Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.07.023

Cited by 563 publications

(493 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Such changes are already being reported and modeling results predict a general trend of habitat suitability expansion northward for tree species [11,13,28]. Overall, our findings are consistent with this trend, suggesting that Tsuga canadensis will find more suitable habitat across Maine, which will generally support relatively low tree density.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Suitable habitat and tree species distributions have recently been produced for the U.S. at varying resolutions [11][12][13], often at landscape scale, for example, Iverson's [13] tree atlas has a resolution of 20 km. Forest management often takes place at the regional scale (i.e., 30 m) and forest managers, although they have been increasingly able to incorporate climate change considerations into their decision making, require practical ways in which to implement modeling results [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

Dunckel

Weiskittel

Fiske

2017

Forests

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Climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems around the world and is expected to alter the suitable habitat of individual tree species. Forest managers require resources about potential impacts of climate change at the regional scale to aid in climate mitigation efforts. By understanding the geographic distribution of changes in suitable habitat, migration corridors can be identified for conservation and active management. With the increased availability of climate projection data, ancillary Geographic Information Systems data, and field observations, modeling efforts at the regional scale are now possible. Here, we modeled and mapped the continuous distribution of Tsuga canadensis throughout the state of Maine at the regional scale(30 m) with high precision (89% of pixels had a coefficient of variation ≤ 4.0%). The random forest algorithm was used to create a strong prediction of suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2100 from both high and low emission climate projections. The results clearly suggest a significant gain in suitable habitat for Tsuga canadensis range with a general northwest expansion.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

Dunckel

Weiskittel

Fiske

2017

Forests

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“…Seasonal and monthly mean temperatures provide additional explanatory power in ecology and biogeography. These and other integrated measures (e.g., growing-degree days) are widely used in correlative models of species distribution (4)(5)(6)(7)(8), and perform well in predicting modern distribution and abundance patterns.…”

Section: Niche Dimensions and Proximal Controls: What Matters To Orgamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Correlative approaches have proliferated in the past decade (2), and are being widely applied to gauge implications of climate change. In these applications, observed patterns of species distribution and abundance are modeled empirically in multidimensional environmental space (typically comprising climatic and other physical variables), and the models are overlain onto simulated future environments (e.g., from general circulation model output) to predict future patterns (4)(5)(6)(7)(8). Healthy debate is underway concerning the assumptions underlying these applications (9)(10)(11)(12)(13).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Jackson¹,

Betancourt

Booth

et al. 2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

442

468

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Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.biogeography ͉ climate change ͉ paleoecology ͉ regeneration niche

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“…Guisan & Zimmermann 2000;Anderson et al 2003;Thuiller et al 2003;Araújo et al 2005aAraújo et al , 2005bLeathwick et al 2005;Araújo & Guisan 2006;Elith et al 2006;Phillips & Dudik 2008;Baselga & Araújo 2009;Franklin 2010), it is widely used to predict impacts of future climate change on species distributions (e.g. Currie 2001;Shafer et al 2001;Thuiller et al 2005Thuiller et al , 2006Hamann & Wang 2006;Heikkinen et al 2006;Rehfeldt et al 2006;Levinsky et al 2007;Huntley et al 2008;Iverson et al 2008;Jeschke & Strayer 2008;Thuiller et al 2008;Lawler et al 2009;Soberón & Nakamura 2009;Franklin 2010;Yates et al 2010). There is currently much debate about the basic assumptions underlying this approach (e.g.…”

Section: Basic Principles and One Or A Few Indicator Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Birks

2011

TOECOLJ

328

284

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Abstract:The importance of reconstructing past environments quantitatively in palaeoecology is reviewed by showing that many ecological questions asked of palaeoecological data commonly involve the reconstructions of past environment. Three basic approaches to reconstructing past climate from palaeoecological data are outlined and discussed in terms of their assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses. These approaches are the indicator-species approach involving bioclimateenvelope modelling; the assemblage approach involving modern analogue techniques and response surfaces; and the multivariate calibration-function approach. Topics common to all approaches are reviewed -presentation and interpretation, evaluation and validation, comparison, and general limitations of climate reconstructions. Challenges and possible future developments are presented and the potential future role of quantitative climate reconstructions in palaeoecology is summarised.

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Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

Cited by 563 publications

References 45 publications

Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

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