Abstract:BackgroundWhile there is growing recognition of the malaria impacts of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa, the cumulative malaria impact of reservoirs associated with current and future dam developments has not been quantified. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and predict the future impact of large dams on malaria in different eco-epidemiological settings across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsThe locations of 1268 existing and 78 planned large dams in sub-Saharan Africa were mapped against the … Show more
“…However, in areas of unstable transmission, the annual malaria incidence is likely to increase twofold to threefold in the 2080s when compared to 2010 and this difference was statistically significant (χ 2 = 13.061; df = 2; P < 0.001) in both RCPs.Fig. 2Estimated average annual malaria incidence in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in communities living close to (<5 km) and further away (5–10 km) from dam-associated reservoirs in sub-Saharan Africa, using two future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).Data for 2010 is included for comparison: source Kibret et al [11]…”
BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change.MethodsThe distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs.ResultsThe number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21–23 million in the 2020s, 25–26 million in the 2050s and 28–29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2–1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1–3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4–3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6.ConclusionIn the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected. Modifying conventional water management frameworks to improve malaria control, holds the potential to mitigate some of this increase and should be more actively implemented.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1498-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
“…However, in areas of unstable transmission, the annual malaria incidence is likely to increase twofold to threefold in the 2080s when compared to 2010 and this difference was statistically significant (χ 2 = 13.061; df = 2; P < 0.001) in both RCPs.Fig. 2Estimated average annual malaria incidence in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in communities living close to (<5 km) and further away (5–10 km) from dam-associated reservoirs in sub-Saharan Africa, using two future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).Data for 2010 is included for comparison: source Kibret et al [11]…”
BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change.MethodsThe distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs.ResultsThe number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21–23 million in the 2020s, 25–26 million in the 2050s and 28–29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2–1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1–3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4–3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6.ConclusionIn the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected. Modifying conventional water management frameworks to improve malaria control, holds the potential to mitigate some of this increase and should be more actively implemented.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1498-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
“…Environmental modification such as dam construction has long been recognized to enhance LF transmission by creating ideal breeding sites for mosquito vectors, thereby bringing both the vectors and disease closer to the people [4]. As Nigeria continues its implementation on the LF Elimination Programme, a basic problem envisaged is the dearth of information on the distribution of LF in most endemic states of the country [5].…”
“…Dams may also adversely affect public health. For example, WLE research has shown that by providing breeding habitat for anopheles mosquitoes, 1,268 large dams in subSaharan Africa elevate the risk of malaria for 15 million people and cause at least 1.1 million people to contract the disease each year (Kibret et al 2015). If mitigation measures are not improved, these numbers could triple by the end of the century as a result of population growth in combination with climate change-without even considering effects of new dam construction (Kibret et al 2016).…”
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