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Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single ÔbestÕ model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily -strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.

AimWe explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum , H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America.Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030.Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusionsThis study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2°C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in . Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2°C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1°C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.climate impacts | climate model ensemble | conservation B iodiversity and the maintenance of associated ecosystem goods and services are vital for human well-being, yet despite increases in conservation activity, the loss of biodiversity continues (1, 2). Although habitat degradation, fragmentation, and destruction, overexploitation, and invasive species have driven recent biodiversity loss, climate change is projected to be a major driver of extinction throughout the 21st century, both directly and via synergies with other stressors (3-6).The rate of global climate change increased through the 20th century, and should emissions of greenhouse gases continue at or above current rates, warming in the 21st century will very likely exceed that observed over the 20th century (7). The impacts of these changes on biological systems are manifested as shifts in phenology, interactions, species distributions, morphology (8-13), and net primary productivity (14). Ultimately, the ability of species and ecosystems to respond positively to climate change will depend on species-specific characteristics (e.g., potential for rapid adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, or dispersal capability; ref. 12), current and future anthropogenic threats, the extent to which future climate regimes present conditions beyond those previously experienced, and the natural res...

Summary1. The potential invasive success of exotic plant species is thought to be associated with similarity in climate and biome between the original and novel range. We tested this assumption by quantifying the match between the realized climatic niches and biomes occupied in the exotic and native range of 26 plant species introduced to Australia. We then explored correlations between the propensity to shift climatic niche with residence time, invasion status, geographic range size, and species traits. 2. Occurrence data from the native and exotic range of 26 species introduced to Australia were obtained, and the overlap between native and exotic climate niches was calculated using betweenclass analysis. Shifts into novel biomes were assessed using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Correlations between introduction, distribution and species traits and the degree of climate matching were examined using nonparametric statistical tests. 3. Exotic species frequently occurred in climatic conditions outside those occupied in their native range (20 of 26 species). Nineteen species inhabited biomes in Australia not occupied in the native range and in some instances this shift represented the establishment of populations in novel biomes not present in the native range. No single-species trait, introduction or distributional characteristic was significantly associated with the degree of climatic niche shift. 4. Synthesis. Exotic species are able to occupy climate niches in the new range that differ substantially from those of the native range, and generally do not show biome conservatism between their native and introduced ranges. This implies that novel climatic conditions are not a major obstacle for exotic species establishing populations outside their native range. These results have important implications for the use and interpretation of ecological niche models used to predict the distribution of species in novel climates in time or space. The results also highlight the importance of alternate mechanisms, such as enemy release, phenotypic plasticity or rapid evolution, in the establishment of naturalized and invasive populations.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.