Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Birks, H. John B.

doi:10.2174/1874213001003020068

Cited by 337 publications

(300 citation statements)

References 370 publications

(638 reference statements)

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“…Biological proxies remain important in all settings, for example indicator species of wetlands, seagrass, or ice cover and multispecies "transfer functions" used to infer temperature and salinity (57). However, as with niche models that use present-day bioclimatic associations to anticipate the future redistribution of species (see paleontologic tests of their reliability by refs.…”

Section: Proxy Evidence Of (Paleo)environmentalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, as with niche models that use present-day bioclimatic associations to anticipate the future redistribution of species (see paleontologic tests of their reliability by refs. 58 and 59), there are concerns that the transfer-ecology approach is vulnerable to (i) failure of observed species' distributions to reflect their full tolerances, (ii) inability to account for shifting biotic interactions and evolutionary adaptation, and (iii) assumptions of the statistical methods used (57,60). Analysis of paleo-environmental conditions, including pollution and many aspects of ecosystem structure, has thus shifted increasingly from taxonomic to other biological, physical, and especially chemical evidence [isotopic and elemental ratios; environmental aDNA; molecular biomarkers of metabolism and organic-matter source; and indicator minerals of oxidation potential (Eh), pH, and salinity], achieving a new level of independence from ecological assumptions and expanding the dimensions of inference (e.g., refs.…”

Section: Proxy Evidence Of (Paleo)environmentalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

Kidwell

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

125

103

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With overwhelming evidence of change in habitats, biologists today must assume that few, if any, study areas are natural and that biological variability is superimposed on trends rather than stationary means. Paleobiological data from the youngest sedimentary record, including death assemblages actively accumulating on modern land surfaces and seabeds, provide unique information on the status of present-day species, communities, and biomes over the last few decades to millennia and on their responses to natural and anthropogenic environmental change. Key advances have established the accuracy and resolving power of paleobiological information derived from naturally preserved remains and of proxy evidence for environmental conditions and sample age so that fossil data can both implicate and exonerate human stressors as the drivers of biotic change and permit the effects of multiple stressors to be disentangled. Legacy effects from Industrial and even pre-Industrial anthropogenic extirpations, introductions, (de)nutrification, and habitat conversion commonly emerge as the primary factors underlying the present-day status of populations and communities; within the last 2 million years, climate change has rarely been sufficient to drive major extinction pulses absent other human pressures, which are now manifold. Young fossil records also provide rigorous access to the baseline composition and dynamics of modern-day biota under pre-Industrial conditions, where insights include the millennial-scale persistence of community structures, the dominant role of physical environmental conditions rather than biotic interactions in determining community composition and disassembly, and the existence of naturally alternating states.biodiversity | ecology | conservation | paleobiology | paleoecology

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Section: Proxy Evidence Of (Paleo)environmentalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Proxy Evidence Of (Paleo)environmentalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

Kidwell

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

125

103

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“…Testate amoebaebased hydrological transfer functions have been developed in many parts of the world; Alaska (Markel et al, 2010;Payne et al, 2006), Canada (Charman and Warner, 1997;Warner and Charman, 1994), Europe , Greece (Payne and Mitchell, 2007), New Zealand (Charman, 1997;Wilmshurst et al, 2003), North America (Booth, 2008;Booth and Zygmunt, 2005), Northern Ireland ), Switzerland (Mitchell et al, 1999), Poland (Lamentowicz et al, 2008;Lamentowicz and Mitchell, 2005), and the United Kingdom (Woodland et al, 1998). Due to spatial autocorrelation (Borcard et al, 1992;Lennon, 2000), transfer functions require validation against data sets that are completely independent of the training set (Belyea, 2007;Birks et al, 2010). However, very few models are rigorously tested using spatially independent data and it has been suggested that they may generate reconstructions of unrealistic accuracy Telford and Birks, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing regional and supra-regional transfer functions for palaeohydrological reconstruction from Holocene peatlands

