The discourse on the need for water, energy, and food security has dominated the development agenda of southern African countries, centred on improving livelihoods, building resilience, and regional integration. About 60% of the population in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) live in rural areas relying mainly on rainfed agriculture, lacking access to clean water and energy, yet the region is endowed with vast natural resources. The waterenergy-food (WEF) nexus is a conceptual framework that presents opportunities for greater resource coordination, management, and policy convergence across sectors. This is particularly relevant in the SADC region as resources are transboundary and supports efforts linked to regional integration and inclusive socioeconomic development and security. We conducted an appraisal of WEF-related policies and institutions in SADC and identified linkages among them. The present 'silo' approach in resource management and allocation, often conducted at the national level, contributes to the region's failure to meet its development targets, exacerbating its vulnerabilities. The lack of coordination of WEF nexus synergies and trade-offs in planning often threatens the sustainability of development initiatives. We highlighted the importance of the WEF nexus to sustainably address the sectoral coordination of resources through harmonised institutions and policies, as well as setting targets and indicators to direct and monitor nexus developments. We illustrate the significance of the nexus in promoting inclusive development and transforming vulnerable communities into resilient societies. The study recommends a set of integrated assessment models to monitor and evaluate the implementation of WEF nexus targets. Going forward, we propose the adoption of a regional WEF nexus framework.

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Main conclusion Orphan crops can contribute to building resilience of marginal cropping systems as a climate chnage adaptation strategy. Orphan crops play an important role in global food and nutrition security, and may have potential to contribute to sustainable food systems under climate change. Owing to reports of their potential under water scarcity, there is an argument to promote them to sustainably address challenges such as increasing drought and water scarcity, food and nutrition insecurity, environmental degradation, and employment creation under climate change. We conducted a scoping review using online databases to identify the prospects of orphan crops to contribute to (1) sustainable and healthy food systems, (2) genetic resources for future crop improvement, and (3) improving agricultural sustainability under climate change. The review found that, as a product of generations of landrace agriculture, several orphan crops are nutritious, resilient, and adapted to niche marginal agricultural environments. Including such orphan crops in the existing monocultural cropping systems could support more sustainable, nutritious, and diverse food systems in marginalised agricultural environments. Orphan crops also represent a broad gene pool for future crop improvement. The reduction in arable land due to climate change offers opportunities to expand the area under their production. Their suitability to marginal niche and low-input environments offers opportunities for low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agro-ecosystems, production, and processing perspective. This, together with their status as a sub-set of agro-biodiversity, offers opportunities to address socio-economic and environmental challenges under climate change. With research and development, and policy to support them, orphan crops could play an important role in climate-change adaptation, especially in the global south.

About 60% of southern Africa’s population lives in rural areas with limited access to basic services and amenities such as clean and safe water, affordable and clean energy, and balanced and nutritious diets. Resource scarcity has direct and indirect impacts on nutrition, human health, and well-being of mostly poor rural communities. Climate change impacts in the region are manifesting through low crop yields, upsurge of vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever), and water and food-borne diseases (cholera and diarrhoea). This study applied a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus analytical livelihoods model with complex systems understanding to assess rural livelihoods, health, and well-being in southern Africa, recommending tailor-made adaptation strategies for the region aimed at building resilient rural communities. The WEF nexus is a decision support tool that improves rural livelihoods through integrated resource distribution, planning, and management, and ensures inclusive socio-economic transformation and development, and addresses related sustainable development goals, particularly goals 2, 3, 6 and 7. The integrated WEF nexus index for the region was calculated at 0.145, which is marginally sustainable, and indicating the region’s exposure to vulnerabilities, and reveals a major reason why the region fails to meet its developmental targets. The integrated relationship among WEF resources in southern Africa shows an imbalance and uneven resource allocation, utilisation and distribution, which normally results from a ‘siloed’ approach in resource management. The WEF nexus provides better adaptation options, as it guides decision making processes by identifying priority areas needing intervention, enhancing synergies, and minimising trade-offs necessary for resilient rural communities. Our results identified (i) the trade-offs and unintended negative consequences for poor rural households’ livelihoods of current silo approaches, (ii) mechanisms for sustainably enhancing household water, energy and food security, whilst (iii) providing direction for achieving SDGs 2, 3, 6 and 7.

