Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events

Harris, Rebecca M. B.; Beaumont, Linda J.; Vance, Tessa R.; Tozer, Carly R.; Remenyi, Tomas A.; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Mitchell, Patrick J.; Nicotra, Adrienne B.; McGregor, Shayne; Andrew, Nigel R.; Letnic, Mike; Kearney, Michael R.; Wernberg, Thomas; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Chambers, Lynda E.; Fletcher, Michael‐Shawn; Keatley, Marie R.; Woodward, Clifford; Williamson, Grant J.; Duke, Norman C.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0187-9

Cited by 376 publications

(384 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…While widespread ecological changes following extreme events may prove to be lasting or even irreversible (Harris et al, ; Pisaric et al, ), long‐term observational studies also provide valuable insights into how ecosystems can recover following an extreme event (Capon et al, ). For example, near Glacier Bay, Alaska, the density of pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) decreased by 90% following a major rainfall event that caused substantial geomorphic change to stream channels.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…for <1 year and did not monitor species or ecosystem recovery fol- While widespread ecological changes following extreme events may prove to be lasting or even irreversible (Harris et al, 2018;Pisaric et al, 2011), long-term observational studies also provide valuable insights into how ecosystems can recover following an extreme event (Capon et al, 2015). For example, near Glacier Bay, Alaska, the density of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This focus has improved our overall understanding of how climate change is shaping the environment (Scheffers et al, 2016) but has left many conservation plans unprepared for changes in the frequency and distribution of extreme weather and climate events (Chapman et al, 2014;Jones et al, 2016). Moreover, it is increasingly recognized that changes in climate extremes can have greater environmental consequences than changes in climate means (Bailey & van de Pol, 2016;Gutschick & BassiriRad, 2003;Harris et al, 2018;Maron, McAlpine, Watson, Maxwell, & Barnard, 2015;Vasseur et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Maxwell

Butt

Maron

et al. 2018

Diversity and Distributions

187

162

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Aim Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts. Location Global. Methods Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves. Results Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Maxwell

Butt

Maron

et al. 2018

Diversity and Distributions

187

162

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Climate models and observations (Knutson et al, 2010) also point toward more intense and frequent Atlantic hurricanes, which has the potential to severely disrupt spring migration (Dionne, Maurice, Gauthier, & Shaffer, 2008). In contrast to changes in WA that will develop over many decades, extreme weather events are immediate and, when combined with long-term climate trends, can result in significant ecological consequences (Harris et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Sorte

Horton

Nilsson

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.

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“…However, changes to climate might negatively impact those long-established patterns of local adaptation (Aitken & Whitlock, 2013;Hoffmann & Sgrò, 2011). While it may be many years until the full effects of global climate change are realized, the effects on local forest populations have already been observed (Harris et al, 2018;Hoffmann et al, 2019). For example, climate change impacts include changes in forest distribution (Kelly & Goulden, 2008;Lenoir et al, 2010) and widespread tree mortality due to increased severity of drought and heat waves (Allen et al, 2010;Matusick et al, 2018;Williams & Dumroese, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change

Ahrens

Andrew

Mazanec³

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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1. Climate change is testing the resilience of forests worldwide pushing physiological tolerance to climatic extremes. Plant functional traits have been shown to be adapted to climate and have evolved patterns of trait correlations (similar patterns of distribution) and coordinations (mechanistic trade-off). We predicted that traits would differentiate between populations associated with climatic gradients, suggestive of adaptive variation, and correlated traits would adapt to future climate scenarios in similar ways. 2. We measured genetically determined trait variation and described patterns of correlation for seven traits: photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), δ 13 C (integrated water-use efficiency, WUE), nitrogen concentration (N CONC ), and wood density (WD). All measures were conducted in an experimental plantation on 960 trees sourced from 12 populations of a key forest canopy species in southwestern Australia.3. Significant differences were found between populations for all traits. Narrowsense heritability was significant for five traits (0.15-0.21), indicating that natural selection can drive differentiation; however, SLA (0.08) and PRI (0.11) were not significantly heritable. Generalized additive models predicted trait values across the landscape for current and future climatic conditions (>90% variance). The percent change differed markedly among traits between current and future predictions (differing as little as 1.5% (δ 13 C) or as much as 30% (PRI)). Some trait correlations were predicted to break down in the future (SLA:N CONC , δ 13 C:PRI, and N CONC :WD). 4. Synthesis: Our results suggest that traits have contrasting genotypic patterns and will be subjected to different climate selection pressures, which may lower the working optimum for functional traits. Further, traits are independently associated with different climate factors, indicating that some trait correlations may be | 233 AHRENS Et Al.

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Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events

Cited by 376 publications

References 81 publications

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change

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