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Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth's biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/ or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for Ͼ2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for Ͼ100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO 2 . Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions.With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move Ͼ250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes.

AimWe describe and use a model, SHIFT, to estimate potential migration due to climate change over the next 100 years.Location Eastern United States.Methods Five species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, were used to assess migration potential: Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). SHIFT is a matrix simulation model using simple inverse power functions to provide a distance decay of seed dispersal and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, the forest density within and beyond the boundary, and the distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, the model creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied cell will become colonized over a period of 100 years. SHIFT is a 'fat-tailed' migration model that allows rare very long distance dispersal events and colonization could occur up to 500 km beyond the current distribution boundary. Model outputs were analysed using transects through sections showing relatively low and high colonization probabilities as a result of low and high densities of target trees (high source strength) as well as high densities of forest (high sink strength). We also assess migration potential for species by concentric rings around the current boundary. ResultsModel outputs show the generally limited nature of migration for all five species over 100 years. There is a relatively high probability of colonization within a zone of 10 -20 km (depending on habitat quality and species abundance) from the current boundary, but a small probability of colonization where the distance from the current boundary exceeds about 20 km. Whether biologically plausible or not, rare very long distance migration events are not sufficient to rescue migration. Species abundance (the source strength of migration) near the range boundary carried relatively more influence than percentage forest cover (sink strength) in determining migration rates. Main conclusionThe transect evaluation revealed the importance of abundance of the species near the boundary, indicating that rare species may have much more difficulty in unassisted northward migration due to climate change. The concentric rings analysis of the model outputs showed that only the first 10 -20 km of area would have a reasonably high probability of colonization. Rare, long-distance events permit colonization of remote outliers, but much more needs to be understood about the likelihood of these rare events to predict the frequency of outlier establishment.

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.

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We document an increase in oak and hickory advance regeneration, depending on landscape position, in the sixth year following mechanical thinning and repeated prescribed fires in southern Ohio, USA. Oak-dominated communities provide a multitude of human and natural resource values throughout the eastern United States, but their long-term sustainability is threatened throughout the region by poor regeneration. This study was established to assess regeneration following midstory thinning (late 2000) and prescribed fire application (2001 and 2005) at two sites in southern Ohio. Each of the four 20+ ha treatment units (two thin and burn, two untreated controls) were modeled for long-term moisture regime using the integrated moisture index (IMI), and a 50 m grid of sampling points was established throughout the units. Vegetation and canopy openness were sampled at each gridpoint before and after treatments, in 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006. The thin and burn treatment generally resulted in more advance regeneration (>50 cm height) of oak and hickory. The second fires in 2005 created additional landscape heterogeneity by causing variable tree mortality, and thus canopy openness, across the IMI gradient. The drier landscape positions generally had more intense fires, more canopy openness, and more oak and hickory advance regeneration; several other tree species also exhibited marked landscape variation in regeneration after treatments. Though advance regeneration of several competing species became abundant after the initial treatments, the second fires reduced the high densities of the two major competitors, Acer rubrum and Liriodendron tulipifera. Two simple models were developed: (1) a model of oak ''competitiveness'' based on the plot data related to advance regeneration of oaks and competitors and (2) a model estimating the probability of a plot becoming 'competitive for oak' based on canopy openness, IMI class, and number of oak and hickory seedlings present. For dry or intermediate sites with at least 5000 oak and hickory seedlings/ha, opening the canopy to 8.5-19% followed by at least two fires should promote oak and hickory to be 'competitive' over about 50% of the area. However, no appreciable oak and hickory regeneration developed on mesic sites. Overall, these results suggest promise for partial harvesting and repeated fires as a management strategy to reverse the accelerating loss of oak dominance in the central hardwoods region. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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