Turner

Swindles

Charman

et al. 2013

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

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Testate amoebae-based transfer functions are commonly used in peatland palaeoclimate studies. These models have been developed in several regions of the world and are sometimes used for palaeohydrological reconstruction from fossil data in locations where no transfer functions exist. Limitations of this approach may include missing modern analogues and problems associated with site-specific or regional factors in testate amoebae ecology and biogeography. This study presents new testate amoebae-hydrology transfer functions based on data from six peatlands in Northern England. Transfer functions were generated for water table depth and moisture content using weighted averaging tolerance downweighted regression with inverse deshrinking and model performance was assessed using leave-one-out (jacknifing) cross-validation.To examine the robustness of applying transfer functions extra-regionally, we performed a number of spatially independent cross-validation (SICV) tests using contemporary testate amoebae and environmental data from established Northern Ireland and European transfer functions. Inferred water table depths were consistent with observed values in terms of position along the hydrological gradient, however magnitudes varied. We then applied the three independent transfer functions to fossil data from a peatland in Northern England to compare the reconstructions. The results show that the direction of the reconstructions is consistent in terms of wet/dry shifts.However, variation in the magnitudes of the reconstructed water tables is apparent.This probably reflects the sampling regime, including temporal/seasonal effects, and differences in testate amoebae ecology between regions and individual sites.

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“…However, the four types of pollen traps always yield different pollen assemblages even if they are collected from the same site (e.g., Fall, 1992;Wilmshurt and McGlone, 2005a;Lisitsyna et al, 2012;). Consequently, many palynologists (e.g., Seppa et al, 2004;Birks et al, 2010) emphasize that the modern pollen calibration set for quantitatively reconstructing palaeoclimate should be established based on the pollen data from surface lake sediments because most fossil pollen data are extracted from lacustrine sediments (such as lake cores).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modern pollen assemblages from surface lake sediments in northwestern China and their importance as indicators of vegetation and climate

Feng

Zhao

et al. 2015

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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The modern pollen assemblages of surface lake sediments and topsoils in northwestern China were studied to understand the relationship of modern pollen data with contemporary vegetation and climate, and the differences between the pollen assemblages of surface lake sediments and topsoils. The results show that Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia are dominant elements in the pollen assemblages of northwestern China. Additionally, Ephedra, Cyperaceae, Asteraceae, Poaceae, Picea, Pinus, and Betula are also important pollen taxa. Both pollen assemblages and principal component analysis indicate that pollen data from surface lake sediments and topsoils can be used to differentiate the main vegetation types of this region (desert, steppe, meadow and forest). However, differences exist between modern pollen assemblages of the two types of sediments due to the different relevant source areas of pollen and degrees of pollen preservation. For example, the larger relevant source area of surface lake sediment results in a higher abundance of Betula in pollen assemblage from surface lake sediment, whereas the tendency to disintegrate thin-walled pollen types in topsoil leads to a higher proportion of resistant pollen, such as Asteraceae. Linear regression analysis indicates that the Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae (A/C) ratio in pollen assemblages of surface lake sediments can be used to indicate humidity changes in the study area. However, the A/C ratio in topsoils should be used carefully. Our results suggest that pollen data from surface lake sediments would be better references for interpreting the fossil pollen assemblages of lake cores or lacustrine profiles. Pollen data have been used to unravel the vegetation succession and climatic changes of the past since the pioneering work of von Post in 1916(Davis, 2000. The deciphering of fossil pollen data must be performed on the basis of the investigation of modern pollen assemblages. Numerous studies (e.g., Wright et al., 1967;Gaillard et al., 1992;Sugita, 1994;Cour et al., 1999;Davis, 2000;Shen et al., 2006;Ma et al., 2008;Zhao and Herzschuh, 2009;Herzschuh et al., 2010;Lu et al., 2011;Fall, 2012;Zheng et al., 2013;Tian et al., 2014) have been conducted to understand the relationship of modern pollen assemblages with contemporary vegetation and climate. Modern pollen assemblages are mainly collected from airborne pollen collectors (e.g., Cour et al

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Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

Cited by 337 publications

References 370 publications

Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

Comparing regional and supra-regional transfer functions for palaeohydrological reconstruction from Holocene peatlands

Modern pollen assemblages from surface lake sediments in northwestern China and their importance as indicators of vegetation and climate

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