conditions become more suitable through both climate-induced and land-use changes while other species are highly susceptible to changes in their habitat (see also Matthews et al 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preserving species populations in the boreal zone in a changing climate: contrasting trends of bird species groups in a protected area network

Virkkala¹,

Rajasärkkä²

2012

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Citation: Virkkala R, Rajasärkkä A (2012) Preserving species populations in the boreal zone in a changing climate: contrasting trends of bird species groups in a protected area network. Nature Conservation 3: 1-20. doi: 10.3897/ natureconservation.3.3635Abstract A protected area network should ensure the maintenance of biodiversity. Because of climate change, species ranges are expected to move polewards, causing further demand for the protected area network to be efficient in preserving biota. We compared population changes of different bird species groups according to their habitat preferences in boreal protected areas in Finland on the basis of large-scale censuses carried out in 1981-1999 and in 2000-2009. Population densities of common forest habitat generalists remained the same between the two periods, while densities of species of conservation concern showed contrasting trends: species preferring old-growth forests increased, but those living on mires and wetlands, and species of Arctic mountains decreased. These trends are most probably connected with climate change, but successional changes in protected areas and regional habitat alteration should also be taken into account. Of species preferring old-growth forests, a larger proportion are southern than among species of mires and wetlands, or of Arctic mountains, most or all of which, respectively, had a northerly distribution. In general, northern species have decreased and southern increased with the exception of northern species of old-growth forests which had not declined. On the other hand, bird species of mires and wetlands decreased also in the northernmost protected areas although mires had not been drained in the region in contrast with southern and central Finland thus indicating that regional-scale direct habitat loss did not cause the decline of these species in the north. It is suggested that climate change effects on species in natural boreal and Arctic habitats most probably are habitat-specific with large differences in response times and susceptibility.

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Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Cited by 42 publications

References 54 publications

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Winter survival of female American Black Ducks in Tennessee, USA

Preserving species populations in the boreal zone in a changing climate: contrasting trends of bird species groups in a protected area network

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