Preparedness or repeated short-term relief aid? Building drought resilience through early warning in southern Africa

Abstract

Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecastingcomponent, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and managedroughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.

Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

“…Climate change has been widely studied in southern Africa, showing historical trends of climatic variables over time as well as projected future scenarios and impacts [13,[25][26][27][28]. Climate models agree that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will be greatly affected by climate change and variability due to underdeveloped, lack of resources to adapt and poor institutional and legal frameworks [1,13]. Whilst the anticipated climate change impacts in the region are well studied, little has been done on the impacts of the decreasing rainfall on cereal production.…”

“…Small-scale farming dominate the agriculture sector in terms of agricultural land coverage, cultivating about 80% of the cultivated land and contributing about 90% of agriculture produce [30]. Dependence on rainfed agriculture and the use of traditional methods of farming exacerbates the vulnerability of the smallholder farmers in particular and the whole region at large, to the vagaries of climate change, because once there is a drought there will be total crop failure [1]. These are some of the causes of the endemic food deficits in the region.…”

“…These are some of the causes of the endemic food deficits in the region. Besides the huge investments in agriculture and the evidence of increased crop yield, agriculture continues struggling to meet the growing food requirements of an increasing population [1]. The level of food insecurity is already very high, particularly in rural settlements and many countries depend on international food aid to supplement for the yield deficits [1,31].…”

“…Although the irrigated area occupies only 6.6% of cultivated land, productivity from irrigated agriculture is three times bigger than productivity from rainfed agriculture [33]. There is potential of untapped groundwater resources that can be used to supplement water deficits during periods of drought and during the dry winter season [1,34]. This is very crucial for a region where agriculture is the major driver of economic growth.…”

“…Understanding moisture trends (both soil moisture and rainfall) is critical in projecting future crop production under changing climatic conditions [1,2]. Previous studies have shown that climate variability and change will affect current and future farming and food systems as environments are substantially modified due to shifts in seasons [3][4][5][6].…”