Climate change is a complex and cross-cutting problem that needs an integrated and transformative systems approach to respond to the challenge. Current sectoral approaches to climate change adaptation initiatives often create imbalances and retard sustainable development. Regional and international literature on climate change adaptation opportunities and challenges applicable to southern Africa from a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus perspective was reviewed. Specifically, this review highlights climate change impacts on water, energy, and food resources in southern Africa, while exploring mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The review further recommends strategies to develop cross-sectoral sustainable measures aimed at building resilient communities. Regional WEF nexus related institutions and legal frameworks were also reviewed to relate the WEF nexus to policy. Southern Africa is witnessing an increased frequency and intensity in climate change-associated extreme weather events, causing water, food, and energy insecurity. A projected reduction of 20% in annual rainfall by 2080 in southern Africa will only increase the regional socio-economic challenges. This is exacerbating regional resource scarcities and vulnerabilities. It will also have direct and indirect impacts on nutrition, human well-being, and health. Reduced agricultural production, lack of access to clean water, sanitation, and clean, sustainable energy are the major areas of concern. The region is already experiencing an upsurge of vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever), and water and food-borne diseases (cholera and diarrhoea). What is clear is that climate change impacts are cross-sectoral and multidimensional, and therefore require cross-sectoral mitigation and adaptation approaches. In this regard, a well-coordinated and integrated WEF nexus approach offers opportunities to build resilient systems, harmonise interventions, and mitigate trade-offs and hence improve sustainability. This would be achieved through greater resource mobilisation and coordination, policy convergence across sectors, and targeting nexus points in the landscape. The WEF nexus approach has potential to increase the resilience of marginalised communities in southern Africa by contributing towards attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 13).

Agriculture remains important in driving economic transformation, sustainable livelihoods, and development in developing countries. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agriculture sectors and implications for the attainment of developmental outcomes such as food security, poverty reduction, and sustainable development in Southern Africa. The review gives policy messages for coping, adapting, and building resilience of water and agricultural production systems in the face of projected changes in climate and variability. The aim is to guide the region towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Future projections for Southern Africa indicate reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and high variability for the greater part of the region with severe reductions on the drier and marginal western parts. These impacts have profound implications for agriculture performance and contribution to national and regional developmental goals. The region is projected to experience reductions of between 15% and 50% in agricultural productivity, a scenario that would exacerbate food insecurity in the region. The challenge is to increase productivity on current arable land through efficient and sustainable management of available water and energy, and at the same time reducing pressure on the environment. Affordability and accessibility of innovative adaptation measures on water resources remain critical and these strategies should be part of broader sustainable development efforts. Overall, efforts to enhance agricultural productivity need to emphasise investments in sustainable management and use of water and energy resources in agriculture to achieve sustainable economic growth and livelihoods.

Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecastingcomponent, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and managedroughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.

BackgroundWhile there is growing recognition of the malaria impacts of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa, the cumulative malaria impact of reservoirs associated with current and future dam developments has not been quantified. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and predict the future impact of large dams on malaria in different eco-epidemiological settings across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsThe locations of 1268 existing and 78 planned large dams in sub-Saharan Africa were mapped against the malaria stability index (stable, unstable and no malaria). The Plasmodium falciparum infection rate (PfIR) was determined for populations at different distances (<1, 1–2, 2–5, 5–9 km) from the associated reservoirs using the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and WorldPop databases. Results derived from MAP were verified by comparison with the results of detailed epidemiological studies conducted at 11 dams.ResultsOf the 1268 existing dams, 723 are located in malarious areas. Currently, about 15 million people live in close proximity (<5 km) to the reservoirs associated with these dams. A total of 1.1 million malaria cases annually are associated with them: 919,000 cases due to the presence of 416 dams in areas of unstable transmission and 204,000 cases due to the presence of 307 dams in areas of stable transmission. Of the 78 planned dams, 60 will be located in malarious areas and these will create an additional 56,000 cases annually. The variation in annual PfIR in communities as a function of distance from reservoirs was statistically significant in areas of unstable transmission but not in areas of stable transmission.ConclusionIn sub-Saharan Africa, dams contribute significantly to malaria risk particularly in areas of unstable transmission. Additional malaria control measures are thus required to reduce the impact of dams on malaria.